As alluded to earlier, I recieved my copy of Baseball Prospectus 2006 the other day in the mail. I figured that today might be a good a day as any to take a break from analyzing, from guessing, from conjecturing, and see what BP has to say. What’s going to happen to our team in 2006?
Obviously, they’re not always right, but in some cases they are. They predicted Andruw Jones, Derrek Lee, and Dontrelle Willis becoming forces. They predicted outstanding debuts for Jonny Gomes, Ryan Howard, and Zach Duke. Ichiro Suzuki, Ivan Rodriguez, and Curt Schilling fell prey to their predicted declines.
Enough with that. Onto the predictions! Please note this went to press in February – before we got Coco Crisp. They did a lot of Sox players, so I’m only doing notable ones – but if you request a player not covered in the comments, I will provide you with their line. This includes minor leaguers.
Josh Bard: (for CLE) 229 PA, .239/.305/.358
Alex Cora: 279 PA, .260/.307/.368
Coco Crisp: (for CLE) 662 PA, .295/.347/.445
Johnny Damon: (for NYY) 651 PA, .290/.352/.423
Alex Gonzalez: (for FLA) 479 PA, .253/.306/.411
Mark Loretta: (for BOS) 513 PA, .294/.355/.415
Mike Lowell: (for BOS) 529 PA, .270/.332/.457
Kevin Millar: (for BAL) 442 PA, .265/.348/.426
Bill Mueller: (for LAD) 431 PA, .278/.365/.429
Trot Nixon: 413 PA, .284/.369/.482 (NOTE: Nixon is most comparable to Roger Maris, David Justice, and Cliff Floyd.)
David Ortiz: 695 PA, .292/.384/.578 (43 HR, 130 RBI)
Dustin Pedroia: (at the major league level) 551 PA, .299/.365/.458 (obviously the AB won’t happen, but for the minor leaguers, they’re just projecting what the COULD do.)
Hanley Ramirez: (for FLA) 499 PA, .258/.313/.367
Manny Ramirez: 635 AB, .296/.386/.570 (39 HR, 118 RBI)
Edgar Renteria: (for ATL) 636 PA, .284/.347/.405
JT Snow: (for BOS) 285 PA, .270/.336/.413
Adam Stern: 137 PA, .271/.324/.402
Jason Varitek: 484 PA, .271/.361/.477
Kevin Youkilis: 404 PA, .258/.368/.421
Bronson Arroyo: 12-11, 201.0 IP, 4.47 ERA
Josh Beckett: (for BOS) 12-8, 184.3 IP, 3.87 ERA
Matt Clement: 12-9, 190.1 IP, 4.11 ERA
Lenny DiNardo: 6-7, 106.2 IP, 4.78 ERA
Keith Foulke: 9 SV, 51.0 IP, 4.30 ERA
Craig Hansen: 1 SV, 23.0 IP, 4.09 ERA
Jon Lester: 7-9, 135.2 IP, 5.17 ERA
Mike Myers: (for NYY) 31.2 IP, 4.43 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
Jonathan Papelbon: 6-6, 101.0 IP, 4.91 ERA
David Riske: (for CLE) 3 SV, 54.3 IP, 3.57 ERA
Rudy Seanez: (for BOS) 2 SV, 57.0 IP, 4.54 ERA
Curt Schilling: 607, 99.2 IP, 4.17 ERA
Julian Tavarez: (for BOS) 3 SV, 64.3 IP, 4.33 ERA
Mike Timlin: 7 SV, 65.1 IP, 3.98 ERA
Tim Wakefield: 12-12, 207.0 IP, 4.65 ERA
David Wells: 9-9, 151.2 IP, 4.80 ERA
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