What should we expect from Jameson Taillon this season?

We take a look at how Jameson Taillon might do this season compared to how Gerrit Cole did his rookie year.

Tonight marks one of the defining moments of this season for the Pirates: highly-regarded pitching prospect Jameson Taillon is set to make his major league debut. Whether this means he’s up for good or not is yet to be seen, but it will nonetheless be an exciting night for Pirates fans everywhere. It’s important for us not to over-analyze his first start, as he’ll surely be nervous. More importantly, however, it gives many fans their first chance to see Taillon pitch, and it gives Taillon his first full start to face major league batters throughout a lineup.

The last major pitching prospect to debut for the Pirates was Gerrit Cole, the current ace of the staff. He was also a top-two draft pick, and both he and Taillon were expected to be the future of the Pirates’ pitching staff for years to come. That could still happen. Taillon relies on his high-velocity fastball, like Cole, and both pitchers also try to limit walks as often as possible, and do so well. And although these two pitchers are different in many areas, I still decided to look back at how Cole’s rookie year went to give an idea of what kind of expectation we can have for Taillon this year, seeing as Cole’s the closest comparable top pitching prospect in recent years for the Pirates.

First, let’s take a look at their minor league numbers. Cole had a 2.75 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, along with 8.1 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in his minor league career. Taillon’s career minor league stats to date are: 3.49 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, and 2.4 BB/9. The only area where Cole is significantly better than Taillon over their minor league careers is in ERA, and Taillon actually walked almost one less batter per nine innings than Cole did.

What about their stats in the minors the season they were called up to the majors? Cole: 2.91 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, and 3.7 BB/9. Taillon: 2.04 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, and 0.9 BB/9. The stats in this regard heavily favor Taillon, who has dominated in Indianapolis this season.

Now, stats can be deceiving. Top prospects frequently spend their time in the minors working on pitches and trying to improve in different areas. But once a player reaches Triple-A, especially in regards to a top prospect, and his call-up is nearing and inevitable, stats can paint a good picture. They’re trying to get ready for the majors, and are consistently trying to perform well on the stat sheet to force the major league team’s hand. Taillon has certainly delivered in Indianapolis this year.

How did Cole do once he reached the majors? Well, not too shabby. Across 19 starts, he pitched to a 3.22 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9. His K/9 rate improved from his time in Indianapolis that season, as did his BB/9. He went on to pitch to a 2.45 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP in two postseason starts. Cole was, essentially, thrown into the fire of a playoff race and was in the postseason rotation that year. He helped the Pirates’ rotation in a big way that season, and has developed into an ace since that point.

Will Taillon pitch as well, or even better than, Cole did in his stint with the Pirates this year? It’s tough to say. For one, the performance of rookies, even those that are top prospects, is often random. Top prospects frequently struggle, as the jump to the majors is greater than any other jump a prospect has ever made before. Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw struggled out of the gate, as did the Pirates’ own Gregory Polanco. But all three of those guys have flipped a switch since then. Other times, prospects come out of the gate on fire, as Kris Bryant did last season.

Only time will tell how Taillon will perform this season. If he pitches like Cole did in 2013, that would be a huge success in my book. But no team should bank on the success of rookies in a playoff race, and if Taillon struggles, fans shouldn’t write him off as a bust. Ideally, he’ll help the Pirates’ rotation this season. If he lives up to his billing, he will make a nasty one-two punch next to Cole for years to come.

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