Whose Line Is It Anyway?

When the Panthers opened up their season with 7 goals against the Flyers, it was thought that this year would mark the end of the offensive woes. As we move into mid December, it’s clear that is not the case. Through 30 games this season, the Panthers have scored one goal or less 9 times, which has been the key factor into their mediocre start. If they want to make the playoffs this year, it’s time to figure out what is keeping the Panthers from scoring goals and how it can be remedied before it’s too late.  Or Wayne Brady is gonna have to choke a bitch

Simply put, the Panthers are making far too many east-west passes between the bluelines. The neutral zone is something to get through, not play in. If you spend too much time in the neutral zone you allow the opposition time to get back and in position, making crossing the blueline with possession all but impossible. This then leads to ineffective dump-ins, as the players without the puck are left standing still and aren’t able to cross the blueline at full speed to retrieve the puck. Obviously, this makes having an effective forecheck that much more difficult. When players are not moving with speed across the blueline, combined with putting the puck into areas with low chances of retrieval (i.e. behind the net in the trapezoid where goalies can set it up for their D) makes it difficult to spend any sort of quality time in the offensive zone. Too many times the Panthers dump the puck in only to be beaten to it and unable to establish a forecheck. This makes it easy for the opposition to complete passes and quickly clear the zone.

The times they are able to gain possession in the offensive zone, they still aren’t generating enough chances, mainly being kept on the perimeter. When they are able to get shots, they are from the outside, and with three forwards stuck either behind the net or along the walls, they aren’t getting any traffic in front. This results in an easy save for the goalie and a whistle. This leads us into our next issue– line usage.

There are two possible solutions to this issue: employ the players on the current roster more effectively, or make changes to the roster to better accommodate the coaching style.

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Thomas posted a brief article last week discussing the first possible solution to this problem (Read it here). That solution is give your best players more ice time. It’s clear the rolling four lines and splitting time evenly has not be conducive to offense this season. There is simply not enough depth of talent on the current makeup of this roster to allow the freedom to play all four lines equally. We have seen this happen over the course of the last few games, and while the goals have not necessarily been there yet, the amount of sustained pressure and quality scoring opportunities have risen. Playing Barkov more allows him to get better matchups than the other teams top lines. He is able to victimize even the top players in the league to create goals, now imagine what he can do against the other team’s third pair defense and third line of forwards.

There are more ways than one to accomplish this, as well. Barkov does not necessarily have to play with the same two linemates every shift. If the concern is that Jagr is not able to increase his minutes much more, simply get him on the ice with other players. This will help production roster-wide. If Jagr needs a shift off, throw Barkov out with Trocheck, and watch the magic happen. Barkov is a special player that can create chemistry with just about anyone. His tremendously high hockey-IQ makes him easy to play with, and makes him dangerous every time he steps on the ice.

Gallant is too focused on keeping units of three forwards together. Especially with the lack of top end talent at the forward position right now, it would be more beneficial to pair certain players together and be able to interchange the third player on the line. For instance, it is clear that Barkov and Jagr have immense chemistry together, however, Huberdeau and Jagr don’t have nearly as much. On the other hand, we have seen over the last few seasons that Huberdeau and Bjugstad work well together. This move is beneficial to both players. Bjugstad is the purest shooter the Panthers have. He does not need to carry the puck and make room for himself, and instead would be content letting someone else do the dirty work to create time and space, while he slips into dead areas on the ice waiting for a pass. Huberdeau, meanwhile, has been well documented in his scoring struggles this season, but one aspect of his game has not changed. That is, he is still an elite set-up man, and since Jagr has come to Florida, Huberdeau has learned how to protect the puck more and bide his time until he can spot the open man. If Huberdeau won’t be the one to put the puck in the net a lot this year, you need to put him with someone who will, and Bjugstad is the best option.

If some players are getting more ice time, that means that others will be getting the short end of the stick. It shouldn’t be too hard to figure out who those players should be. Shawn Thornton should rarely, if ever, be in the lineup. Through 13 games he has yet to register a point, and while that isn’t his game, he’s not contributing in the areas he needs to be either. Thornton only averages 8:18 a night, but it’s not so much the amount of time he’s getting, it’s the situations in which he finds himself on the ice. Too many times down by a goal more than halfway through the 3rd period, #22 is sent over the boards. When that happens, it is a guaranteed 43 seconds (his average shift length) where a goal will not be scored for, and the chances one is scored against increases.

If Gallant is unwilling to change his tactic of rolling 4 lines then he needs to start employing more of a calculated approach to minutes and line matching. If he does not want to play Barkov more than 19 or 20 minutes a night, that’s fine, but he needs to ensure that the minutes Barkov is getting are effective. Since he is at the moment the hottest point producer on the team, and will probably end the year close to the top of the team in points, Gallant cannot afford him to have too many defensive minutes. If no one else is going to put up points, Barkov needs to be used in situations where he has the highest opportunity to score. If he is rested and the other team sends out their third or fourth line, or bottom pair defensemen, Barkov needs to get those minutes to push for a goal. As it stands, it is too easy for opposing coaches to ensure they get the right matchup against Barkov and Jagr.

The other man that can be responsible for improving the offense is Dale Tallon. If the coach is unwilling to change his approach, the GM needs to be willing to give his coach the necessary players to fit that style. Obviously, one way to do that is through a trade, which I will touch on later, however, the simplest solution is to promote from within.

The Panthers have a glut of young forwards that are not currently in the NHL. They claim to have the ultimate goal of icing a roster full of players that were drafted by the organization, and they have gone about stockpiling talented prospects to make that happen. Though it’s not a guarantee that these young players will provide offense in the NHL, it’s not like they can be much less productive than the current roster. Kyle Rau has scored 8 goals in the AHL with far less help than he would receive upon being called up. Combine that with the fact he is familiar with Nick Bjugstad and it could provide an instant spark to a line that frankly needs to produce more. Rocco Grimaldi did not put up many points during his brief stint in Florida this year, but his chance creation and ability to make plays is much higher than certain other players on the roster.

If Gallant wants to roll four lines, he needs to be given 12 forwards that are threats to score every time out on the ice. If it can’t be down through promotion, then the only other option is through a trade.

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Like every other scenario I have laid out in this article so far, though, there are again two avenues to improve the roster through a trade. The first being addition by subtraction. By cutting ties with certain unproductive players (Bolland, Thornton) for non-NHL assets in return, it opens up space for some of the young guys mentioned above on the NHL roster. But good luck trading those two.

Of course, if the concern is that these players will not produce at the NHL level or they need more development time, maybe it is time to use some of those assets in a trade to get a top 6 winger. There are so many forward prospects in the Panthers system, particularly at the center position, that not all of them realistically have a chance at cracking the NHL lineup in the near future. They have had ample time to evaluate the talent and NHL likelihood of these players, and assess which players they can make do without moving forward.

In addition to this, they also have several redundancies in skill level and role that they do not need all of them. Players like Trocheck, Grimaldi, Rau, and Hawryluk all largely play the same style of game, and are roughly the same size. By keeping all of these players, it makes the Panthers too one-dimensional. There are several teams in the league that would love to have some of the Panthers prospects in their system, as they will have roster holes to fill in the near future. This works out for everyone. The Panthers would get the top six forward they need, the prospect would get a better chance to make the NHL, and the team they are going to will get a quality asset or two.

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With the amount of talent in the Panthers system, there’s no excuse as to why a trade cannot be possible. The Panthers have a mix of expendable prospects and NHL roster players that, regardless of the market and willingness of other GMs to make a trade at this point in the season, Tallon can force their hand by making an offer they can’t refuse. This is especially true considering that most teams are looking for an NHL caliber defenseman, and the Panthers have a few to spare. The Panthers could put together any number of packages that could get just about any player that would help their team immediately, it’s just a matter of willingness by Tallon and ownership to pull the trigger on a deal.

Some of these changes have been seen in the last few games, particularly since Bjugstad has been out of the lineup. It will be interesting to see what happens when he gets healthy and whether Gallant will keep Huberdeau with Barkov and Jagr, as that line has regained their form from last season. I think it would still be more beneficial to the overall offense of the Panthers to put Huberdeau on a line with Bjugstad, though I understand the reluctance to split up that line the way they have been playing lately. It is still concerning that Gallant is putting the second line, now centered by Vincent Trocheck, against the other teams top lines. Bjugstad may be more able to handle that matchup, but it’s evident that Trocheck just can’t hang with the league’s top centers. That, combined with the fact that Ekblad still gets minimal ice time with the Barkov lines means there’s still a little more that Gallant can do with player usage to get the best results. The Panthers have been better over the last few games, but still need more if they want to make a legitimate push for the playoffs. How Gallant is willing to use his bench, particularly the top-end skill players, may be the deciding factor for this year’s Panthers.