Whether you are Chris Antonetti, attempting to fill holes in the 2015 roster, someone in the Indians marketing department trying to decide which player to put on the 2015 Spring Training tickets or just a fan wondering whose jersey is going to be safe to buy, the first thing you need to know is which players will even be around for 2015. The following is a quick analysis of the situation of all 35 players on the final active roster and disabled list. Players will be broken down into groups by their probability of being on the 25 man roster next year, starting with those already signed to long term deals and ending with the least likely to be resigned free agents.
Team Control through 2017 (Signed)
The Indians most likely players to be retained through 2015 are those under long term contract. These fall into two categories; players the Indians wouldn’t want to get rid of and those they couldn’t. While any of these players could be traded, the team friendly contracts are so good that the Indians would never be able to get back equal value and the player friendly deals are going to be almost impossible to unload. The team friendly deals include Yan Gomes (signed through 2019 with two option years), Jason Kipnis (signed through 2019 with a $16.5M option), Michael Brantley (signed through 2017 with an $11M option) and Carlos Santana (signed through 2016 with a $12M option).
The two unfriendly contracts belong to the massive free agents signed in the 2012-2013 off-season. Michael Bourn is signed through 2016 with a $12M option for 2017, a guaranteed total of at least $27.5M if he were released now. Despite being the third most valuable outfielder for the Indians this year (after Brantley and Murphy), he was the highest paid by more than double and will continue to be throughout the length of his deal. Nick Swisher ended the season on the DL after double arthroscopic knee surgeries. He is also signed through 2016 with a 2017 option, but his deal is worth at least $30M with a $14M option. While there is no way possible the Indians will use that option (he needs 550 plate appearances in 2016 and has to pass a physical for it to activate, he had just 401 in 2014), he will be the most difficult player to unload prior to that time.
Team Control through 2017 (Un-Signed)
In addition to those under contract, there are quite a few young players who will still be in their arbitration years in 2017. Of those, a few the Indians are unlikely to let go of are Trevor Bauer (third year of arbitration expected in 2019), Corey Kluber, Cody Allen, Nick Hagadone, J.B. Shuck and Danny Salazar (under team control through 2018) along with Carlos Carrasco and Bryan Shaw (controlled through 2017). These players have proven themselves to the Indians that they are more than capable of producing at the Major League level and would not be traded without a large haul coming the other way. Some of these players may even be candidates for extensions this year in order to avoid arbitration, although it isn’t very likely with most of them.
Lonnie Chisenhall is also under team control through 2017, but has already been the subject of trade rumors and conjecture after his first break out season. The question remains whether or not he can continue his numbers from the first half of 2014 into 2015 or if he should be more expected to return to his 2013 numbers. There is no player on the team surrounded in as much doubt as Chisenhall as he could either sign a long term contract or be traded for parts. The Indians front office will have to use their own analysis to decide on what to do with the default option being him entering his first year of arbitration in 2015.
Rookies Austin Adams, Kyle Crockett, T.J. House, C.C. Lee, Bryan Price, Roberto Perez, Jesus Aguilar, Jose Ramirez, Zach Walters and Tyler Holt all broke in with the Tribe this year and none will enter arbitration for at least two more seasons. All these players are candidates for off-season trades as many are proven prospects at this point, but this is also a great reason to keep them around.
Team Control Through At Least 2015 & Trade Bait
Unlike the players listed above, those signed for a short term or reaching the end of their arbitration years are not as certain to be with the club next year. Some of these players, like Marc Rzepczynski (under control through 2016), David Murphy (signed through 2015 with a $7M option for 2016), Scott Atchison (extended through 2015 with a $1M option for 2016) are likely to be retained, although others in similar situations are not.
Ryan Raburn is owed $2.5M for 2015 and an extra $100K buyout if they don’t use his $3M option for 2016, but the Indians would be much better off just taking the loss. With Swisher and Bourn already taking up at bats as old and injured players, there is very little room on the 25 man roster for a player who can’t hit or field. This is a similar situation to that of Jason Giambi at the end of 2013 and the Indians still brought him back, so Raburn could very well be with the team in 2015, but they will be much better off without him.
There are also a few players who are under team control for a few years to come, but are less likely than those already listed to be retained. Justin Sellers, Zach McAllister, Chris Gimenez (under control through 2018) and Josh Tomlin (going into his second arbitration season) all proved to be less than inconsistent Major Leaguers this season. While these players could stay with the team for a long time at a very low price, there seems to be little reason for this. Each player has had a decent amount of Major League experience and all were outplayed by the talented group of rookies listed above. If they would be willing to stick around for another season in Columbus, they could be good depth options, but would be a poor waste of the 2015 MLB 25 man roster.
Possible Free Agents
It is a testament to the shrewdness of Chris Antonetti and the Indians front office that just one of the 35 players on the active roster to end the year is a true free agent. Jason Giambi is ending his single year deal and if he does not retire, the Indians certainly should not ask him to come back. While they claim to have him on the roster as a kind of player/coach, he is much more coach than player at this point and there is no way they will be able to contend as a play-off team while throwing away a 25 man roster spot on the aging slugger.
Finally, super-utility man Mike Aviles has a $3.5M option with a $250K buyout going into 2015. While it may have seemed like a sure thing the Indians would use it at the beginning of the year, Ramirez’s play on the field and at the plate, along with the advent of Francisco Lindor in 2015 may make Aviles unnecessary. There isn’t enough room for a full discussion on whether or not he should be brought back, but it will be covered in the future.
It may be a blessing or a curse that the Indians will be able to return essentially their entire squad from 2014 as it wasn’t enough for a post-season appearance this year, but it will be a solid base if Chris Antonetti and the Dolans decide they want to add the necessary pieces to contend at a legitimate level.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
