As the Red Sox still remain far under .500 at the all-star break, the issue of base stealing has to be a factor. From a squad which stole 123 last season (third in the AL) while being caught 19 times, they have plummeted to 30, with 20 CS’s.
There are many reasons for this drop. Jacoby Ellsbury took his 52 steals to New York with him. His accomplishments were greater given the fact that he was caught only 4 times. Shane Victorino (21-3) has had a lost season because of injury. Even if he returns, the Sox cannot expect those numbers again. The bottom seems to have dropped out on Dustin Pedroia (17-5). In addition to lowered power numbers, he has stolen only twice while being cut down 6 times. Brock Holt and Jackie Bradley Jr are tied for the team lead with 6, but neither can be considered a base stealer, at least for the present.
It is not surprising that the Sox have not used the steal often in their first 92 contests. Teams that scratch for runs are normally reluctant to run into more outs, especially without an Ellsbury-type. Unlike 2013, the team has trailed often, and the last thing a squad behind by 3 or more runs needs is a player caught stealing. As the numbers show, it has almost seemed a self-fulfilling prophecy.
There are possibilities. Though Mookie Betts has only one so far, his totals in Double-A are impressive, as are those of Deven Morrero and Sean Coyle. Victorino, with 224 career steals, may eventually return to form. We probably will not see great improvement this season, however.
As Boston enters the free agent market next winter, a recognized base stealer should be up there with a power hitter on their list. Sabermetrics people have downplayed the importance of stealing, but it was definitely a large factor in last years’s World Series triumph.
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