Andrew Wiggins is a bit of an enigma. Years ago, he joined LeBron, Kareem, and Sebastian Telfair as some of the most celebrated ballers in high school history. During his lone year at Kansas, he faced criticism for disappearing, not loving the game, not having the dominant killer instinct that would allow him to be an NBA alpha. After his legendarily tumultuous rookie summer, his early play prompted one writer to infamously claim that far from being the next LeBron, Wiggins wasn’t even the next James Posey. Wiggins then exploded with a run that ended with him definitively claiming Rookie of the Year. By the way, Wiggins most certainly isn’t the next James Posey, and Wolves fans know that that’s a good thing. But he’s not LeBron either.
We’re now a season and a half into the Andrew Wiggins show, and I’m still not sure who or what he is as a player. His obvious physical gifts (6’8 with a seven foot wingspan and 44 inch vertical) have led to fans and team alike touting his potential as a future lockdown defender, and it seems to pass the eye test. When he takes the challenge, like with James Harden last season or contests versus his once-spurned Cavs, he’s active, quick, tough to get by, effective on both ends.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLCb15busG0
But more often than not, Wiggins fails to show the fight to be a game-changing defender. For the season, he’s averaging 0.82 steals and 0.6 blocks per game, and opposing players seem to shoot better nearly across the board when Wiggins is on them than their average. Too often, once beaten, he doesn’t work hard enough to get back in the play. Luckily, he has a great defensive backdrop in Towns, but the KAT can’t cover up all Wiggins’ mistakes.
Now, much of these issues can be attributed to youth and inexperience. I’m by no means ready to give up on Wigs. I think he’ll get to the point where he’s an above-average to good defender, but to be a truly transcendent defender, you need the fire. That’s what I want to see more of from the kid.
Historical Perspective
In order to try to quantify Wiggins, I set up multiple comparisons to see how he stacked up, and found some interesting numbers.
Want to see how the young wolf stacks up to some of the current cream of the wing crop?
Rk Player From To G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS ORtg DRtg 1 Jimmy Butler 2012 2013 124 20 2493 5.8 12.7 .459 0.9 2.5 .362 4.9 10.2 .482 5.0 6.2 .796 3.4 4.9 8.3 2.8 1.9 0.8 1.6 2.5 17.5 119 104 2 Kawhi Leonard 2012 2013 122 96 3344 7.0 14.3 .494 1.6 4.3 .375 5.4 9.9 .546 2.6 3.3 .804 2.6 7.8 10.3 2.5 2.8 0.9 1.6 2.9 18.3 116 100 3 Paul George 2011 2012 127 85 3223 7.4 16.7 .445 2.1 6.0 .352 5.3 10.7 .497 3.6 4.6 .788 1.5 8.1 9.6 3.6 2.7 1.0 3.0 5.1 20.6 106 101 4 Kevin Durant 2008 2009 154 154 5653 11.2 24.6 .453 1.4 3.9 .359 9.8 20.8 .470 7.5 8.7 .867 1.3 6.1 7.4 3.6 1.6 1.1 4.1 2.3 31.3 105 110 5 Andrew Wiggins 2015 2016 134 134 4794 9.3 21.2 .441 0.7 2.7 .279 8.6 18.5 .465 6.7 8.9 .752 2.3 3.7 6.0 2.8 1.3 0.9 3.1 3.2 26.1 103 113 6 Rudy Gay 2007 2008 159 124 5103 9.4 21.0 .447 1.8 5.3 .351 7.6 15.8 .479 4.0 5.2 .762 2.3 6.1 8.4 2.6 1.8 1.5 3.3 4.2 24.6 102 111
So, we’ve got Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, both of whom Wiggins should be studying going forward, the defense-first yet still two-way star (Jimmy Butler), the inefficient chucker who can still be productive in the right system (Rudy Gay), and the MVP (KD).
Durant and Wiggins are the only players on this list to start in every game they’d played to this point in their careers. To level the playing field, I looked at per 100 possession averages for each players’ first two seasons, and the numbers weren’t particularly surprising.
Wiggins leads the group in attempted free throws. He came in second behind KD in points, two-point FG made, and field goals attempted. He’s in the middle of the pack in blocks, turnover rate, assists, offensive rebounds, and FG made, and he’s either last or tied for last in rebounds, steals, FT%, 2P%, 3P%, and overall field goal percentage. He’s last in defensive rating and leads only Rudy Gay in offensive rating.
Rk Player From To G MP PER TS% 3PAr FTr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% OWS DWS WS WS/48 OBPM DBPM BPM VORP 1 Kawhi Leonard 2012 2013 122 3344 16.5 .584 .304 .230 6.0 16.8 11.6 7.2 2.8 1.2 9.4 15.5 6.1 5.6 11.7 .168 1.7 2.4 4.1 5.1 2 Jimmy Butler 2012 2013 124 2493 14.8 .567 .196 .489 7.2 10.4 8.8 8.2 1.9 1.1 9.6 14.6 4.9 3.2 8.1 .156 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.2 3 Paul George 2011 2012 127 3223 15.1 .550 .360 .274 3.3 17.3 10.3 11.5 2.7 1.5 13.9 18.7 3.3 5.1 8.4 .126 0.7 1.7 2.4 3.5 4 Kevin Durant 2008 2009 154 5653 18.3 .549 .158 .353 2.9 13.7 8.3 12.8 1.6 1.6 12.6 28.2 5.6 4.6 10.2 .087 0.8 -0.6 0.2 3.2 5 Rudy Gay 2007 2008 159 5103 15.4 .528 .251 .248 5.2 13.9 9.6 8.8 1.8 2.2 12.3 23.4 2.4 3.1 5.5 .052 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1.9 6 Andrew Wiggins 2015 2016 134 4794 14.8 .521 .126 .419 5.1 8.6 6.8 9.7 1.3 1.4 10.9 24.6 4.1 0.4 4.5 .045 -0.2 -2.2 -2.4 -0.4
The advanced stats here also don’t flatter Wiggins. He’s dead last in all the overall stats: VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), BPM (Box Plus/Minus), Win Shares, Defensive Win Shares, TS%, and PER, as well as steal percentage and total rebound percentage. Remember this, we’ll come back to it.
HOF Comps
For the next comparison, I went with all-time greats at Wiggins’ position.
Rk Player From To G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% 2P 2PA 2P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS ORtg DRtg 1 Michael Jordan* 1985 1986 100 89 3595 13.3 26.2 .505 0.2 0.9 .171 13.1 25.3 .518 9.9 11.7 .844 2.6 5.5 8.0 7.2 3.1 1.2 4.5 4.4 36.5 117 107 2 Dwyane Wade 2004 2005 138 133 5100 10.5 22.2 .473 0.3 1.0 .296 10.2 21.2 .482 8.6 11.3 .758 2.0 4.7 6.8 8.4 2.2 1.2 5.4 3.9 29.9 106 103 3 Kobe Bryant 1997 1998 150 7 3159 9.3 21.9 .425 2.1 5.8 .354 7.2 16.0 .450 8.2 10.2 .801 2.1 4.1 6.1 4.8 2.0 1.0 4.4 4.6 28.8 107 106 4 Andrew Wiggins 2015 2016 134 134 4794 9.3 21.2 .441 0.7 2.7 .279 8.6 18.5 .465 6.7 8.9 .752 2.3 3.7 6.0 2.8 1.3 0.9 3.1 3.2 26.1 103 113 5 Clyde Drexler* 1984 1985 162 46 3963 9.7 20.3 .480 0.1 0.5 .220 9.6 19.8 .486 4.1 5.5 .747 3.9 4.5 8.4 7.0 3.4 1.1 4.1 5.6 23.7 107 105 6 Tracy McGrady 1998 1999 113 19 2285 8.0 18.1 .443 0.5 1.8 .289 7.5 16.4 .460 4.5 6.2 .720 5.2 7.5 12.7 4.9 2.3 2.9 3.4 4.2 21.0 106 105
The trends here are pretty similar to the last group. Wiggins is dead last in most quantitative stats: blocks, steals, rebounds, assists, and in the exact same advanced metrics as before. But if you take a look, you’ll see he’s right on track with Kobe for many of the categories–in fact, that’s his closest parallel in this comparison. The big gap is in the assist column, but for the most part, he’s on a similar trajectory.
Wrapping it up in a soft shell burrito
I expected to come away from writing this article more worried about our young star than I did. The fact that he holds his own in both of these historical comparisons doesn’t in any way guarantee a similar future for Wiggins, but it is very encouraging, if again, not totally surprising.
Drew seems to be a very talented scorer who kinda sorta rebounds and kinda sorta passes and doesn’t make much impact on d and needs a coach and a roster that will force him to become more of a facilitator. It’s not easy to get to the level of the other people grouped with him, but it’s within reach.
The last remaining question is: why do advanced metrics hate him so much?
Seriously, it’s not like the guy who wrote the Posey article was spinning bull. He was looking at the numbers (and sure, the snarky title was his fault), and the numbers make their case loud and clear. But can we really trust them when the eye test shows me something like this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xY8Tvcsr3AA
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