This is a serious question. Once the 2011 season ends, the Pirates will have to decide whether to pick up Doumit’s dual option for 2012 ($7.25 million) and 2013 ($8.25 million), or to let their long-time catcher hit free agency. It looks like Doumit will qualify as a Type-B free agent, so depending on how free agent compensation shakes out in the new CBA, the Pirates may offer Doumit arbitration in hopes of cashing in on a draft pick when he signs with another team, if they let him hit the open market.
We know Doumit’s defense is bad. He scored terribly in Mike Fast’s analysis of strike-zone framing by catchers, though it is something he seems to be improving on. And with Ray Searage emphasizing slide steps this year his CS% has bounced back up to his career rates (he’s nailed 12 of 50 stealers this year after getting just 11 of 90 last year), which aren’t bad. He’s not great at blocking balls in the dirt, but I think it’s fair to say his defense is at least a little better in 2011 than it’s been in the past. That’s not a guarantee of future performance, just a statement that it seems like it’s something he’s worked on and improved at, even if he’s still subpar defensively.
The reason I’m asking this question, though, is because of Doumit’s bat. In 230 plate appearances this year, he’s hitting .300/.349/.479. That gives him the second highest OPS on the team (behind Derrek Lee) and the highest of with at least 200 plate appearances (that includes Alex Presley, who’s at 208). He’s also third on the team in FanGraphs’ wRAA behind McCutchen and Lee.
This is horrifying because wRAA is not a rate stat, and rather a stat that accumulates over the season. That means means that Lee (88 PAs) and Doumit (230) have contributed more to the Pirates offense than guys like Neil Walker (637 PAs) and Garrett Jones (463). The Pirates’ offense is alarmingly bad and it’s probably worse than you think, especially since Lee likely won’t be back (whether you think the Pirates should re-sign him or not, it seems pretty clear that he’s not all that interested in returning and that he’s playing well enough to find a spot on a contender in this thin free agent class) and Doumit could be gone as well.
If the Pirates don’t bring Doumit back, it’s likely that they’ll be replacing his bat will a full season of Mike McKenry/Matt Pagnozzi types. Chris Snyder’s back injury is worrying enough that I’m not sure the Pirates will exercise his option, even though it’s more reasonable than Doumit’s at just for one year/$6 million. If he were to play 120 or 130 games at that price he’d be worth it, but he hasn’t played 100 games in the last two years combined and he’s never topped 115. The free agent market doesn’t have many enticing options. I doubt the Pirates will be looking to make a big trade for a catcher because while Tony Sanchez and Eric Fryer clearly aren’t ready for the big leagues quite yet, they’re interesting enough prospects that either one could be a solid starter from 2013 beyond.
If the Pirates do go to a catching rotation based around McKenry, they’ll be switching out one of their best hitters for one of their worst. Using wRAA, McKenry has been worth almost seventeen runs less than Doumit at the plate this year in slightly fewer plate appearances (196). So where does the offense come from? They’ll have to hope that Neil Walker bounces back to his 2010 levels of production at the plate, that they can find a legitimate platoon partner for Garrett Jones at first, that Alex Presey is for real, that Pedro Alvarez can turn things around, that Jose Tabata will be healthy and productive. They don’t need one or two of those things to happen: they need pretty much all of them. I’m not sure how many of those scenarios I’d bet on individually.
The answer isn’t clear here, because if I were in the Pirates’ position I wouldn’t be all that enthused about picking up Doumit’s option for two years, either, given his defense and his age and his frailty and the catchers the Pirates have in the minors. Still, it might be in their best interests to restructure the options (maybe by bumping the 2012 salary up to the 2013 level and increasing the buyout or something) to separate them. Unless the Pirates can find a really good short-term answer to their catching problem, they’re going to be better with him in the lineup.
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