What Goes Up Must Come Down

Which lottery players who impressed during the 2013-14 season will have a tough time matching such success in 2014-15?

Isaiah Thomas

Whether you think Eric Bledsoe’s troublesome knees are worth the five-year, $70 million investment or not, the Suns should be an exciting team to watch again this year. When Isaiah Thomas signed with Phoenix this summer it appeared the Suns were preparing for the possibility that a Bledsoe deal wouldn’t get done. After averaging 20.3 points and 6.3 assists in 34.7 minutes per game with the Sacramento Kings last year, Thomas is in for a reduced role in 2014-15 coming off the bench behind Bledsoe and Goran Dragic.

Barring another Bledsoe injury, Thomas’ averages may even dip below his career averages of 15.3 points and 4.8 assists in 29.1 minutes per game. Just to clarify, I have loved Thomas’ game since his days at the University of Washington, and believe he will fare well in his new role—but it would be quite a stretch to argue that he’ll be able to make the same impact in 2014-15—at least statistically speaking.

Randy Foye

After falling a few makes short of Dale Ellis’ team record for 3-pointers made in a single season, Foye is another player who’s in for a lesser role in 2014-15. With the additions of Arron Afflalo and Gary Harris, Foye still figures to see some time at shooting guard, but will primarily operate as Ty Lawson’s backup during the beginning of the year. Nate Robinson probably won’t be back before Christmas, but when he does make his return that’ll just be one more person Foye has to fight for minutes. Unless the Nuggets get hit with similar serious injury troubles Foye will not be producing like he was in 2013-14.

Nick Young

Swaggy P was one of the best bench scorers in the league last year, and I want to believe he’s going to continue to be among the leading bench scorers in the league, but it won’t be that shocking to see him struggle in 2014-15. Unlike Mike D’Antoni, coach Byron Scott and Kobe Bryant are not going to be big fans of his reckless shot selection. It may be wishful thinking to believe Bryant will stay healthy this year after spending the last two seasons on the shelf—but if the Mamba can stay on the floor I’m not buying that his minutes will be restricted, and Young doesn’t play enough defense to work in tandem with Kobe for long stretches of time.

Corey Brewer

Brewer was the greatest beneficiary of Kevin Love and his textbook outlet passes on last year’s Wolves team; and even though Minnesota is going to get up and down the court faster than they did last year, the Wolves have a lot of new additions (Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Bennett, Zach LaVine, Thaddeus Young, and Glenn Robinson III), meaning Brewer is more likely to end up playing closer to his career 25.7 minutes per game average than last year’s career-high 32.2 minutes per game.

Kendall Marshall

The Marshall Plan went into full effect in D’Antoni-land last season with the Lakers crippled by injuries to Steve Nash and Jordan Farmar. After being cut from the Wizards, he burst onto the scene in 2013-14 as one of the premier pick-and-roll point guards in the league. If his shooting continues to improve he might be able to earn more minutes than expected for Milwaukee, but with Brandon Knight, Nate Wolters, and Jerryd Bayless on board he’ll probably need injuries to strike in order for him to equal last year’s output of 8.0 points and 8.8 assists in 29.0 minutes per game.

Michael Carter-Williams

Even before it was recently announced that MCW is not going to be ready for the start of training camp, all signs have suggested the 2014-15 season is going to be a long one for the red, white, and blue’s reigning rookie of the year. Having shipped away Thaddeus Young for Alexey Shved, Luc Mbah a Moute, and what figures to be a late first-round draft pick, the team that won just 19 games gave away their locker room leader and best overall player—in order to open the door for Nerlens Noel to start and play more minutes at power forward (and to ensure the team will not surpass last year’s win total).

Aside from forcing misses around the rim, don’t expect Noel to be able to duplicate the offensive production we’ve seen from Young during his years in Philly. It’s going to be interesting to see what kind of immediate impact Noel can make on defense, but the least efficient offense of 2013-14 figures to be even more inefficient this season.

Carter-Williams will probably be ready to start the regular season, but his woes as a shooter and turnover-machine will be hard-pressed to improve in 2014-15—unless Jason Richardson can turn back the clock 10 years. Since he’s a consummate professional, it won’t be that surprising if Richardson can return to being a solid rotation player. However, apart from the return of J-Rich, Hollis Thompson showing improved range in the summer league, and Noel showing a few flashes on the offensive end, there isn’t much to indicate that the Sixers high-paced offense will be conducive to any semblance of efficiency from Carter-Williams. Teams will be able to key in on him even more than they could last year, and without a reliable shot, MCW and the Sixers will suffer historic half court ineptitude.