Trevor Bauer‘s short career has not gone as well as he and the two franchises he has played for had hoped it would. In 34 career big league starts, Bauer is 7-12 with 4.44 ERA (4.39 FIP), he’s struck out 8.26 batters per 9 innings but has walked 4.30 batters per nine, while giving up 1.01 HR/9. With the former top prospect not living up to his billing thus far, he has some wondering whether he ever will.
If you have been following our projections series, you may be aware of how poorly Trevor Bauer is viewed by Bill James, ZiPS, and Steamer. Bill James predicts that Bauer will go 7-12, making 29 starts, striking out 170 batters over 172 innings pitched, while walking 82 batters and compiling a 4.29 ERA. ZiPS has a nearly identical projection, minus slightly fewer innings pitched. Steamer thinks the lowest of Bauer, predicting he’ll finish with a 4.69 ERA and just 0.4 WAR. Bill James, ZiPS, and Steamer all rely heavily on a player’s past statistics to make their projections. This formula does not benefit a player like Bauer, who has no real positive body of work to his name yet. So what should Indians fans expect to see from Bauer in 2015? Will he perform above these projections? If so, how much better will he be? Or will he stay true to these projections, or even fall below them? In order to make an attempt to answer this question, it’s important to examine how Bauer got to where he is now.
In 2011, Trevor Bauer was the third overall selection in the June Amateur Draft. Despite spending two very good seasons in the Arizona farm system, he was sent packing at the end of 2012 after making just 4 major league starts. It was said that Bauer’s stubbornness and refusal to change, or at least modify, his unusual way of operating was the driving force behind the Diamondbacks giving up on the top prospect. The Indians saw in Bauer the perfect opportunity to get a potential #1 starter in exchange for a player in Shin-Soo Choo that would not be re-signing with the team after his contract expired in 2013. Unfortunately for the Indians, Bauer wasn’t quite what the Tribe had hoped he’d be in his first year.
Bauer’s first start with the Indians was an accurate indicator of the troubles Bauer was to face all season. Making a spot start on April 6 against the Tampa Bay Rays, Bauer went for 5 innings giving up 3 runs (all earned), including 1 home run, while walking an astounding 7 batters and striking out just 2. Walks and home runs would plague Bauer all year, to such an extent that many felt the former top prospect would never develop the type of control necessary to become an elite starter in the majors. In 17 innings with the big league club, Bauer walked 16 batters while striking out just 11 batters and gave up 3 home runs. Put differently, that’s 8.47 BB/9, 5.82 K/9, and 1.59 HR/9. He made 350 pitches at the big league level, throwing just 196 strikes, or 56%. He would make 22 starts in AAA Columbus and never really seemed to iron out the kinks at that level either. His control problems continued to persist as he walked 5.41 batters per nine innings pitched, while serving up 1.04 home runs per nine.
Amidst the implosion that the Tribe’s staff was facing in the beginning on 2014, from seemingly every pitcher in the rotation not named Corey Kluber, Bauer was brought up from Columbus to help provide some stability. All things considered, Bauer did just that, making 26 starts with a 4.18 ERA, while striking out 8.41 batters per nine and cutting his walks to 3.53 per nine. He also cut down his home run totals, giving up 0.94 HR/9. He still wasn’t putting up the kind of numbers you may expect from a top 5 pick, but he was a fairly reliable pitcher and never made fans or the coaching staff feel that he should be sent back down to AAA. Much of his improvement can be traced back to the fact that he was throwing more strikes. 62.5% of Bauer’s pitches in 2014 were strikes, a vast improvement from his totals in 2013.
Now Bauer’s numbers in 2014 were not great by any stretch, but they showed great improvements from 2013 and there were certainly moments when Bauer looked every bit of the top 10 prospect he was in 2012. For proof, look no further than what may be the nastiest strikeout of the Indians’ season in 2014.
Buckling Troy Tulowitzki‘s knees does not happen by pure luck. Bauer’s performance against the Rockies on May 31 was proof that Bauer had moved past his struggles in 2013. His line that game was nothing special, but was very solid, he pitched 6.0 innings, gave up 2 runs on 4 hits, he walked just 1 batter and struck out 8. While his stats may not indicate that he had pitched a great game, watching his performance certainly did so. Bauer had the Rockies’ hitters off their game all day, never allowing them to get into a rhythm offensively.
Even with Bauer’s flashes of brilliance, often times that’s all they were, just flashes. Consistency was a major issue for Bauer, as he was never able to string a series of quality starts together. But the fact still remains that Bauer made great strides in 2014. So what does this mean for Bauer in 2015?
Bauer is just 24 years old and has just one full season under his belt. As much of a cop out as it may be, we can’t really predict how well Bauer will perform in 2015. But based on the improvement he showed last year, I would expect an even better showing in 2015. He has the stuff to be a top of the rotation pitcher, but thus far has lacked the control, if he can continue to improve upon this control he will be a dangerous pitcher. Bauer has a work ethic and desire to improve that is unparalleled and certainly not duplicated. When you have someone who is as talented as he is, and works as hard and smart as he has been, you can’t count him out of anything.
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