I was all set to do a college football piece last week, but the rankings were so boring that there was really nothing to respond to. It was painfully obvious last week that the SEC, Big 10, Pac 12, and ACC winners were going to the playoff. I’m actually here to tell you that as I see it right now, very little has changed. However, there margin for error for everybody not named Alabama is now zero. As long as Bama doesn’t lose the SEC title game they are 100% in. Even if they lose that game, they are still in. The rest could be interesting.
The Big 10 is unique in that I think there are actually 4 teams who have a chance. Michigan and Ohio State are clearly the big names, but you can add Wisconsin and Penn State to the mix. If Michigan beats Ohio State and wins the Big 10, they are in, but right now, I would favor Ohio State to beat them. Where it gets weird is if Ohio State beats Michigan and Penn State wins out. This would send Penn State to the Big 10 title game where they likely play Wisconsin. Wisconsin has 2 losses, to Michigan and Ohio State. Beating one of those in the title game rematch likely sends Wisconsin to the playoff as conference champ. Would beating Penn State be enough to send Wisconsin to the playoffs over a 1 loss Ohio State? I think the Big 10 gets a team in, but I’m honestly not sure which one. They actually are in decent position to get 2 in.
The ACC is actually not complicated at all. A 1 loss ACC champion Clemson is 100% in the playoffs. Another loss and they are out. Louisville is now the interesting case study. How will the committee view a 1 loss Louisville that doesn’t win its conference if all other conference champs have 1 loss? I will tell you this; the game I most want to see is Louisville against Bama. I want to see Jackson against that Bama D.
The Pac 12 is far from decided. Washington can still win out and be in the playoff. However, if they lose to Washington State they don’t even win their division. The Pac 12 title game could be a 2 loss Colorado against a 2 loss Washington State. Let’s not forget the Big 12 is all of a sudden back in. West Virginal could win the conference with 1 loss. Would the committee really take a one-loss non-conference champ or a 2-loss conference champ over them? I hope we don’t hear anything for a 2 loss Oklahoma that wins the conference. I believe that a blow out loss to Ohio State eliminates them. At the end of the day, head to head has to count the most.
There is still a ton to decide. In the past, the committee has 100% given the benefit of the doubt to the conference champion. Every year the committee changes and it can be tough to judge what they are thinking. Right now the top 4 teams appear to be Bama, Ohio State, Louisville and then either Michigan or Clemson. The easiest and cleanest playoff is Bama, a 1 loss Clemson, a 1 loss Michigan, and 1 loss Washington.
Things are going to get very interesting if anyone other than Bama loses again. You have to wonder, would the committee really take a 1- loss Ohio State who doesn’t even get to play for their conference title over a 1 loss Washington or a 2 loss winner of their own conference? Would the committee really take a 2 loss team that wins its conference over a loss team that beat them head to head? For the last several weeks there was no mystery or excitement to this season. That all changed Saturday! The clear conference to watch is the Big 10. There are so still 4 teams with legit chances to win that conference.
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