Brady had more opportunities (19 vs 14), and converted them at a higher rate (57.8% vs 42.9%). However, there lies the difference. If Vanderjagt hits those kicks, not only do the Colts win the 2000 Game (although I doubt they would have gone further, as they would have gone to Tennessee next, and the 2000 Colts weren’t all that good), but Manning gets another opportunity in the 2005 Divisional game to win (and the Colts were by FAR the best team in the 2005 regular season until James Dungy’s suicide).
If Vanderjagt hits both of his kicks, Manning’s percentage goes up to 57.2% (8 out of 14). Basically, Manning did his job (put together a successful drive) at least the same rate as Brady did, but Manning’s kicker messed up while Vinatieri (or Gostkowski) never did. The other factor is that Manning has been more successful when starting the drive trailing (4/9 vs 4/10). Again, this is basically a negligible difference.
There is really no evidence that Brady has been more clutch other than the fact that Brady’s kickers have not missed a large playoff 4th quarter kick, while Manning’s have. Vanderjagt probably cost only a win in 2000, but likely cost Manning a great chance at a Super Bowl in 2005.
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