Who has the best 1-2 punch in the AL?

Hey Guys! Bottom Line Rob here… Through out March I chimed in on Wednesdays to give you my two cents on the latest Red Sox rumblings. As we move into the 2008 season, I’ll be checking in on Sundays – but you can catch me every day at The Bottom Line Blog. See you there… and Go Sox!
The American League is full of Cy Young Candidates: Josh Beckett, C.C. Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Eric Bedard… but many of those superstar pitchers have a partner in the No. 2 spot that gives their team a scary 1-2 punch. Having that 1-2 punch at the top of your rotation can be the key to a successful season and a shot at a Championship…
So who has the best 1-2 punch in the American League? Let’s take a look…
Boston Red Sox
Josh Beckett — 20-7, 3.27 ERA, 194 K
Daisuke Matsuzaka — 15-12, 4.40 ERA, 201 K
Josh Beckett is starting the season on the DL due to a tweaked back, but he seems ready to make a start in Totonto next week or pitch the home Opener on April 8th. He was the only 20 game winner in 2007 and was untouchable in the postseason. With Curt Schilling out, Daisuke Matsuzaka emerged as the No. 2 starter and won 15 games in his first year in America.
Bottom Line: Both pitchers have the stuff to win 20 games this season. With a year of experience and a growing relationship with his teammates, Matsuzaka is poised to improve on his 2007 numbers, but his first start of 2008 showed us that he still struggles with one-inning meltdowns and continues to dance around batters rather than challenge them. Beckett is in the prime of his career and, despite the injury, seems ready to repeat his stellar 2007 season.
Cleveland Indians
C.C. Sabathia — 19-7, 3.21 ERA, 209 K
Fausto Carmona — 19-8, 3.06 ERA, 137 K
Sabathia beat out Beckett and his fellow 19-game winner Carmona for the 2007 Cy Young Award. The hefty lefty will turn 28 this July, but with over 1400 innings already under his belt and a 290 lb. frame, one has to wonder how long it will take for the Cleveland ace to run into injury trouble. That said he’s won 11 or more games in 7 straight seasons with the Indians. Fausto will not be in the top 10 in strikeouts, but he knows how to win games. After moving from the bullpen, Carmona won 19 games by keeping batters guessing. This year batters will have much more to work with as they prepare to face the young righty, and that may result in a slight regression.
Bottom Line: Both pitchers won 19 games for a solid offense in 2007. There’s no reason they can’t do it again, but all those wins didn’t help them in the playoffs. That ALDS loss will either inspire them or cripple them in 2008. Look for C.C. to continue to dominate, but Carmona’s ERA will climb back up into the high 3’s.
Seattle Mariners
Erik Bedard — 13-5, 3.16 ERA, 221 K
Felix Hernandez — 14-7, 3.92 ERA, 165 K
Bedard moves from a struggling Baltimore club to an AL West title contender in the Seattle. Bedard is a strike out machine that keeps batters off the bases (1.09 WHIP, .212 BAA). He turned 29 on March 6th and is hitting the prime age for a pitcher. He could have been a 20 game winner last season if he had a better offense, and perhaps a stronger bullpen, backing him up. This is King Felix’s third full season in the pros, but he’ll turn just 22 next week… He’ll continue to chip away at that 3.92 ERA as he matures, but he’s already got two 12+ win seasons on his resume.
Bottom Line: Niether of these guys have come close to winning 20 games, but with J.J. Putz as their closer and a solid offense, both youngsters have the stuff to each that goal. That said, Seattle was 2nd to the Yankees with a .287 team BA last year, but they only scored 794 runs… and that makes it tough for any pitcher to earn the win.
Other contenders
Detroit Tigers: Justin Verlander (18-6, 3.66) and Jeremy Bonderman (11-9, 5.01)… or Kenny Rogers (2006: 17-8, 3.84)
Toronto Blue Jays: Roy Halladay (16-7, 3.71) and either A.J. Burnett (10-8,3.75) or Dustin McGowan (12-10, 4.08)
LA Angels: John Lackey (19-9, 3.01), Kelvim Escobar (18-7, 3.40) and/or Jered (13-7, 3.91)… if they are all healthy…
New York Yankees: Chien-Ming Wang (19-7, 3.70) and Andy Pettite (15-9, 4.05)
Bottom Line: If Dice-K improves and Carmona regresses, I’d give the edge to the Red Sox here – but that’s only if the Sabathia and Beckett both repeat their 2007 performances. Beckett and Matsuzaka also get a few bonus points for thier performances in the 2007 postseason… That said, the Indians have 5 solid starters and a wicked good bullpen… which leads into an entirely different question – who has the best pitching staff?
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