Earlier in the week I looked at the AL Silver Slugger awards. Today, I’ll be looking position by position at the NL Silver Slugger candidates, relying heavily on the advanced hitting metrics of weighted on base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+), occasionally looking at isolated power (ISO), but paying respect to the standard slash line of batting average (BA), on base percentage (OBP), and slugging percentage (SLG).
The AL column goes into detail about why I’m using these metrics, so I won’t bore those readers who are familiar with that column, but if you didn’t read it, do check out the AL analysis piece. Also, for a more detailed explanation of wOBA and wRC+, see the glossary section at Fan Graphs on the web.
Catcher
There’s an interesting three way race here between Buster Posey of the San Francisco Giants, Jonathan Lucroy of the Milwaukee Brewers, and Russell Martin of the Pittsburgh Pirates. While Posey leads the group in offensive WAR, wOBA, and wRC+, it’s not by such a large margin that other statistics shouldn’t be considered.
Martin, in just 111 games (compared to 147 for Posey and 153 for Lucroy), beat out Lucroy in both wOBA (.370 to .368) and wRC+ (140 to 133), and trailed Posey by only .001 in wOBA (.370 to .371) and just four points in wRC+ (140 to 144). But, the counting numbers obviously suffered from the reduced playing time. Martin hit 11 HR to Posey’s 22, scored 45 runs compared to Posey’s 72, and drove in 67 to Posey’s 89. So, it’s probably safe to scratch Martin off the list for serious consideration for the Silver Slugger.
When it comes down to Posey versus Lucroy, Posey takes virtually every category except OBP and runs scored. Posey has a higher offensive WAR, wOBA, wRC+, BA, and SLG, with more HR and more RBI. Here’s a comparison:
Lucroy – .301/373/.465, 13 HR, 73 R, 69 RBI, .368 wOBA, 133 wRC+
Posey – .311/.364/.490, 22 HR, 72 R, 89 RBI, .371 wOBA, 144 wRC+
The numbers, coupled with Posey’s favored status by the media, should and will produce a second Silver Slugger award for Buster Posey.
Who Should Win? Buster Posey
Who Will Win? Buster Posey
First Base
It is absolutely insane that Paul Goldschmidt of the Arizona Diamondbacks, who missed the last third of the season, ranks as highly in offensive numbers as he does. Goldschmidt is second in offensive WAR (a cumulative stat), and first in both wOBA and wRC+ (both ratio stats). But like Russell Martin at catcher, the fact Goldschmidt played only 109 games severely limits his counting numbers in comparison to candidates like Anthony Rizzo of the Chicago Cubs.
Goldschmidt finished his short season hitting .300/.396/.542 with 19 HR, 69 RBI, and 75 R. His wOBA was .402 and his wRC+ was 155.
The nod here, though, should go to the only other 1B who slugged higher than .500 and had a wRC+ higher than 140 – Anthony Rizzo.
The 25 year old Cubbie first baseman hit .286/.386/.527 with 32 HR, 78 RBI, and 89 R. Keep in mind that RBI, and R for that matter, are largely a product of opportunity. The Cubs scored the second fewest runs in the NL, so as they continue to bring up talented young players, Rizzo should see more opportunities to drive in runs and the power is definitely legit.
The advanced metrics support Rizzo as well. He led all NL 1B in offensive WAR, and was second to Goldschmidt in ISO (.240), wOBA (.397) and wRC+ (153).
Anthony Rizzo should collect his first Silver Slugger for this season.
Who Should Win? Anthony Rizzo
Who Will Win? Anthony Rizzo
Second Base
This one really isn’t close.
Only five NL 2B with over 450 PA have wRC+ over league average (100). Neil Walker of the Pittsburgh Pirates has a wRC+ of 130, outdistancing his closest competitor, David Murphy of the New York Mets, by 20 points.
And, if you prefer old school numbers, only three NL 2B hit double digit HR. Walker hit 23, 12 more than Chase Utley of the Philadelphia Phillies.
Walker hit .271/.342/.467 with 23 HR, 76 RBI, and 74 R. In addition to his position leading wRC+, he was first in offensive WAR and first in wOBA (.356)
The Silver Slugger for 2B in the NL goes to Neil Walker.
Who Should Win? Neil Walker
Who Will Win? Neil Walker
Shortstop
To me, this one also isn’t close, but it might be for the voters. Again, we have a player, in Hanley Ramirez of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who missed significant time but still rises to the top.
Ramirez led all NL SS in offensive WAR, wOBA, wRC+, OBP, and SLG (and therefore also on base plus slugging).
In 128 games, he hit .283/.369/.448 with 13 HR, 71 RBI, 64 R, and 14 SB. His 135 wRC+ is 15 ahead of Jhonny Peralta of the St. Louis Cardinals and his .362 wOBA beats Peralta by .025.
Some voters may look at Ian Desmond of the Washington Nationals with his 24 HR, 91 RBI, and 24 SB, but I can’t get past his 28.2% K% and the paltry .313 OBP.
If Starling Castro of the Chicago Cubs would learn to take a walk (6.2% BB%), I might give him some consideration as he did record a 115 wRC+, behind Peralta and Ramirez. Voters may be drawn to Castro’s .292 BA and leave at that, but I think it should be Ramirez.
Also, Ramirez has that reputation thing going for him, as this would be his third Silver Slugger.
Who Should Win? Hanley Ramirez
Who Will Win? Hanley Ramirez?
Third Base
If what you’re looking for is run creation (and after all that’s how you win games – by scoring runs), then the advanced metrics would suggest this is a two man race between Anthony Rendon of the Washington Nationals and Josh Harrison of the Pittsburgh Pirates. However, voters who look no further than counting numbers will probably tick off the check box next to Rendon without thinking twice.
Rendon, who hit in the sabermetrically perfect slot of second in the Nationals lineup, has a slight advantage in opportunity over Harrison, who often led off. With more runners on base ahead of him, Rendon drove in 83 runs to lead the position, which is certain to catch the voters’ eyes. But, surprisingly, Harrison had the higher SLG at .490 to Rendon’s .473, and Harrison’s wRC+ is 7 points higher at 137.
Let’s compare the stat lines and you be the judge:
Harrison hit .315/.347/.490 with 13 HR, 52 RBI, 77 R, and 18 SB. His wOBA was .365 and his wRC+ was 137. It’s also worth noting that Harrison split time with Pedro Alvarez at 3B and also played the OF.
Rendon hit .287/.351/.473 with 21 HR, 83 RBI, 111 R, and 17 SB. His wOBA was .361 and his wRC+ was 130.
Harrison has the higher BA, SLG, wOBA, and wRC+, while Rendon has the higher OBP and more HR, RBI and R.
Another player who might crash the party at the hot corner is Todd Frazier of the Cincinnati Reds with his 20/20 season. Frazier hit .273/.336/.459 with 29 HR, 80 RBI, 88 R, and 20 SB. His 122 wRC+ places him third at the position, while his .350 wOBA secures fourth place at the position.
In most voters’ eyes, Harrison’s .315 BA will be cancelled out by the fact he trails in all the counting numbers. It’s going to come down to Rendon and Frazier with Rendon winning the award.
Who Should Win? Anthony Rendon
Who Will Win? Anthony Rendon or Todd Frazier
Outfielders
Again, Louisville Slugger only looks at the top three outfielders and does not take into account right field, center field, left field.
We could probably have a lively debate about whether or not Andrew McCutchen of the Pittsburgh Pirates or Giancarlo Stanton of the Miami Marlins had the better year, but since there are three outfielders who receive the Silver Slugger, let’s just start off by giving one each to McCutchen and Stanton.
McCutchen and Stanton were the only two NL OF with wOBA over .400 and wRC+ over 150.
For the season, McCutchen hit .314/.410/.542 with 25 HR, 83 RBI, 89 R, and 18 SB. The Buc centerfielder led the major league with both a .412 wOBA and a 168 wRC+.
Stanton hit .288/.395/.555 with 37 HR, 105 RBI, 89 R, and 13 SB. His .403 wOBA and 159 wRC+ are second only to McCutchen for NL OF.
Then it begs the question – who gets the third trophy? Well, it depends on what you value.
Do you value batting average? I don’t place that much emphasis on it, but if you do then there are seven .300 hitting NL OF to choose from – Josh Harrison who we talked about in the 3B debate, Andrew McCutchen who already has his hardware, Corey Dickerson of the Colorado Rockies, Ben Reviere of the Philadelphia Phillies (who hit 2 HR all season), Jon Jay of the St. Louis Cardinals, and Denard Span of the Washington Nationals. I’m going to say no to all but McCutchen and Dickerson, here.
Do you value OBP? Yes. There are four NL OF with OBP higher than .380. After McCutchen and Stanton, we have Jason Werth of the Washington Nationals and Yasiel Puig of the Los Angeles Dodgers. I think we may be on to something with Puig and Werth.
What about HR or RBI? HR are valuable, but I think you know my position on RBI. It may come as a surprise to the casual fan to discover that Giancarlo Stanton was the only NL OF to hit over 30 HR. In fact, there were only 11 hitters in the big leagues this year to hit 30 or more HR.
Justin Upton of the Atlanta Braves came in second among NL OF with 29 HR. Then there is a cluster of three players with 25 – McCutchen, Marlon Byrd of the Philadelphia Phillies, and Matt Kemp of the Los Angeles Dodger. Upton and Kemp are interesting. Byrd is not.
The ancient statistic of opportunity, the RBI, filters out two players with 100 or more – Stanton and Upton.
The advanced numbers are more interesting. After McCutchen and Stanton, Corey Dickerson of the Colorado Rockies comes in third in wOBA at .399. But, much of that can be attributed to playing his home games in Coors. He hit .363 with 15 HR and 53 RBI at home, and .252 with 9 HR and 23 RBI on the road.
Puig, Werth, and Kemp show up again as numbers four, five, and six in wOBA.
In descending order of wRC+ for NL OF, we find McCutchen, Stanton, Puig, and Werth. Kemp comes in sixth behind Dickerson and his high altitude inflated numbers. Let’s compare Puig, Werth, and Kemp, while keeping in mind that Dodger Stadium is a pitchers’ park which may suppress some of Puig’s and Kemp’s power numbers.
Puig hit .296/.382/.480 with 16 HR, 69 RBI, 92 R, and 11 SB. His wOBA was .379 and his wRC+ was 147.
Werth hit .292/.394/.455 with 16 HR, 82 RBI, 85 R, and 9 SB. His wOBA was .377 and his wRC+ was 141.
Kemp hit .287/.346/.506 with 25 HR, 89 RBI, 77 R, and 8 SB. His wOBA was .369 and his wRC+ was 140.
For me, I’d give the third NL OF Silver Slugger to Puig. The voters might not take into account park factors and give it to Dickerson. Strong arguments can be made for Werth or Kemp.
Who Should Win? Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, and Yasiel Puig
Who Will Win? Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, and ?
We’ll find out definitively when the awards are announced following the World Series. In the meantime, enjoy the playoffs and remember, if your team didn’t make it in, it’s only five months to spring training.
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