A couple days ago Scott Howard Cooper of NBA.com quoted a candid Andrew Bogut about his ensuing free agency. Most Warrior fans would agree, after such an injury ridden year and a half, it’s best for the Warriors to wait until next summer and extend him based on health and performance. The problem is good starting centers are the scarcest commodity behind true superstars in the NBA, and Andrew Bogut is one. When healthy he is a top 5 center, a player who commands the paint defensively, rebounds at an elite clip, and has a variety of offensive skills including being one of the best passing big men. Even with health concerns, Bogut will have a myriad of suitors.
To properly evaluate Bogut’s value lets first look at the starting centers to sign extensions under the new CBA:
2011
Marc Gasol 4 years, $58 million
Tyson Chandler 4 years, $58 million
Deandre Jordan 4 years, $44 million
2012
Roy Hibbert 4 years, $59 million
Javale McGee 4 years, $44 million
Omer Asik 3 years, $25 million
2013
Dwight Howard 4 years, $88 million
Dwight Howard can be ruled out because he is unquestionably the best Center in the NBA and a proven max player. Omer Asik can also be ruled out as was a back-up and the market tends to not reward guys who have not started.
That leaves Gasol, Chandler, Jordan, Hibbert and McGee. Javale McGee prior to his extension had only started half the games of his career, averaging 8.6 points and 6.0 rebounds over 21.2 minutes. Similarly in 2011, DeAndre Jordan got a large contract despite averaging 5.6 points, 5.7 rebounds and only starting 91 of his 203 games over his first three years. Both players were off of their best years, however in both cases they only averaged around 25 minutes a game with improved, but still mixed productivity. McGee and Jordan received large contracts largely based off potential (both were under 25) and the fact centers are hard to come by. Bogut in comparison will be 29 next summer and will have been a starter in each of his 9 seasons with much better productivity.
Next comes Gasol and Hibbert. Two players who were both resigned off of positive playoff runs. Marc Gasol had just averaged 11.6 points and 7 rebounds with very good defense in 81 regular season games and upped that to 13.5 and 10.3 in the playoffs where Memphis upset the first seeded. Roy Hibbert was fresh off his first all-star appearance, and a playoff run where the Pacers pushed the eventual champion, Miami Heat 6 games, largely based off him anchoring the defense and frustrating the Heat inside. Both these players at this juncture of their career were very comparable to Bogut’s productivity, however neither were coming off of major injuries like Bogut is.
That leaves one final comparison, Tyson Chandler. Chandler was 29 when he signed with the Knicks, and entering his 10th season, just like Andrew Bogut. Chandler had led the NBA in FG%, rebounded well, and anchored the eventual champions defense. He played 74 of Dallas’ 82 regular season games and the entire playoffs. However, like Bogut the previous two seasons were injury plagued. Chandler only played 96 games from 2008-2010, missing an average of 34 games a year, the exact same amount Bogut has averaged missing over the last 4 seasons combine. Like Bogut, none of Chandler’s injuries were chronic; it was just one impact injury after another, a toe, a neck, an ankle etc.
If Bogut is capable of staying healthy for majority of 2013/14 and the Warriors make another successful playoff push, Bogut’s contract is likely to start at a similar number to Tyson Chandlers. However given the amount of teams who want a center and have ample cap room next summer, his price could be driven up. Bogut mentioned, “… my agent has told me there’s been some teams that have been calling. My agent’s told me there are some teams that are very interested and are prepared to sign me. We’ll see what’s that worth and go from there.” My assumption is these teams would be the Dallas Mavericks (in search of a center since Chandler left), the Los Angeles Lakers (flush in cap room and looking for a big man) and potentially Portland Trail Blazers (also with room, and missing a big man). A bidding war is only going to drive up Bogut’s price.
Given the going rate of big men, and Bogut’s willingness to listen to extension talks now, I think it’s in the Warriors best interest to sign him now. If he extends now, he is only allowed to extend for 3 years, per CBA rules. That would mean the Warriors have him locked up until 2017, when Bogut is 32 years old. In doing so now, before Bogut has played a full healthy season, there is a chance they get a discount. If I was Bob Myers, I would immediately ink an extension at $14 million a year or less (3 years/$42 Million). The Warriors went 20 years without a legitimate big man, and if they lose Bogut next summer, who knows how long they will go without one again. The market is scarce and 7 footers who play great defense with some offensive skills don’t come around very often. The Warriors rolled the dice on Curry’s ankle and ended up saving something around $20 million in an extension, they’d be wise to do it again.
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