Every year, the last bullpen spot is one of the big question marks entering spring training. This year, the Pittsburgh Pirates have no shortage of weapons to choose from to fill that role, including new acquisition Eric O’Flaherty.
Known for trying to deploy two left-handed relievers whenever possible, the Pirates still seem to be one pitcher short of that quota. If they are indeed leaning towards keeping two left-handed pitchers, the best candidates to fill that role are Kyle Lobstein and Eric O’Flaherty. After battling an unfortunate amount of adversity, former first round pick Corey Luebke presents a lot of upside, but he’s being looked at more as a depth starting option right now.
Huntington told me #Pirates will "keep an open mind" on Cory Luebke. Will stretch him out to start first, then go from there.
— Matt Gajtka (GITE-kah) (@MattGajtka) February 12, 2016
The Pirates also have a multitude of right-handed options, most notably Rob Scahill, Daniel Bard, and John Holdzkom. Of that group, Holdzkom is by far the best choice given that left-handed batters fared better against him than right-handed hitters did by only a fractional difference. In that storybook 2014 season, right-handed batters hit .146/.247/.232 against the former independent league pitcher, while left-handed batters hit .159/.245/.227. I certainly wouldn’t rule out anyone in that group getting the final bullpen spot to start the season over a lefty, but O’Flaherty and Lobstein might have the inside track.
Far from outstanding in 2014 as a spot starter, Lobstein followed it up with an awful 2015 campaign. A shoulder injury in May kept him out until September. Lobstein posted a 4.34 ERA before the injury and a 10.69 ERA after returning. In April 2015, batters hit .250 against him and .324 between May and September.
Lobstein doesn’t have the overpowering fastball that relievers are more commonly known for. He also sports a sinker, slider, changeup, and curveball. The sinker has the most movement, but the changeup and curveball get the most swings and, by far, the most misses. Unfortunately, batters experienced a great deal of success against all of his pitches consistently with the exception of the slider for a time and the curveball.
Eric O’Flaherty also struggled in 2015. The main difference is that he was an incredible reliever for an extended time prior to 2015. Much like Lobstein, O’Flaherty battled a shoulder injury in 2015. Also much like Lobstein, O’Flaherty never fully recovered from the injury. From 2010-2014, he never posted an ERA over 2.50. Over those five seasons, he posted a combined ERA of 1.73. If he can prove 2015 was a fluke caused by the injury, O’Flaherty could quickly become one of the best relievers in the Pirates’ bullpen. He took the first steps towards that goal on Friday in his first bullpen of spring training.
Next up: Juan Nicasio, Wilfredo Boscan, Eric O'Flaherty and Kyle Lobstein. #Pirates pic.twitter.com/NmyF7kRLPI
— Stephen J. Nesbitt (@stephenjnesbitt) February 19, 2016
For the sake of comparison, let’s look at what impact O’Flaherty’s mechanics may have had on the disparity in his performance from 2011-2014 and 2015. The clips below are from 2011, 2012, and 2015, respectively. If O’Flaherty can recapture the form he had in 2011-2014, it’s clear he would be a tremendous asset for the Pirates in the bullpen. More importantly, it would be invaluable for him to be able to make some of the best hitters in baseball look foolish like he did in those first two clips.
There was little change in his delivery from 2011 to 2015. He dramatically falls off towards third base. It worked for him in the past, but that doesn’t make it a proper pitching technique. From the video on Twitter above, it appears O’Flaherty has cleaned that motion up a lot. It will be interesting to see if he still gets the same break on his sinker and slider pitching from a different release point.
Following Tommy John surgery in 2013, he experienced a minor drop in velocity for all of his pitches, which could be cause for concern. O’Flaherty is essentially a two-pitch pitcher with the sinker taking the bulk of the workload and the slider being a follow-up pitch. In 2011, by far his most successful season, he used the sinker 48.21% of the time, the slider 27.77%, and the fastball 20.54%. In 2015, he threw the sinker 58.83% of the time, the slider 27.32%, and the fastball 12.02%. The change in style is odd considering the four-seam fastball had the lowest batting average against of any of his pitches from 2011 to 2014. The sinker and slider also never surpassed .240 from 2011 to 2014.
Only the sinker experienced a noticeable reduction in movement in 2015 when compared with his 2011-2014 numbers. Combined with only a minor drop in velocity and a relatively consistent delivery, other factors have to be responsible for the struggles he faced in 2015. For a proper comparison, I used 2011 and 2015 to have opposite ends of the spectrum.
In 2011, he favored the fourseam fastball (34%) and sinker (47%) against left-handed batters when the batter was ahead in the count and the sinker (60%) almost exclusively against right-handed batters in the same situation. Ahead in the count or with two strikes against left-handed batters, the sinker (37% and 42%) and slider (42% and 39%) became his go-to pitches. He favored the slider when ahead against right-handed batters (44%) over the sinker (31%), but when he had two strikes on the batter, he used all three of his fourseam (24%), sinker (28%), and slider (41%).
When there were runners in scoring position, he favored the sinker (52%) and slider (30%) against left-handed batters when the batter was ahead. Against right-handed batters and behind in the count, he threw the sinker 43% of the time and the slider 35% of the time. When he was ahead in the count against left-handed batters, O’Flaherty threw the sinker 37% of the time and the slider 45% of the time. With two strikes and RISP, he favored the sinker (52%) over the slider (35%). Ahead in the count against right-handed batters with RISP, he threw the sinker 36% and the slider 45%. With two strikes, he used the slider almost exclusively with 55% of his pitches in that situation.
In 2015, he favored the sinker (60%) behind in the count against left-handed batters with the bases empty. When ahead in the count under the same circumstances, he threw the sinker 41% and the slider 47%. With two strikes, he split his pitches almost evenly, 45% sinker, 44% slider. Against right-handed batters pitching behind in the count with the bases empty, he threw the sinker 72% of the time. Ahead in the count, he threw the sinker 56% of the time, and with two strikes, he threw it 58% of the time.
With RISP, he threw the sinker 56% of the time when pitching behind in the count to left-handed batters. Ahead in the count, he threw the sinker 50% of the time and the slider 41% of the time. He threw the sinker and slider to the same percentages with two strikes. Against right-handed batters, he threw the sinker 68% of the time when behind in the count. When ahead in the count, he threw the sinker 53% of the time and the slider 33% of the time. While the usage of the slider remained the same with two strikes, he threw the sinker 6% more than when simply ahead.
O’Flaherty nearly stopped using the fourseam fastball and flipped from favoring the slider against right-handed batters to favoring the sinker against batters from both sides, with the exception of being ahead in the count against left-handed batters. In 2011, his fastball had the lowest BAA of any of his pitches at .148. Opponents hit .193 against the sinker and .167 against the slider with two strikes. In general, the fourseam had a .125 BAA, while the slider had a .212 BAA. In 2015, he almost never threw the changeup or fourseam with two strikes. The sinker had a .143 BAA with two strikes, and the slider had a .381 BAA. In any count, the fourseam had a .300 BAA. The sinker had a .330 BAA, and the slider had a .424 BAA.
Was the problem being predictable with his pitch sequence, or were the poor results caused by poor placement on the slider and fourseam fastball?
The diagrams below show the zone profiles for the fourseam fastball and slider. The data for 2011 is on the top, and that which is for 2015 is on the bottom. The data for left-handed batters is on the left, and right-handed batters is on the right. All data is from the catcher’s perspective.
Here is the fourseam fastball:
And the slider:
Looking at the profiles, it’s apparent that the slider was not suffering from location. Even with decreased movement and velocity, he was still able to throw it where he wanted it. With the fourseam, it’s highly likely the diminished use of the pitch or improper use in sequence of the pitch led to the deviation in BAA.
Eric O’Flaherty will be the clear winner for the last bullpen spot should he be able to incorporate the right sequence of pitches and regain the movement on his slider. He was once one of the best relievers in baseball, and under the right circumstances, he could be again.
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