The NBA offseason is not over, but with the draft and the first couple weeks of free agency in the rear view mirror, most teams have already made the majority of the moves they intend to make, and we know the direction each franchise is taking. Plenty of lottery teams had strong offseasons that could set them up well for the future, but three teams made moves that left many scratching their heads.
Defining an offseason as good or bad, won or lost, before it even is completely over, can be futile. As my colleague Josh Cornelissen pointed out in his article on the winners of the offseason, no one really knows who did the best until we reach, at the least, next offseason.
But NBA free agency is arguably as fun as the actual playing of the basketball games, and we love to talk about it and make quick and sometimes harsh opinions on the decisions of players and franchises alike. This free agency was especially interesting, as the huge salary cap leap led to the ballooning of contracts and it was increasingly difficult to determine whether a deal was good value or not.
But we at The Lottery Mafia have done our best to make sense of such a volatile time in the NBA, and even in the confusion, a few teams appeared to stand above the rest in making the most questionable moves of the offseason.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
The argument can be made that the Lakers had a strong offseason, just on the back of their draft picks. Los Angeles held on to the second pick in the draft, enabling them to add Brandon Ingram, one of the two stars in this draft. Ingram is a talented, versatile wing who will be a joy for fans in L.A. and all around the league to watch develop this year and beyond, and he is a major addition for the future of this team. Second round pick Ivica Zubac is naturally much less heralded, but the massive Croatian big man has plenty of intrigue and should also get solid opportunities this season. The Lakers made out very well in the draft and have a strong foundation of youth to build on.
But I think it’s fair to say no one had a worse free agency than the Los Angeles Lakers. They re-signed Jordan Clarkson to a reasonable deal, but even before looking at the free agents they actually signed, their reputation in the free market has taken a major hit. Last year’s meeting with LaMarcus Aldridge was one of the few free agent meetings ever that did not “go well,” as Aldridge was critical of how little they talked about basketball in the meeting. But at least Aldridge met with them. This year, getting an audience to even listen to their pitches was difficult. Kevin Durant wasn’t at all interested in what they had to offer, which is pretty understandable, but even Hassan Whiteside wouldn’t take a meeting with them. Their young core is certainly promising, but evidently not a selling point to quality free agents yet.
And quality is the key word, as the free agents who met, and signed, with the Lakers leave plenty to be desired.
One of the first deals to be reported when free agency opened up was that of the Lakers and Timofey Mozgov. Mozgov had a solid season two years ago, anchoring a physical Cavs defensive lineup, but he drifted into irrelevance last year. He went from anchor, to backup off the bench towards the end of the season, to DNP-CD in most of the playoffs, especially the Finals. Cleveland found a lot more success with Tristan Thompson playing as a small-ball five.
Despite Mozgov quickly becoming an afterthought at the end of the bench, the Lakers felt compelled to quickly offer him a four-year, $64 million deal right out of the gate. Of course, $16 million today is not what $16 million was even just a year ago, but comparatively that is still an absurd number for a player who couldn’t get on the court when it mattered and whose style of play is gradually being phased out of the NBA. And the length of the deal is even more ridiculous. A one or two year deal, at any price, really can’t hurt a team’s outlook regardless of how the player performs, but the fact that the Lakers will still be paying Mozgov $16 million a year four years from today should be terrifying to fans.
The other free agent signing was Luol Deng. The Deng signing is a lot less questionable than Mozgov. Despite being 31 last year, Luol Deng was an important player for the Miami Heat, having a bit of a resurgence after a couple down years. He played 35 minutes per game in the playoffs and shot 42 percent from three. The Lakers need a veteran presence, and Deng will be great for that, but he was signed to a four-year, $72 million contract. As a player who has dealt with many injuries in the past, it’s fair to wonder how well he will perform when he’s 35.
In three of four years the Lakers’ core may be ready to contend, but there is a strong chance $34 million of their cap will be tied up in the shells of Timofey Mozgov and Luol Deng, which is why I really didn’t like their offseason.
2. New York Knicks
The Knicks are another team that decided to speed up their rebuild by assembling a team that would’ve killed the competition in 2011. They were of course on the receiving end of Derrick Rose in the aforementioned trade, their first big move of the offseason. Rose has come nowhere near his MVP-form after having multiple knee surgeries, and it is highly likely he never gets back there. However, the allure of what he once was will be forever appealing to teams thinking they could be the place he figures it all out again and takes back the NBA, and it’s the Knicks’ turn to be this team.
I don’t believe giving up Lopez, Grant, and Jose Calderon was that bad of a deal to take a chance on Rose, but I also don’t think going for an inefficient chucker at point guard was the right move for a team wanting to exploit Carmelo Anthony’s and Kristaps Porzingis’ talents as much as possible.
And then New York threw out a huge deal for Rose’s former teammate, Joakim Noah. This move makes a lot of sense for a few reasons. Noah obviously has good chemistry with Rose, really wanted to be in New York with Phil Jackson, and is the kind of passing big man that would work in the triangle if that is still the plan. He is also only a couple years removed from being an MVP finalist. But it’s also hard to say what kind of player they’ll be getting in Noah, especially in the third or fourth year of his $72 million deal. Last season, Noah only played in 29 games. He has battled injuries for a while, and no one can question his toughness. But how long can the 31-year-old be effective? It’s the same question as it is with Rose: can Noah reach anything close to the level we saw before, or are his better days simply behind him?
New York made two other signings that are a degree better. Brandon Jennings was brought in on a cheap two-year deal. There is minimal risk in this, and Jennings is reportedly excited for his sixth man role, a role I (as a Bucks fan) always thought was best for him. Courtney Lee signed for a four-year deal, and he is a quality three-and-D player who should be of great value to the Knicks on the wing, where they’re lacking in talent and depth.
Those signings are good value, but also don’t move the needle much. Rose and Noah are the big ones, and the returns on them are very much in doubt. Even if they stay healthy, the ceiling for them and accordingly for the team can’t be too high, potentially putting the New York Knicks stuck in the dreaded NBA purgatory, the last place any team should want to be.
3. Chicago Bulls
What a whirlwind this offseason was for the Bulls. A team that is normally cautious and quiet made some of the biggest moves in the NBA outside of Durant to Golden State. It all began when they traded away Derrick Rose, a sad day for all basketball fans in Chicago. Rose has never been able to find his pre-injury form, and ultimately it was the right move for Chicago to move on from the hometown kid. The return for Rose was solid, but not great. Robin Lopez is an underrated center who is strong defensively and passable on the offensive end, and Jerian Grant is still an interesting point guard who will have a new chance to prove himself.
Trading Rose could’ve been the first step in a rebuild, and it looked like that might’ve been the plan on draft night, as there were heavy rumors of Jimmy Butler possibly being moved to either Minnesota or Boston, but nothing materialized.
Then, Chicago went the opposite direction, instead deciding to throw together a competitive team through free agency, and their moves made little sense, unfortunately.
They signed two well-known talented basketball players in Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo. However, neither is at the peak of their powers anymore, and the fit with them and Butler raises multiple questions. First of all, who is going to shoot the ball from the outside? Rondo, Wade, and Butler are all poor from behind the arc, as Butler is the only one above 30 percent from three (32 percent) for their career. The Bulls will essentially be relying on Doug McDermott, Nikola Mirotic, and Denzel Valentine to provide all of the spacing, a tough task for a few inconsistent young players.
Wade also bumps down Butler to the small forward position. Jimmy Butler is a man and can handle guarding bigger small forwards, but his ideal position is at shooting guard, where he can more take advantage of his size and physicality against smaller players on the other end of the court. Failing to put your best player in the best position to succeed is not a smart strategic choice, so the fit is highly questionable with this team.
The talent is clearly there, and I would bet on this team getting back to the playoffs this year (which is the desire of Chicago’s ownership), but what will they gain for the future? Wade and Rondo are on two-year contracts, so if it doesn’t work the Bulls can recover, but I don’t see these two years producing meaningful results for this storied franchise.
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