Where are the Gamecocks going bowling?

The Gamecocks have finished their regular season with 10 wins and are awaiting their bowl destination.  As I see it, there are three possibilities: the Capital One Bowl, the Outback Bowl and the Cotton Bowl.

The BCS will almost certainly take two teams from the SEC.  The Capital One Bowl picks next.  Then the Outback and Cotton Bowls pick together.  Assuming LSU beats Georgia, the BCS will take LSU and Alabama, and the next three bowls will choose from Arkansas 10-2, South Carolina 10-2 and Georgia 10-3.  The next available options aren’t very appetizing: Auburn (7-5), Mississippi State (6-6), Florida (6-6), Vanderbilt (6-6).

Assuming LSU wins convincingly, I think the Capital One will jump on Arkansas.  The Outback will probably prefer Georgia since they haven’t been since 2005, and South Carolina didn’t have a great showing in 2009.  That leaves South Carolina in the Cotton.

Assuming LSU wins but Georgia looks good, I think there is a chance the Capital One takes Georgia.  They may still take Arkansas, but Georgia is a real possibility.  If Georgia is the choice, then Arkansas will go to the Cotton and South Carolina to the Outback.

If Georgia wins the SEC Championship, things get murky.  Georgia would go to the Sugar, and BCS standing would be determinative.  LSU or Alabama would go to the BCS championship game, and both could go.  If both go, then Capital One would get Arkansas, and South Carolina could go to either the Cotton or the Outback.  The Cotton might prefer South Carolina since the Outback could still make do with Florida.  On the other hand the Outback might want South Carolina so the Cotton can make do with Auburn.

If Georgia wins the SEC championship and only one of LSU/Alabama goes to the BCS championship game, the other will probably be the Capital One’s choice.  Arkansas would then go to the Cotton, and South Carolina would go to the Outback.

The Capital One could still choose to take South Carolina in several scenarios, but I don’t think that is very likely.  Here’s where I put the odds of South Carolina’s destination.