By Sean Kennedy (@PhillyFastBreak)
The still-winless Philadelphia 76ers try to end the cycle of embarrassment tonight on the road against the Charlotte Hornets. Back in October, when Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was declared out for the season with a torn labrum in his right shoulder, even the remaining Charlotte apologists thought that loss would drop the team out of the Eastern Conference playoff picture. The Hornets were a team with a defense-first identity and MKG was the linchpin of that defense. The on-off splits for Charlotte with and without Kidd-Gilchrist last year were truly staggering.
However, instead of falling off the map, Charlotte has gamely hung around at 6-6 thus far on the season. A lot of the credit has to go to head coach Steve Clifford for shifting the entire philosophy of the team. The Hornets are now hoisting 26.5 threes per game, the 6th-most in the league and a huge jump from last season’s 19.1 per contest. Thanks in large part to hitting those long-range bombs at a very respectable 35.8% clip, Charlotte now has the 6th-best offense in the league. The juiced-up offense has helped keep the team afloat, even while the defense has predictably taken a step back.
With a change in philosophy, the burden as centerpiece of the offense has largely shifted away from post behemoth Al Jefferson (Charlotte actually has a negative net rating when Big Al is in the game), and towards big offseason trade acquisition Nic Batum. The French star has stepped up to the challenge and had a fantastic year thus far, averaging 17.1 points on 45.6% shooting (43.8% from three), 6.0 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game. The Hornets have also benefited from Jeremy Lin providing some scoring punch off the bench as a back-up point guard, and Kemba Walker shooting 37% from three, easily the best mark of his career.
As if the fact that they can shoot the ball wasn’t enough, the Hornets also do the best job in the NBA at taking care of the basketball, sporting a turnover ratio of just 12.0. Brett Brown probably has NSFW fantasies about coaching such as group, as conversely, the 76ers are easily the worst in the league at 19.1. I would bring up Wednesday’s 31-turnover atrocity but I think most fans are still mentally recovering from having been violated on such an emotional level.
On the glass, the Hornets do not go after offensive boards (3rd-lowest offensive rebounding rate in the league), continuing their strategy of the past few years to cut down on transition points instead. However, that’s not to say they’re a poor rebounding team, as Charlotte actually sports the best defensive rebounding rate in the NBA. In addition to not giving up offensive rebounds, the Hornets also do not foul, as opponents have the 3rd-lowest free throw attempt rate in the NBA.
So let’s see, the Hornets don’t allow points in transition, don’t foul, and don’t give up second-chance points. Basically, they force opponents to make their shots to beat them. Could you imagine a more perfect strategy to employ against the Sixers? Philadelphia is going to need a huge night from Jahlil Okafor to do any damage offensively, which is certainly possible against a more ground-bound big man like Al Jefferson.
On paper, the Hornets just appear to be a bad matchup for the Sixers. They have done a terrific job shooting the ball from the outside all season, and their defensive strategies take away what are usually the best hopes for point production for Philadelphia. That’s not even taking into account that the Sixers have looked like they would be easily defeated by d-league teams in recent contests. I would say fairly confidently that the Sixers take an unlucky 13th loss to start the season tonight in Charlotte.
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