Today is a big day around the NBA. And, not just because it signifies the start of the league’s second half or, more locally, the beginning in earnest of the Blazers improbable run at the playoffs. No, today is big because 3PM marks the NBA’s trade deadline, and if just about every year prior is any indication, we are going to see a flurry of moves right around the deadline that could shape the league for years to come.
Superstars like Carmelo Anthony, Pau Gasol, Gary Payton, Ray Allen, Rasheed Wallace, Dikembe Mutumbo and more have changed hands on deadline day, each of which had a dramatic effect on the league and its eventual champions. There have also been dozens upon dozens of smaller deals made alongside the blockbusters that have impacted many a team, for better or worse.
And, while the Blazers are expected to stay mostly quiet this trade deadline, you know GM Neil Olshey will be working the phones, just in case one of those famed “needle moving” deals comes along. That means constantly evaluating his roster to determine who is expendable in the right deal, who is in the long-term picture, and who (if anyone) is outright untouchable.
Even if the Blazers ultimately stand pat and play this season out with their current roster, these types of roster decisions are needing to be constantly evaluated as there are undoubtedly many moves to make in the coming years as this Blazer rebuild/retool kicks into high gear.
So, let’s do our best Neil Olshey impersonation, breakdown this Blazers roster, and see if we can identify which Blazer players are most likely to be dealt at today’s deadline (or beyond), and which are most likely to stick around. And, for players under contract past this season (which is most of them), this will serve as handy guide to potential offseason moves, as well.
Also, just to clarify, I’ve grouped the players based on their likeliness of being dealt (from least to most), not based on how valuable they are.
Not Going Anywhere
Damian Lillard – With the departure of franchise cornerstone LaMarcus Aldridge (and the rest of the Blazers starting lineup) this past offseason, you better believe that the Blazers aren’t getting rid of their new face of the franchise anytime soon. And, if that weren’t enough, Lillard’s freshly inked extension that kicks in next season and will pay him up to $25 million per year make him nearly impossible to deal, even if Olshey wanted to… which he most certainly does not. Moving on.
It’s Probably Going To Cost You More Than You Want
Al-Farouq Aminu | Noah Vonleh
Similar to the bat you hit your first little league homerun with, the dinosaur posters that lined your room when you were 7, or your prized Arvydas Sabonis rookie card, there are just some things that have too much sentimental value to part with for any reasonable sum. For an NBA GM, those things are players who hand-picked for your team. Guys that you acquired, not because they were the “best available”, but because they were “your guys”. For Neil Olshey, that’s Al-Farouq Aminu and Noah Vonleh.
Olshey certainly had plenty of suitors interested in Nic Batum when the Blazers put him on the market last summer, so, you better believe that it wasn’t pure happenstance that brought the eminently talented, but unmistakably raw, to the Rose City. Similarly, when the countdown to free agency struck zero, one of the very first move made by the suddenly re-developing Blazers was to ink Aminu to a 4-year deal as the clock struck midnight.
Clearly Olshey sees both as not just assets, but, building blocks of his roster. At the same time, while both are nice players, neither is likely to leave opposing GMs overly excited about pillaging their talents form Portland’s roster. So, while Olshey would certainly part with one or both should a blockbuster deal necessitate it, you know that Olshey values both of these players more than most other teams, which makes constructing a deal centered on either player a long shot at best.
Well, If You’re Gonna Offer THAT
CJ McCollum – The Blazers breakout star, and leading candidate for NBA Most Improved Player award, is just scratching the surface of his immense potential, and is still on his rookie-scale deal. These things make him (arguably) the highest valued piece the Blazers possess. In a league dominated by guard play, McCollum is the perfect sidekick next to Lillard on the court, and has developed a close relationship off the court as well. So, don’t expect him to be shipped out any time soon.
That being said, if Neil Olshey picks up the phone and he’s suddenly being offered Blake Griffin or Kevin Love or Jimmy Butler or some other young-ish star who is a more natural fit with Lillard, well, a trigger may get pulled. Sure, it’s an unlikely scenario, but, when you’re rebuilding a team and you have a high value asset, you’d be foolish to not at least entertain some options.
Needle Movers Must Only Apply
Mason Plumlee | Ed Davis | Allen Crabbe
OK, now we’re getting into plausible territory. With the Blazers more concerned with 2 years from now than this season, this trio of young(ish) talent comprises of the (theoretical) core of Blazers bench rotation for the next few seasons (Yes, Plumlee is starting now, but, he fits better as a bench piece going forward).
Each player brings an elite or near-elite skill to the table, and each figure to have some room to improve going forward. They are also each on team-friendly deals, with Davis locked up for 4 years at a reasonable price, and Crabbe and Plumlee on cheap rookie deals and set to hit team-controlled restricted free agency this year and next, respectively, giving all three players some real value on their own, as well as being desirable throw ins to any blockbuster trade the Blazers get sucked into.
Of course, that’s the rub. All three seem to factor (to varying degrees) into Portland’s future plans, so, it would be shocking to see one flipped for a similar talent, or a middling draft pick. If anyone from this trio is on the move, it’s likely as part of a much bigger deal that brings in a true difference maker to Rip City.
Contract Filler/Throw Ins
Tim Frazier | Luis Montero | Cliff Alexander | Pat Connaughton
None of these players likely carries any value around the league, making their inclusion in any trade purely a matter of one of two things: necessity or curiosity. If an otherwise completed trade comes up just short of passing muster under league CBA scrutiny, these are the guys likely thrown into the mix to make the numbers work. Likewise, if another team is at all tenuous when it comes to finalizing a deal, they could (theoretically, at least) take a flyer on one of this mostly unknown group. Of course, that would mean they’d actually have seen one of them play… which is more than even the most die-hard of Blazer fans can really say. That being said, no one is batting at including any of these guys in a trade if it’ll get the deal done.
Expendable in the Right Deal
Meyers Leonard
OK, now we’re getting into the thick of things! While the other trio of youngsters in the rotation (Plumlee, Crabbe and Davis) may not have quite the upside as the Blazers mercurial big man “project” (can he really be called that anymore?), they all bring with them a level of consistency that Leonard simply hasn’t been able to match at this point in his career. Plus, with rumors of the Blazers and the pending free agent’s camp being more than just a little apart in contract extension talks prior to this season, it’s an eminent possibility that The Legend won’t be in Rip City going forward.
Now, that’s far from a sure thing, and after having invested so much time and effort into developing Leonard into a uniquely talented player, you better believe the Blazer brass will do their best to not let him get away for nothing. So, if there is a deal on the table that brings back some real long-term value for Leonard, you better believe Olshey will not just explore that opportunity, but, would be willing to pull the trigger. The question will be: does such a trade exist? Well, we’ll likely know in the next few hours.
Have Skills, Will Travel
Chris Kaman | Gerald Henderson
Ah, the two vets on the roster. With ages extending beyond the team’s “window” and contacts expiring at the end of the season, neither player seems long for this Blazer roster. It’s been long surmised that if the Blazers could get anything of value for either player at the trade deadline, they’d likely do so. Four-plus months into the season, not much seems to have changed on that front.
While Kaman’s role is firmly planted on the bench (with occasional assistant coaching duties related to the team’s young bigs), Henderson has recently worked his way into the Blazers regular rotation, providing a nice spark off the bench over recent weeks. Yet, even with his recent spurt of solid play coinciding with the Blazers 12 wins in 15 tries heading into the All Star break, the thought of passing up any substantive offer for either player would be a foolish move, even (and maybe especially) if it costs the Blazers a spot in the playoffs.
Henderson’s recent run of good play could potentially catch the eye of a playoff contender looking to beef up their wing rotation, but, the rumor mill has been pretty quiet to date. And, while I’m sure Olshey would love to hold out for a real asset, if one of these guys could be flipped for even a conditional 2nd round draft pick, it’d have to be a considered solid return on two players who won’t be on the roster next season.
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