September is officially upon us, queue Green Day in the background…
Summer has come and passed
The innocent can never last
Wake me up when September ends
Ring out the bells again
Like we did when spring began
Wake me up when September ends
– Green Day, When September Ends
Of course, in baseball, sleeping through September is reserved only for those who have already seen their chance at October baseball pass them by.
In baseball, for those teams who have persevered through the summer and emerged still in contention, September is the prologue to the legend that is written each October.
There’s no doubt that the 2008 Red Sox come into September playing their best baseball of the year. An 18-9 record in August has to validate the front office’s decisions on the last day of July. But yet, the Red Sox still haven’t been able to gain ground on the Tampa Bay Rays who saw the Red Sox .667 winning percentage and raised it .083 points with a 21-7 run of their own.
With the Red Sox down five games in the American League East (six in the loss column) with twenty five games left to play, is it time to give up the realistic hope of a division title?
Certainly the six games remaining against the Rays will go a long way to determining the fate of the A.L. East. But are even those series enough to get back atop the division?
To answer that, lets look at a few scenarios.
Given the way the Rays have been playing, in order for the Red Sox to catch them, 98 wins feels like a must. In order to hit the 98 win mark, the Rays need only to play 14-13 ball coming home. The Red Sox on the other hand would have to better their best month of the season (August) with 19-7 record (they stand 1-0) in September.
I think it is safe to say that it might actually take 100 wins to win the division this year.
If both teams play “as they have been” against everyone else, the Red Sox would likely need to win five out of six head to head to take the division with their 100th win.
Well…at least we have a three game lead in the Wild Card…
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