What We Know About Dice-K

Before the season, many pundits were predicting that Dice-K would have an ERA around 4.50 in his first year of baseball. Most predicted this number, with few more liberal predictions. Nevertheless, an ERA any lower than 4.00 was not expected.
Dice-K’s numbers through three months of baseball are better than those predictions, as he rests at a 3.80 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9-5 record. He has 110 strikeouts to go with 36 walks.
I’ll take those numbers.

But it sure doesn’t feel like he’s been anywhere near as good as those numbers, has it?
Dice-K has been an incredibly streaky pitcher over the course of the three months. In the table, you can see his game by game log over the course of the season so far. Pay special attention to how the ERA seems to rise up, then fall, then rise, and then fall yet again.
I’ve learned to stop worrying about Dice-K’s walks. As you can see, the first time he got bombed was against the Yankees at Fenway on April 22. He gave up exactly one walk and whiffed seven, only giving up one home run. One of his more spetacular starts came when he walked five, going six innings, striking nine out and giving up one run to San Diego on June 22. The reason he only got to go six innings? The walks. If he doesn’t walk people, he usually ends up going far. Case in point is the game two nights ago in Seattle, when he went eight innings. When he had back to back starts of no walks, he pitched 17 out of 18 possible innings.
The last five starts have been a joy to watch because he’s given up six runs in that span, and yet only has a 2-2 record to show for it. Since the absolute drubbing by the Indians (by the way, he walked zero in that start) he’s been nothing short of a consistent strikeout machine, striking out either eight or nine batters in the past five starts. His 110 K’s rank fifth in the major leagues, behind Erik Bedard, Johan Santana, Jake Peavy and Cole Hamels.
If Dice-K could better harness his control, he could be going eight innings every night, but it looks as if he’s at least a solid seven inning pitcher. You can’t really ask for more than that nowadays. I’m not going to say that Dice-K has turned the corner and will continually serve up dominant starts, but he’s certainly hitting his groove. Prior to heading to Oakland, there was a bit of a buzz about Dice-K’s extreme home/road splits. Many predicted Dice-K would do well in June because four of his five starts would be away. Well, those pundits proved correct. However, I’m debunking this theory because he blanked the Giants for seven innings, and the drubbing by Cleveland was preceded by a Texas drubbing in Texas.
Yes, the splits don’t lie. He has a 4.81 ERA at Fenway and 2.95 ERA away. Talk to me after July, when we host 17 of 27 possible games. Right now I’m chalking it up to confidence. His confidence against Cleveland wasn’t exactly high, his confidence against the Giants must have been pretty high … and he’s certainly taking away quite a bit from his stellar start in Seattle, where he finally overcame the jitters. He did pitch okay (not sensational) the first game against Seattle but got pummeled the second game. Two nights ago, he did just fine … and it certainly helped matters that Kenji Johjima rode the pine.
His next start will come against a team he has never faced, but should be facing quite often over the next six years, the duration of his contract. It comes against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, a team the Red Sox have yet to face this year (sheer lunacy) and the Devil Rays have undergone quite a transformation recently. Outfielder Elijah Dukes out, pitcher Andy Sonnastine in is the biggest change. After that, he makes the final start before the All-Star Break, pitching against the Tigers in Comerica Field. It’s anyone’s guess as to when he pitches after that — Curt Schilling will return, and three extra days of rest for everyone but Josh Beckett (and Dice-K?) will be in effect.
Yes, I did just wonder if Dice-K would make the All-Star team. Fifth in the majors in strikeouts, 17th in ERA, eighth in wins, tied for fourth in wins, and one heck of a marketing profile. It will be good for the game overseas if Dice-K makes the All-Star team. I’m betting he does … but I won’t be complaining if he doesn’t. Why? Because he’s thrown 1,765 pitches on the season so far. That’s 110.1 pitches per game, and he’s first in Pitcher Abuse Points (read the explanation here, where the author admits the system is not relevant for every pitcher, citing Tim Wakefield as an example), jumping ahead of Carlos Zambrano with his Seattle effort. Do I put a lot of stock in PAP? Honestly, no. If you can go long, you’re going to go long; it has nothing to do with abusing a pitcher. However, rest should be accorded those pitchers at any chance possible without skipping a start — like during the All-Star Break.
We know this: we know he enjoys (I use that term in the loosest way possible) having his control completely abandon him and walk the bases loaded. We know that he can strike batters out with the best of them, and he can go as long in the game as he wants. We — or at least I — know that he’s also one of the best pitchers in the game right now.
It just doesn’t seem like it. But think about it.
He is.