Where are they now? – MPSF

No, this isn't some look into the distant or even not-so-distant past at collegiate and national-level players who have fallen off the scene (though it raises the question, Where Have You Gone, Tony Ciarelli?). This is a look at each team in the four major conferences and our (by which I of course mean my) expectations of them coming into this season. We're about two-thirds of the way through the season. A good time to see who have fallen short of expectations, who have met expectations, and who have blown them away.

We'll look at each team by conference, and present them in alphabetical order. Since I'm feeling equal parts lazy and sleepy as I write this, it'll just be the MPSF right now. The other conferences will get their own posts later.

BYU

What we expected — Strong, but not dominant. Contenders in the MPSF, but come NCAA's, probably the first or second team on the outside looking in.

What we've been getting –– Very safe to say BYU have out-paced those expectations. It's been oppo-by-committee with Ben Patch out of the picture, with Phil Fuchs and the completely out-of-the-blue Carson Heninger holding down the position. Neither can hold a candle to Patch, but with Taylor Sander being Taylor Sander they don't need to be. Everything else is just as solid as expected.

Going forward — BYU have 7 more home matches and 6 more on the road, but among the road matches is the Hawaii double-shot, so it feels like their remaining schedule is a bit more weighted toward home-court advantage. It's favourable; they could very easily go 10-3 in their next 13 like they have to date in their first 13, if not better. They'll be playing at home come MPSF tournament time and could very well be the top seeds again. Currently they're looking up at no one in the MPSF standings.The Cougars have exceeded expectations, no doubt.

Cal State Northridge

What we expected –– Not a whole lot. The Matadors suffered a bad collapse at the end of last season to miss out on the playoffs, and from last season to this they lost most of their main offensive pieces.

What we've been getting –– Pretty much that, sorry to say for Northridge. They enter this week's play at 3-8, with wins over Cal Baptist, Pacific, and USC. It's the last of those victories that has them clinging to the AVCA rankings at #15 this week, but they haven't won even a single set in this month of February. Not to beleaguer the point –– they've struggled. They've a good chance this week to get off that schnied when hosting UC San Diego.

Going forward –– After UCSD, they then get UC Irvine and next week Pacific, all at home. They could easily win two of those three, but after that it's home against BYU and Stanford and a pretty long road trip before closing the season out with three of four at home. It's not such a strong schedule, and the Matadors don't look likely to advance to the postseason. In that sense, they've met expectations, because they were awfully low.

Cal Baptist

What we expected — Not much. With Levi Cabral out of the picture, it was hard to see the Lancers having much in the way of an offence this season. After being no worse than competitive with quite literally everyone in their debut NCAA season, the expectation was for a big drop-off now that they're postseason-eligible.

What we've been getting — Very much a lower-order team. After curiously being ranked to start the season, and playing IPFW for third place at the Asics, they've won three matches, two in conference. The two MPSF wins are against fellow lightweights UC San Diego and Pacific. They've also beaten Princeton, in a sweep no less, and in perhaps a bit of an indictment against the East coast.

Going forward — At 2-8 in league, it's kinda pointless to examine the team's remaining schedule, but in so doing nothing really jumps out. It's a pretty representative MPSF schedule, so expect struggles. They should do well against Pacific and UCSD again, and I'd give them a shot against CSUN at home. Everything else….maybe a scattered set here and there. That's about it. Since, like CSUN, little was expected of Baptist this season, they've met expectations. They certainly were hoping to exceed them.

Hawaii

What we expected — Incremental growth from last season, when they snuck into the playoffs at the expense of CSUN's late collapse and Baptist's ineligibility. Likely not joining the true elite of the conference and nation.

What we've been getting — As a Hawaii fan (better just to own up than try to pretend I'm this inhuman machine without biases), it's been nice to see them win a good deal more than they've been losing. It's all pretty much gone according to plan. Brook Sedore has led the way in scoring, topping .300 efficiency on the season. Siki Zarkovic isn't far behind. Taylor Averill has, at least statistically, been a dominant middle blocker. The Rainbow Warriors enter this week at 7-3 in conference, with one loss to Long Beach State and the whole two-fer against UCSB going the way of the Gauchos. They've swept UCSD, CSUN, and Baptist. Admittedly that's not the hardest point of the schedule, especially one like Hawaii's that isn't a simple double round-robin like anyone else's. But you can only beat the teams you play, and so far Hawaii have done well at that.

Going forward — Upcoming two-fers against USC, UCLA, and UC Irvine, and four matches in five days against Stanford and Pacific will be bigger tests for the Rainbow Warriors than anything they've done so far. The last four are against BYU (home) and Pepperdine (mainland). Hopefully Hawaii won't be playing for their playoff lives in those matches, and more just seeding, but either way they'll be very significant. With the schedule so tilted towards later in the season, it's tough to say so far, but Hawaii have certainly no worse than met expectations. You could argue they've slightly exceeded them.

Long Beach State

What we expected — About the same as BYU, down to the first name of their star holdover. Taylor Crabb is the reigning national player of the year, so winning the award again certainly wasn't out of the question. Dollars to donuts, I expected them to be 'close but no cigar' in terms of making the NCAA tournament — much like last year.

What we've been getting — Crabb has absolutely met expectations, maybe even exceeded them (which is unbelievable); as of this writing, he's one kill shy of an even five per set on the season, at .359 efficiency. First team All-American status is all but a given, and NPOY could easily come Crabb's away again, too. The team as a whole are a seemingly middling 6-4 in league, but it bears pointing out that they've had very little home cooking so far this season. They've had just two home matches, losing to USC but beating then-#1 Pepperdine. With road wins over Stanford, UCLA, and Hawaii (split two-fer against the Rainbow Warriors), you'd have to be satisfied with that.

Going forward — The team's next eight are at home, six league matches and then the Active Ankle, so there's tremendous hay to be made. They close out their season with four of five at home. It's as favourable a schedule as you can ask in the MPSF, and the 49ers could end up surpassing expectations. As for now, I'll say they've met expectations.

Pacific

What we expected — A sadly forgettable final season to go along with the many sadly forgettable seasons that preceded it, notwithstanding standout libero Javier Caceres. On VolleyTalk, I spitballed a remote chance of making the playoffs, but I never really believed that.

What we've been getting — Basically that. At just 1-7 in conference, playoffs are as much a dream as they ever were. Caceres has a decent shot at an All-American nod, and I'd put middle blocker Tommy Carmody in honourable mention consideration. Beyond those two, the Tigers really have no one who would be on anyone else's roster (certainly, no one who would actually play for anyone else at this level).

Going forward — One bright spot for Pacific is they have a fair-to-middlin' chance of winning their final home match, being as it is against Cal Baptist. That's about the only match left on their schedule where I'd give them even a puncher's chance, though. I hate to sound heartless, but this is kinda why I didn't consider it some tragedy over the offseason when the program was cut. I do feel bad for the student-athletes, particularly since most of them, as said, wouldn't be playing at this level if they were at another school, but on a competitive level not a whole lot is lost. Pacific have met expectations, considering there basically weren't any.

Pepperdine

What we expected — A drop-off from last year, with star hitter Maurice Torres lost to graduation. Possibly making the MPSF tournament, but little more.

What we've been getting — Well here's about as wrong as I've ever been (and I've got a few doozies on record). Pepperdine have been national heavyweights this season, getting the AVCA #1 ranking for a week earlier this year. There's little doubt now that they'll host in the MPSF tournament and they could very possibly still host the whole thing. The loss of Torres was but a blip on the radar; Josh Taylor has been outstanding, and Matt West at setter remains as consistently excellent as ever. The supporting cast has been everything you could ask. I never really thought of Pepperdine as being the best team in the nation, even as they held that ranking, but there's no question they belong in the discussion.

Going forward — There's some dates on the calendar coming up that are really tantalising, namely the return matches between the Waves and some other MPSF stalwarts they beat the first time at home, BYU and UCLA. And then there's UCSB….more on them later. In terms of a home/road split, it's pretty even, and the Waves will end with three in a row at home. They're looking strong, having wildly exceeded expectations, at least mine, and will be in the discussion for at-large consideration come NCAA time — assuming they even need it.

Stanford

What we expected — Nothing less than conference and national championship contenders.

What we've been getting — Oh, Stanford. Stanford Stanford Stanford. I feel like they've really underachieved this season, because how are they not better than their results? I sure would have guessed them to be better than 5-5 in conference, especially since four of those five wins are against Baptist, CSUN, UCSD, and Pacific. They're only beating the teams they should beat handily. And they are beating them handily — they didn't lose a set to any of those four — but they're just not getting over the hump against better teams. Five-set losses to UCLA, BYU, UCSB, and Long Beach State have got to be so incredibly maddening. Particularly since it's not exactly obvious why they've struggled. Steven Irvin and Brian Cook could easily both be All-Americans again. The cast of characters at setter is probably too strong to see James Shaw be so recognised, but I've liked what I've seen from him when I've seen it. Statistically, the team's biggest deficiency is up the middle. I thought the pins were strong enough to make do, but evidently not.

Going forward — It's a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way for the Cardinal. They need to start having their results match their vaunted potential, or they might just end up on the outside looking in on the conference tournament, never mind the national tournament. They've got to get W's against the likes of Pepperdine, Hawaii, USC, Irvine. Not all of them, but they can't lose to all of them either. Stanford have fallen short of expectations so far in 2014. Lofty as they were, I really felt them realistic for a team with this talent, and they just haven't delivered.

UC Irvine

What we expected — A probable drop-off, but coming from back-to-back national titles, that's not so surprising and not such a bad thing. How much of a drop-off wasn't clear. I put them second in my SWAG.

What we've been getting — A bit of a drop-off. The Anteaters aren't the conference and national heavyweights they were in 2012 and 2013. They've won all the matches they should win, and overachieved on a few nights, but they're pretty clearly second-tier this season. A 1-4 stretch with four losses to Loyola, Pepperdine, USC, and BYU tells that tale. No shame in any of those losses, but national contenders wouldn't drop all four. Home wins against USC and Pepperdine this past week could mean the Anteaters are getting it together. Or it could just be variance. At this point, I'd tend toward the latter. It would take a more exhaustive look than I really want to do for this post, but it could also track to who's at setter. Three Anteater setters have seen significant playing time — senior Daniel Stork, who I expected to be the starter coming into this season, Chilean import Roberto Frazzoni (junior), and freshman Michael Saeta, who has played the most of the three. Saeta still is listed on the UCI website as an opposite, though I'm taken to understand he played both positions in high school. It's been a bit of a revolving door at other positions, too. Even though we're not especially close to the end of the season, the only Anteater to have played every set so far is returning All-American libero Michael Brinkley, who remains brilliant as ever. There's just not a lot of 'wow' coming from this team like there was in the past couple of years, though.

Going forward — It's all but certain that UCI's reign of national dominance will come to an end this season. They'll more than likely make the MPSF tournament, but will probably not get to play at home. This is the MPSF, so I genuinely believe anyone who makes that tournament has the shot to get white-hot, win it, and make the nationals (just like UCSB memorably did back in 2011 as I believe the MPSF 7-seeds), but that's not something you can bank on. In terms of SWAG'ing them in second place, UCI have fallen short of expectations, but I'm not sure that pick was entirely fair. This season was always going to pale in comparison to the last two, and so it has.

UC San Diego

What we expected — The usual Sisyphean task for this small Division II school in a league with national stalwarts.

What we've been getting — Oof. I don't like to kick people when they're down, so this'll be a short entry. The Tritons are winless on the season, at 0-13 as of this writing. They pushed Baptist to five, and Pacific to four — all 11 other matches have been sweeps. Usually the Tritons are good for a shock win or two, especially in the early going against East coast or Midwest teams (they beat Lewis last year). Not this year.

Going forward — No reason to expect it won't be more of the same, though you've gotta pull for them to crack the win column. Modest as they were, you can only say UCSD have fallen short of expectations this year, because you'd have liked them to at least be competitive on a nightly basis. Other than a couple of blips against fellow lightweights, it hasn't happened that way.

UC Santa Barbara

What we expected — Frankly, not a great deal with 2013 national hitting percentage king Dylan Davis gone to graduation. I SWAG'd them in ninth place, on the outside looking in at the MPSF tournament.

What we've been getting — Uh, can I get a Mulligan? At 7-3 in conference, UCSB have been one of the nation's better teams this year. It's fair to point out that they've played only three road matches so far, though travel is really not a big consideration for any of the LA-area teams most of the time (if they host Hawaii, what do they have, two flights a season? Three?). Wins over Stanford, Hawaii twice, Pepperdine, and Long Beach speak to the Gauchos' quality this season. And they've done it without any real standouts. Leading scorer Austin Kingi is just barely over 3 kills per set on the season, but Matt Hanley (a name I don't ever recall saying before) isn't far behind, and four other Gauchos average at least 1 per set. That's offence-by-committee, and here's the proof that it can work. Towering setter Jonah Seif is over 10 assists per set so far this year. He's also playing to his height, something he really didn't do much last year, at a block per set exactly as of this writing. Getting that from your setter is a big bonus, and the Gauchos look to be a very strong blocking team. It's a path to success I didn't really see for them, but good on them for seizing it.

Going forward — The team's schedule lists their first-round MPSF tournament match as being at home. While that looks likely, it's a bit early yet to to have clinched, isn't it? After all, they're still looking up at BYU and UCLA in the conference standings. But only them. The Gauchos still have to play the Cougars twice, which could be problematic, and the 5 March return bout with UCLA will no doubt be a great match too. Elsewhere though, it should be pretty smooth sailing for the team with the hat logo. No doubt UCSB have vastly exceeded expectations for this season, and we'll see them in the playoffs.

UCLA

What we expected — National title favourites, simply put. UCLA were arguably the hottest team in the nation at the end of last year's regular season, have not-too-arguably the best coach in the game, and brought back most of everyone of consequence from 2013.

What we've been getting — It's all been going to form. The Bruins are 8-2 as of this writing, a match and a half back of BYU in the MPSF standings, but I'm hard-pressed to point to a bad result so far this season. 'National favourites' does not mean they're expected to run the table, and losses to Pepperdine and Long Beach State aren't indefensible. They dominated Hawaii's Outrigger Hotels tournament, they've beaten Stanford twice, UCSB, UCI, and dispatched with the lightweights on the schedule with ease. Robart Page has been a scoring menace, though, even though he's a pin and not a middle, I can't help but be a little underwhelmed by his blocking output considering how enormous dude is. Gonzalo Quiroga is having another great season, scoring as a #2 at the rate most teams would be happy for their #1, and averaging a service ace every two sets. UCLA are a massively strong serving team, with three aces every two sets and only very slightly more errors than their opponents on the year. This is what we expected to see.

Going forward — Notably, UCLA and BYU still have both of their regular-season matches yet to play. It's not at all unlikely that they'll end up playing a third and maybe even a fourth time this season. That and a double-shot at Hawaii, along with some scattered potential 'trap' matches (return match with Pepperdine, Stanford at Maples, return match with Long Beach) are the highlights of their remaining schedule, but they should be fine on the whole. UCLA have met expectations this year, and that means a lot considering what those expectations were. Well done, guys.

USC

What we expected — Either high middle-tier or low high-tier. Last season's doldrums were a blip caused mainly by a rough spate of injuries. Barring the same this year, they'd certainly do better.

What we've been getting — And they have done better. USC clinging to the AVCA rankings last year with lopsided records, and not lopsided in the good way, is what kind of disenchanted me from going to 15 with my own power rankings (which will return next week). No equivocation in putting a number next to USC's name this year. USC's biggest accomplishment this year, oddly enough, is beating Loyola. You usually wouldn't say that a West coast's team's biggest cap-feather is a win over a Midwest team, but they're the only ones who have defeated the Ramblers so far in 2014. With the notable exception of a three-set loss to Northridge, it's been typical dog-eat-dog action in the MPSF for the Trojans. Beat Irvine, lose to Pepperdine. Beat Long Beach, lose to BYU. Beat Santa Barbara, lose to UCLA (though I bet that one stings for them). Hotshot junior setter Micah Christenson has been everything he's cracked up to be and then some, approaching 12 assists per set on the year (with 10 considered the standard mark of excellence and 11 considered excellent indeed, 12 would be very impressive). His service aces are a bit down, but stats don't tell the whole story when it comes to serving (well, not that they tell the whole story for much of anything, but especially not serving). Lucas Yoder is making a strong case to be national freshman of the year, averaging close to 4 kills per set. Senior libero Henry Cassiday puts himself in All-American consideration with better than 3 digs per set (all but unheard of in the men's game).

Going forward — You have to like their chances in the MPSF as much as anyone this side of their crosstown rivals in blue and gold. They'll certainly make the playoffs, may end up hosting, and hey, who knows. I don't (quite) have them on the same level as BYU, UCLA, Pepperdine, Long Beach, and such, but it's not by a wide margin that they fall short. USC have definitely met expectations this year. You could argue they've exceeded them.