This was posted on Run the Floor last night. It’s also posted here. Content for everyone.
Since everything I plan on writing for this site seems to be written by someone else in the mainstream or rendered moot by the time I am about to hit publish, I figure that I’ll try something different. Since I’m new to the site, I’ll tell you 10 things that I believe about this college basketball season. Instead of writing of being wrong about 1 team, I’ll be wrong about 10. Hope you enjoy.
1) I believe that we haven’t seen the last memorable shot of the year. That’s kind of not going out on a limb with the first one, but with the shots by Austin Rivers against Carolina and Christian Watford against Kentucky, the memorable shot bar is awfully high. Someone drilling a jumper from the elbow during the tournament isn’t going to be the play that stood out this season unless it’s a Laettner repeat. There is a high bar, but I have a feeling that we are only getting started with the crazy finishes.
Off the wall prediction: One of the biggest shots of the tournament will be made by a 15 seed against a 2 to take the lead late. Mark it down.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4-aZ553zUc&w=560&h=315]
video from run the floor
2) I believe in Duke. I know that Duke is a highly flawed team defensively. They are giving up 1.05 points per possession in ACC play. That’s the third worst. A lot of those points come inside and off offensive rebounds. Duke only gets 63% of available defensive rebounds, which is really bad. They also don’t force turnovers, don’t block shots and foul a lot. Having said all that, the Duke offense is the best in the ACC. They are tied with Clemson for the league lead in lowest turnover percentage. They are the second best offensive rebounding team in the ACC. Andre Dawkins has the highest offensive rating in ACC play at 133. Ryan Kelly is 6th. We caught a lot of what Austin Rivers brings to the table in the UNC game. He’s shooting 48% in ACC play with 15.4 points per.
People are saying that Duke is soft and if you get out and guard them that you can beat them. That has been shown a couple of times, specifically against Florida State and Miami, but I don’t know how many of those types of teams Duke will run into later. I think their offense is good enough to get them to the Sweet 16. Once they are there, they have the talent to make things happen. I’m buying Duke stock.
3) I believe that Baylor is not elite because of Scott Drew. They have the record, they have the talent, I think the coach is holding them back. The whole team seems a bit over their head, especially in late game situations. When you go back and look at the Mississippi St game for instance, Baylor could have easily lost if the Bulldogs actually ran a play their last 2 possessions instead of playing hot potato around the perimeter. The game before that, they couldn’t get a decent last second look in regulation. Baylor pulled out both games, but they set a tone for what I think is coming in a few weeks. As we’ve seen in their games against Kansas and Missouri, they do not respond well when you punch them in the mouth. I’m a believer that teams are reflections of their coach. I don’t think Scott Drew is a Final Four coach at this point of his career and I don’t think this Baylor team is either.
4) I believe that out of the 4 teams that should make the NCAA tournament from the Missouri Valley, Creighton and Wichita St, and the WCC, Gonzaga and St Mary’s, 2 of them will go to the Sweet 16. I don’t know which 2 exactly, but I can go ahead and tell you that it will be the 2 that I pick to lose before that on my bracket. I really like this St Mary’s team, even with their defeat at the hands of Gonzaga last night. I’m not sold on Creighton or Gonzaga that much, so you can go ahead and mark them down in your Sweet 16s right now. I’ll wait.
I also believe that David Stockton will be the most annoying player in all of college basketball to me. I can’t stand him. He might as well play for Duke. That’s how much sports hate I have for him.
5) I believe this will be Bruce Weber’s last season at Illinois if they don’t make the tournament or lose in the first round. There has been some speculation by various college hoops writers about Weber’s future. The Fighting Illini haven’t gotten out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament since Deron Williams and Luther Head were on campus. It seems like this is a case of someone overstaying their welcome. I think Weber is a fine coach and that he’ll land on his feet. It’s just that Illinois and Weber need something new.
6) I believe the conference tournaments this year will be insane. I think we will see bid thieves from a few of the non-power conferences like the Mountain West, A-10, Conference USA and the Missouri Valley. I think that some of the bids that could be stolen will be from other teams in their league, especially in the A-10 and maybe in the case of New Mexico. The Big 10 tournament should be a lot of fun as long as Penn State and Wisconsin don’t repeat last year’s performance. For my money, the best conference tournament is the Big East, and that one is always a blast. With so many teams that seem like puzzles, I can’t wait for the pieces to come together.
7) I believe that children are our future.
7) I believe that no team will be kicking itself for not making the tournament as much as Minnesota. Losing Trevor Mbawke early in the season was a huge blow for sure, but the Golden Gophers have had chance after chance after chance go through their fingers in conference play. They blew free throws late and missed a shot in regulation, as well as overtime, that would have won a double OT game at Illinois. They were down a point and turned the ball over against Michigan, losing by 5. They blew a double digit first half lead and missed a shot at the buzzer to lose to Iowa. They blew a 10 point second half lead and a 5 point lead with 2:34 left, and didn’t score the last 3:24 in another loss to Iowa. After a valiant comeback last night against Wisconsin, they missed 2 shots to win in regulation before falling in overtime. One or two breaks in those games and the Golden Gophers are playing in the big dance. Instead, they are 17-8, 5-7 in the Big 10. Tough.
8) I believe that West Virginia will get hosed on calls in at least one Big East tournament game. Hey, that’s what happens when you switch leagues during the season.
9) I believe that one of those calls will be a charge, which brings me to my next belief. Charge/block calls are ridiculous. The officials seem to either a) call whatever they predetermine, b) call a charge if the feet aren’t in the circle, c) call a block on accident. The semi-circle is a great idea, in theory. In execution, it’s not worked. I don’t know why it isn’t at the NBA mark or at least at some place closer to it. Jay Bilas says every game he calls that it’s too far under the basket, and I believe him. Officials need to swallow the whistles more on some of this contact. For every time a guy actually lowers his shoulder on a move, a guy flops when he dips in 19 times. Look at the end of the Kansas-Missouri game. Being an official is a tough job for sure, but these guys don’t call it consistently or accurately in fact. It’s getting to the point where it’s taking away from the action on the floor.
10) I believe that at some point a coach is going to have his team go 2 for 1 late in games, let alone in a half. Georgetown and Syracuse both had chances to do this last night and refused. It drove me crazy. This is even more insane when you are losing. I’m not saying that you take a rushed, forced shot, but you call your quickest play or you have someone go to the basket. Do anything and everything. Try whatever you can. Don’t settle. Life is too short for settling. Be a man. When teams do this in tournament play, I’m going to have a blood vessel behind my eye pop and go blind. All because teams didn’t go 2 for 1.
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