The offseason is here, and there are a lot of questions with Boston’s roster as Danny Ainge dives into the next chapter of this rebuilding process. In this series, I’ll be looking at what the Celtics choices are with certain players considering their past performance and where the team is going. We continue with one of the team’s two players with non-guaranteed contracts for next season, Amir Johnson.
Past players profiled: Evan Turner | Jared Sullinger | Tyler Zeller
At a glance:
2015-16 regular statistics: 7.3 ppg, 6.4 reb, 1.7 ast, 1.2 to, 1.1 blk, 58.5% fg, 57% ft
2015-16 advanced statistics: 60.2% TS, 14.9 reb%, 11.4 ast%, 3.6 blk%, 13.6 usg, 16.0 PER
Age to start next season: 29
Last season’s salary: $12,000,000
Non-guaranteed salary for next season: $12,000,000
How he played this season
Amir Johnson had a decent season in Boston. His raw numbers were OK… I’m sure we were expecting more than 8 double-doubles this season… but his advanced numbers show he was pretty important. He was third in win shares (an estimated number of wins a player is directly responsible for), and second in win shares per 48 minutes (behind Isaiah Thomas, and ahead of Jae Crowder). Using ESPN’s real plus/minus, which drills down a players impact on the team better than simple +/- numbers, Johnson was not only third on the team (behind Crowder and Jared Sullinger), he was 30th in the entire league (yes, the Celtics had 3 guys in the top 30 and none was Isaiah Thomas).
The point is, Amir Johnson played well this season, especially towards the end of the year and in the playoffs as his plantar fasciitis went away. He has an ugly little jump hook that manages to go in a lot (he led the team in true shooting %), and he’s a really good help defender despite not being a premier shot blocker. The Celtics, in general, were better with him on the floor.
It wasn’t all great, though. That slowly expanding range abandoned here in Boston. And there were several times that I had to be reminded that he was only 28-years-old considering how awkwardly he moved. If his ankles/feet are going to continue to be an issue, is this someone who the Celtics can count on for a solid 82 games?
What do the Boston Celtics do with him?
Danny Ainge has a gem in his back pocket with Amir Johnson. The $12 million for next season isn’t guaranteed until July 3, so Ainge has a big non-guaranteed deal to toss into the mix for a trade. A lot of teams have cap space, so salary matching requirements aren’t in play, and a waive-able guy isn’t AS important, but it’s a nice chip to have. A team like the Clippers, for example, could use some cap relief to re-sign some of its role players. A deal for, let’s say, Blake Griffin could net the Clips an improved bench, cap relief, and draft picks to build on.
That’s obviously a hypothetical, but it shows where I think this Celtics team is going with Johnson. They’ll be shopping him in every deal as a way for other teams to free up even MORE money as they chase franchise-changing free agents or even try to get below a certain owner-imposed financial threshold.
If he’s not moved by the draft, then Ainge basically has a couple of days to gauge the commitments of other free agents to determine if they’ll need that $12 million slot for a big name or multiple upgraded role players. If not, the team could decide to bring him back for the one more year he has left before going for the big free agent haul in the summer of ’17.
The bottom line is, I think Danny Ainge will try to move Johnson as part of a package on or before draft night. Even if Johnson survives that, I think he only comes back if Ainge feels like he’ll miss out on bigger names this summer. I also won’t rule out the team declining the option and then trying to re-sign him for less… but I don’t think that will be well received.
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