A week into the post Jack Zduriencik era for the Seattle Mariners has seen a flurry of articles, both local and national, analyzing what went wrong, not only this season but for Zduriencik’s entire tenure. Jack Z’s obsession with power hitters who crush long home runs at the expense of getting on base and playing solid defense has been discussed ad nauseum (including by me during the past two years at OSN). It seems that the time for whining and complaining about how bad Zduriencik was is over and Mariners fans should begin focusing on what direction ownership will take in the search for, and the ultimate hiring of, a new GM.

Analytics is the Present and the Future of Sports

Back in February of this year, even before Spring Training and long before the nightmare of the 2015 season began to unfold, ESPN published an article entitled, The Great Analytics Ranking. The article ranked every team in all the North American “Big Four” sports – MLB, NBA, NFL, and NHL – based on the degree to which each league and individual team “bought in” to the sports analytics movement.

Major League Baseball led the field with the most teams who were “all in,” which is to be expected given that the game lends itself best to analytics, that it has the longest history with advanced analytics, dating back even before Moneyball, and that the very mythology of the game is often told within the framework of statistics.

The NBA came in second among the leagues in adopting the revolution of analytical thinking. From limiting regular season minutes like the San Antonio Spurs do with an aging lineup to the increase in three point attempts across the game, the influence of analytics in the NBA is growing.

And, not surprisingly, the NFL lagged behind all the other sports, with not a single franchise categorized as “all in.” A handful of teams are considered “believers,” including the Dallas Cowboys and the defending Super Bowl champion, New England Patriots. (The Seattle Seahawks have “one foot in”}.

Analytics Leads the Way in MLB

Who are the teams that are “all in” for advanced analytics in MLB? Some of the usual suspects – the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, Oakland A’s, and Tampa Bay Rays – along with the Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, and the St. Louis Cardinals. It’s worth noting that two of these teams – the Astros and the Cardinals – are in first place in their division, and that three of these teams – the Cubs, Yankees, and Pirates – all currently hold wild card spots if the season were to end today. The Red Sox have won three World Series since going to advanced analytics back in 2003, and the small market Tampa Bay Rays consistently overachieves their small market payroll.

At the other end of the spectrum are the two “nonbelievers” – the Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins. The Phillies have steadily declined under Ruben Amaro, Jr. after winning the World Series in 2008 and are currently on pace to lose 97 games. With a little luck the Phils can lose 100. The Marlins are always in perpetual flux. A team, like the Mariners, who were expected to contend this year, should finish around 66-96.

Is it any coincidence that teams that are embracing advanced analytics are successful and that teams that reject advanced analytics are terrible? The correlation seems to be reasonably strong.

Where do the Mariners currently fit on the spectrum from “all in” to “nonbelievers?” The M’s under Jack Z occupied the category right in the middle, in between the tier of “all in” and “believers” and the tier of “skeptics” and “nonbelievers” in the wishy washy category of “one foot in.” Fellow occupants of “one foot in” include the Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants, and Texas Rangers. Clearly having “one foot in” has been very successful in the Bay area, but not so much in the Midwest.

There are indicators, though, that the categorization of the Mariners as middle of the pack in adopting advanced analytics may be overstated. Former special assistant to Jack Z in Seattle and current ESPN MLB analyst, Tony Blengino, is quoted as saying:

“Jack has never understood one idea about statistical analysis. To this day, he evaluates hitters on homers, RBI and batting average and pitchers by wins and ERA. Statistical analysis was foreign to him. But, he knew he needed it to get in the door.”

The history of Jack Z’s trades and free agent acquisitions while in Seattle, from Chone Figgins to Mark Trumbo, seem to indicate that once the foot is in the door, it’s ok to revert to form.

A Change of Organizational Philosophy is Needed

During the Zduriencik era from 2009 to the present, the Mariners have finished last in the AL in on base percentage (OBP) every season except one (2013 when they finished 13^th out of 15). Not surprisingly, each year the Mariners finished last in OBP, they also finished last in runs scored. Funny how that works.

As an organization, the Mariners need to move away from coveting power bats, like Mark Trumbo or last year’s top draft pick Alex Jackson, and start looking to develop players who get on base. While it is true that the Mariners have had poor teams when it comes to hitting with runners in scoring position (RISP), the simple fact is that they don’t have nearly enough runners on base in the first place.

Another glaring weakness of the big bopper types in the Mariners system is their lack of athleticism which translates into incredibly poor defense. If not for the debacle experiment in Boston, putting Hanley Ramirez in left field in front of the Green Monster, analysts would be pointing to Nelson Cruz in right field at spacious Safeco Field as possibly the worst defender in the AL. Mark Trumbo was so terrible in the outfield at other stops that he’s been converted to a below average first baseman. And, Alex Jackson’s limited athleticism behind the plate prompted a move to the outfield, where he has also been a poor defender, in an attempt to get his advanced bat to the majors, an attempt sidetracked by injuries thus far.

Given the dimensions of the home ball park, the next GM of the Mariners needs to focus on players who can take a walk, get on base consistently, and who can play at least average defense, preferably plus defense in the outfield. Either that, or move the fences in.

Who are Some Good Candidates?

As Mariners ownership begins the search for a new GM, they should begin by reading the aforementioned ESPN article on analytically inclined organizations and contacting the assistant GM’s from the teams in the “all in” category. Here’s some examples.

David Stearns, assistant GM for the Houston Astros, is 30 years old, only slightly older than Theo Epstein when he helped end the Curse of the Bambino in Bean Town, and has been in baseball since graduating from Harvard in 2007. According to his biography on the Astros front office page, he currently assists GM Jeff Luhnow, “in all baseball operations, including player evaluations, player transactions, and contract negotiations and helps oversee the Astros’ scouting, player development, and analytics department” (emphasis added). The infusion of youth and forward thinking would be a refreshing new start for the Mariners.

Shiraz Rehman has been one of two assistant’s GM for the Chicago Cubs during the Theo Epstein era (the Cubs employ two asst. GM’s) and also interned for the Boston Red Sox when Theo was GM there. Promoted to assistant GM in 2012 at the age of 34, he also brings an analytic approach to the game, as well as, again, youth, and a diversity that would fit right in the Emerald City.

Mike Hazen of the Boston Red Sox may be on the move with the ouster of Ben Cherington and the hiring of Mike Dombrowski as president of baseball operations. At age 38, Hazen was a finalist for the Los Angeles Dodgers GM position two years ago, he’s well respected for player development throughout the industry, and now at 41 he could be an excellent choice to turn around the M’s.

Just not “Established” and Entrenched

This is by no means meant to be an exhaustive list of possible candidates for the Mariners vacated GM position, but it is meant to give a sense of the kind of direction the Mariners should go in. Find someone from a forward thinking organization, someone young and energetic, to infuse some excitement into a team, a system, and a fan base that has been sorely in need of a coherent direction.

And, please don’t even interview Ruben Amaro when he gets fired by the Phillies early next month.