One minor dilemma the Pittsburgh Pirates will have heading into the upcoming season is who will better serve the team in the leadoff position in the lineup: Gregory Polanco or Josh Harrison?
Spring training is only about a month away for the Pittsburgh Pirates. The major off-season moves are likely behind the team, and it’s time to start looking forward to the season. Spring training is, of course, exciting because it means that the regular season is right around the corner. But it’s also exciting because we get to see all of the new off-season acquisitions in action, the future of the team in a number of minor league prospects, and a variety of position battles take place. But there are other, seemingly minor stories that the team will be monitoring as well. One that should get the attention of manager Clint Hurdle and the coaching staff is who is the best candidate to bat leadoff for the Pirates in 2016.
Recently our own Steve Kubitz took a look who the ideal candidate is for the cleanup spot, which is another intriguing battle to keep an eye on. For the leadoff spot, I believe there are two candidates competing for the role: Gregory Polanco and Josh Harrison. Both had significant at-bats from the first spot in the order in 2015 (417 for Polanco and 268 for Harrison), and both have batted in the leadoff spot more than they have in any other spot in the order over the course of their careers. Steve Kubitz also took a look recently at how Polanco compares to other leadoff hitters in the National League, but I feel that while Polanco compares decently to other leadoff batters in the NL, he still had competition on his own team for that spot in Harrison.
There are a couple different factors for a team to consider when deciding who should bat leadoff. First, obviously, is whether a particular player’s talents translate well into being an ideal leadoff hitter. That player should, ideally, have a high on-base percentage, speed on the base-paths, and the ability to translate that speed into runs. But that’s not the only factor. The team also has to consider, though while that player might be great in the leadoff role, the lineup might best be served with that player in a different lineup spot. After all, the team needs to make sure that its lineup as a whole can best help them win games, not that one spot in the order is perfect or that one player is best serving his own talents in that role.
So let’s consider both of these factors. At first glance, fans might jump and say Polanco should be the lead-off guy. This makes sense, considering we saw him more than we did Harrison in that role last year (which was largely due to Harrison’s mid-season injury). But let’s let the stats be our guide for this exercise. From the first spot in the order, Polanco slashed .261/.328/.391 in 2015 with six home runs and 36 RBIs, while Harrison slashed .276/.324/.373 with two home runs and 17 RBIs. What’s interesting here is that while Harrison has a higher batting average by 15 points, Polanco has a slightly higher OBP. Neither has an ideal OBP for a leadoff batter, but we have to take what we’re given. For their careers, Polanco has a .252/.323/.372 line while Harrison has a .303/.343/.457 line. These career numbers push the scales largely in Harrison’s favor, but stats can be deceiving. The career stats take into account Harrison’s breakout 2014 campaign where he sported a WAR over 5.0 while also including Polanco’s rookie campaign where he struggled and was eventually benched. I’m willing to argue that 2015 is a better indicator of the futures of both players, as Polanco continues to adjust to the league and (hopefully) improves, while Harrison’s 2014 might turn into an outlier when his career is all said and done.
Speed-wise, Polanco had 27 steals in 2o15 and is a career 73 percentage base-stealer, while Harrison had ten steals in 2015 and is a career 68 percent base-stealer; the low number of steals in 2015 for Harrison is largely due to his injury. The base-stealing percentages for both players, however, are similar, but it’s important to note that Polanco is still young and is learning his way on the base-paths in the majors. Polanco has been praised for his speed in the field, largely due to his natural build, which should get better as he matures and grows. Harrison is four years older than Polanco and has seen enough time in the majors that we can probably determine that his ability on the base-paths won’t drastically improve in the coming years.
Lastly, if a player doesn’t use hits to get on base, walks are also one way to do that. In 2015, Polanco had a BB% of 8.4% and has a rate of 8.8% for his career. Harrison had a BB% of merely 4.2% in 2015 and has a rate of just 3.6% for his career. Harrison clearly doesn’t walk as often as he should, but neither does Polanco. However, Polanco’s rate doubles that of Harrison’s, which is significant enough to be a factor in this case.
It’s hard to discern, based on the above stats alone, who performs better in the leadoff spot. Harrison might be the safer option, while Polanco could take another step forward in 2016 and pass Harrison by. I’d argue based on talent alone and my expectations for 2016, Polanco would be the better in the leadoff role than Harrison would be next year. Polanco should improve more, both in plate discipline and in discipline on the base-paths, and it’s worth the risk placing him in the one spot.
But the Pirates also have to evaluate if Polanco batting in that role best serves the team overall. For one, where would Harrison then bat if Polanco was at one? Would the team want his speed and his ability to potentially put up a high batting average at the number two spot, or do they think someone like Starling Marte is better there, while Harrison is better lower in the lineup? The number three spot belongs to Andrew McCutchen, and Harrison isn’t a cleanup batter, and Francisco Cervelli and Jordy Mercer will likely occupy the seven and eight spots in the order, respectively. Ideally, if Polanco led off, I’d bat Harrison in the two spot and Marte in the fifth spot, behind Jung Ho Kang. There, his speed could play and the power and run-producing ability of Kang and Marte would fit better in the middle of the lineup.
But let’s say the team decided to bat Harrison in the one spot. Where would they put Polanco? Polanco’s power hasn’t developed yet like many have hoped, so he’s not a cleanup batter at this stage of his career. Typically when Polanco doesn’t lead off, Hurdle bats him in the two spot or in the seven spot. I think throwing him in the bottom of the order doesn’t do Polanco any good for his development, nor does it do the team any good by stashing his speed and his talent away. I’d say the team should slot him at two if Harrison was at one, with the rest of the lineup similar to what it would be if Polanco were at one.
By this logic, the rest of the lineup isn’t affected by whether Polanco or Harrison occupies the leadoff spot. Thus, it all comes full circle, as it makes sense to make this decision almost exclusively on who suits the qualities of a leadoff hitter the best in 2016. Who will sport the higher on-base percentage, who will steal more bases, and, overall, who will thrive in that role the most?
My vote goes to Polanco. If the rest of the lineup isn’t really affected by who the leadoff role goes to, and if I expect Polanco to improve both offensively and on the base-paths in 2016, then he takes the cake. I think his speed on the base-paths is much better than Harrison’s, and with improved discipline in his run game (which is arguably already better than Harrison’s), the team will want to put that to use as often and as quickly in games as possible. it’s also important to note that while the stats don’t necessarily speak to it, Polanco seemed to have extended periods of time lat year where his plate discipline was fantastic; he had at-bats with a high number of pitches and he was able to work walks in the necessary situations. Harrison shouldn’t miss a beat dropping to the second spot, where he can still use his speed and his knack for clutch hits in that role. Handing Polanco the keys to leading off the game also instills a sense of confidence from the team in him, which is something any young player could surely use. One day Polanco may be a middle-of-the-order threat, but for now, the team is best served with him leading off the game.
P.S. Let’s not forget Polanco’s ability to crush first pitches; he batted .431/.431/.615 with an OPS of 1.046 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2015, which could be intriguing when a pitcher is trying to groove an easy first pitch strike, especially at the beginning of the game or the beginning of an inning.
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