The Silver Slugger Awards are handed out by Louisville Slugger to the top offensive producers at each position in both leagues. Louisville Slugger states that their criteria are “a combination of offensive statistics including batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, as well as the coaches’ and managers’ general impressions of a player’s overall offensive value.”
Advanced metrics have proven that there isn’t a very strong correlation between batting average and run creation, but I really don’t have a problem with taking BA into consideration. OBP has a stronger correlation with run creation and when added to slugging, OPS comes closer still to giving us some insight into who are the real stars with the bat. Where I do have problems with Louisville Slugger’s criteria, is factoring in “coaches’ and managers’ GENERAL impressions.” And, no, I’m not worried about bias, as coaches and managers can’t vote for their own players. What I am concerned about is that “reputation” can, and often does, get in the way of objectively looking at performance over the course of one specific season.
A better way of determining the best offensive players for the purposes of the Silver Slugger Awards would be to factor in and weight heavily advanced hitting metrics like weighted on base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+). Rawlings actually started factoring in advanced defensive metrics like ultimate zone rating (UZR) when choosing Gold Glove winners. It’s time for Louisville Slugger to follow suit and incorporate advanced metrics into awarding the Silver Slugger.
Using wOBA and wRC+, and occasionally looking to ISO and traditional measures like BA, OBP, slugging, and OPS, I’ll go through the AL in this column and the NL in a later column to determine who should be awarded the Silver Slugger, but also make an educated guess as to who will actually win. (For a more detailed explanation of these statistics, see the glossary section at Fan Graphs).
Catcher
Not primarily thought of as an offensive position, there are only eight catchers in the AL with over 450 plate appearances and of those eight only two have a wRC+ above the league average of 100 – Jan Gomes of the Cleveland Indians and Kurt Suzuki of the Minnesota Twins. Gomes far outpaces Suzuki with a 121 wRC+ to 107.
Gomes’ traditional line is .278/.313/.472 with 21 HR, 74 RBI, and 61 R. Among AL catchers, that places him second in BA behind Suzuki at .288, fourth in OBP, but first in slugging. Brian McCann of the New York Yankees and Mike Zunino of the Seattle Mariners edged Gomes out in HR – 23 and 22 respectively – and McCann drove in one more run than Gomes. The Indians catcher also led all AL catchers in runs scored.
Even with this across the board dominance of offensive numbers, had McCann hit even .260 instead of .236, the award might have gone to the Yankees catcher on the basis of reputation and where he plays.
Who Should Win? Yan Gomes
Who Will Win? Yan Gomes
First Base
Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers led all AL 1B in WAR this season with 5.4, but a good portion of that was derived from not being as bad defensively as his AL Central counterpart Jose Abreu of the Chicago White Sox.
Abreu beat out Cabrera in virtually every offensive category. He had a higher batting average, higher OBP, higher slugging, hit 11 more HR, and drove in only 2 fewer. The only significant category that Cabrera dominated Abreu was in runs scored – 101 to 80 – but Cabrera also played on a team that scored 89 more runs than Abreu’s.
The advanced metrics clearly show Abreu’s dominance. His wOBA was .411 compared to Cabrera’s .384 and his wRC+ was 165 compared to Cabrera’s 147.
With a traditional stat line of .317/.383/.581 with 36 HR, 107 RBI, and 80 R, the Silver Slugger should go to Jose Abreu. But, .313/.371/.524 with 25 HR, 109 RBI, and 101 R, may be enough for Cabrera to collect the hardware based on past reputation. The difference in HR might prove to be the difference, but wOBA and wRC+ should be.
Who Should Win? Jose Abreu
Who Will Win? Miguel Cabrera
Second Base
The most offensive value towards WAR belongs to Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros, but that is largely a product of his league leading .341 BA and 56 stolen bases. While Altuve has decent pop, he trails 7 other AL 2B with at least 450 PA in ISO. But a closer examination of the numbers shows a compelling argument for Altuve.
It’s probably safe to say that the real battle at second base for the award is between Altuve and Robinson Cano of the Seattle Mariners. Cano’s big advantage comes in RBI, a statistic that is more a measure of opportunity than offensive skill. Cano drove in 82 runs while Altuve drove in 59. All other offensive categories are surprisingly close.
Altuve hit .341/.377/.453 with 7 HR, 59 RBI, 85 R, and 56 SB. Cano’s line looks like this – .314/.382/.454 with 14 HR, 82 RBI, 77 R, and 10 SB. Altuve has the better batting average and almost an identical slugging percentage while scoring more runs and stealing a ton more bases. Cano has a better OBP, more HR, and more RBI.
Altuve edges Cano in wOBA by .002 – .363 to .361 – while Cano edges out Altuve by 1 in wRC+ – 136 to 135. Where do we look next for tie breakers?
While Cano hit more HR, he didn’t hit the most at his position. That honor belongs to Brian Dozier of the Minnesota Twins with 23. Cano has more RBI than Altuve, but again doesn’t lead the league at his position. Ian Kinsler of the Texas Rangers drove in 92.
Altuve has more runs than Cano, but is tied for third at his position with Howie Kendrick of the Los Angeles Angels and behind Kinsler (100) and Dozier (112). No one is near Altuve in SB, with the next closest 2B, Jason Kipnis of the Cleveland Indians, swiping just 22.
In some additional advanced metrics, Altuve has a higher weighted runs created, (not adjusted to all position players), 105 to 97 over Cano. Altuve also has a higher weighted runs above average (wRAA) – 28.6 to 25.9.
I’m going to give the slight edge to Altuve, but I fully anticipate this award going to Cano.
Who Should Win? Jose Altuve
Who Will Win? Robinson Cano
Shortstop
What an offensive wasteland is the shortstop position in the AL. Only Jose Reyes of the Toronto Blue Jays and Eric Aybar of the Los Angeles Angels has a wRC+ above league average (100) among qualified AL SS, and that’s just barely above league average. Reyes recorded a 102 wRC+ and Aybar recorded a 101wRC+. It almost makes me want to just give the Silver Slugger to last place Derek Jeter with his 73 wRC+ as a farewell gift.
According to the advanced metrics, Reyes should take the award, as he is first in offensive WAR, first in wOBA at .321 and first in wRC+ with 102. But, this position is so bad and there’s so little separation between Reyes and shortstops with numbers below league average that I’m tempted to go off the reservation and go with the best traditional stat line that belongs to Alexi Ramirez of the Chicago White Sox. Let’s compare Reyes, Aybar, and Ramirez (1st, 2nd, and 3rd in wRC+ by the way).
Reyes hit .287/.328/.398 with 9 HR, 51 RBI, 94 R, and 30 SB. His wOBA was .321 and his wRC+ was 102.
Aybar hit .278/.321/.379 with 7 HR, 68 RBI, 77 R, and 16 SB. His wOBA was .308 and his wRC+ was 101.
Ramirez hit .273/.305/.408 with 15 HR, 74 RBI, 82 R, and 21 SB. His wOBA was .314 and his wRC+ was 97.
For the position, Reyes has the highest BA, scored the most runs, and trailed Alcides Escobar of the Kansas City Royals by one in stolen bases. In a year when six of the ten qualified AL SS had negative offensive components to their WAR (three, including Jeter had negative components on offense and defense), Reyes led the position.
I’m going to give the Silver Slugger to Reyes. It would be his first in the AL and second overall. Am I going to be surprised or outraged if it goes to Ramirez? No. Jeter, yes. Ramirez, no.
Who Should Win? Jose Reyes
Who Will Win? Jose Reyes or Alexi Ramirez
Third Base
This award is going to Adrian Beltre on both reputation and the numbers. He’s first in offensive WAR, first in wOBA, first in wRC+, first in BA, OBP, and slugging.
Josh Donaldson of the Oakland A’s was first in HR, first in RBI, and first in R, but his .255 BA should eliminate him from serious consideration. Donaldson is also second in wOBA and third in wRC+.
With a slash line of .324/.388/.492 and 19 HR, 77 RBI, and 79 R, Beltre should take the Silver Slugger at 3B in the AL. His .380 wOBA and 141 wRC+ seal the deal.
Who Should Win? Adrian Beltre
Who Will Win? Adrian Beltre
Outfield
Louisville Slugger awards three outfield Silver Slugger awards, irrespective of the specific position. In other words, there is no award for right field, center field, left field, but just the top three outfielders, which actually makes this exercise a bit easier.
Only four AL OF have a wRC+ over 150 – Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels, Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays, Michael Brantly of the Cleveland Indians, and J.D. Martinez of the Detroit Tigers. Just for the fun of it, let’s throw in the only 40 HR hitter of the season and the only other OF with a wRC+ over 130 in Nelson Cruz of the Baltimore Orioles.
We can just give the first award to Mike Trout, as he should also be the AL MVP. Here are his numbers – .287/.377/.561, 36 HR, 111 RBI, 115 R, and 16 SB. He was tied with Bautista for 1st in wOBA and was 1st in wRC+ with 167.
It’s probably also safe to hand out the second award to Bautista, as he will appeal to traditionalists as the only other 30 HR / 100 RBI / 100 R candidate.
Bautista’s numbers are .286/.403/.524 with 35 HR, 103 RBI and 101 R. Tied with Trout at .402 wOBA and second in wRC+ at 159, Jose Bautista takes the second Silver Slugger.
Where it gets a little tricky is awarding the third one. Branley and Martinez each have wRC+ in the 150’s (155 for Brantley and 153 for Martinez), but neither has more than 23 HR, while Nelson Cruz is looming out there with 40. Here are Brantley’s and Martinez’s numbers:
Brantley hit .327/.385/.506 with 20 HR, 97 RBI, 94 R, and 24 SB. His wOBA of .389 and wRC+ of 155 compare favorably in this pool of five, but his ISO is by far the lowest at .179.
Martinez hit .315/.358/.553 with 23 HR, 76 RBI, and 57 R. He trails Brantley in wRC+ 153 to 155, but edges him out in wOBA .391 to .389.
I think I would take Brantley with a higher batting average, higher OBP, and higher wRC+ (not to mention better counting numbers with the exception of HR), but I’m pretty certain the third award is going to go to Nelson Cruz.
Cruz hit .271/.333/.525 with 40 HR, 108 RBI, and 87 R. His ISO of .254 trails only Trout at .274 and his .370 wOBA and 137 wRC+ place him a respectable 4th in each category. The HR and the RBI will sway the voters.
Who Should Win? Mike Trout
Jose Bautista
Michael Brantley
Who Will Win? Mike Trout
Jose Bautista
Nelson Cruz
DH
While Victor Martinez of the Detroit Tigers did play 35 games at 1B, making him 1B eligible in your fantasy league next year, he is also hands down the best DH in the AL and an argument could be made that he is second overall to Trout.
Martinez hit .335/.409/.565 with 32 HR, 103 RBI, and 87 R. He had a .411 wOBA and a 166 wRC+.
The Silver Slugger for DH goes to Victor Martinez.
Who Should Win? Victor Martinez
Who Will Win? Victor Martinez
These awards will be announced, along with MVP, Cy Young, ROY, etc., after the World Series concludes. Be looking for my upcoming column on the NL Silver Slugger Awards.
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