Why Both the Yankees and Cubs Needed to Make the Chapman Trade

Aroldis Chapman is now a member of the Chicago Cubs. It had long been speculated that Chapman would be on the move at some point, as the Yankees currently sit 7.5 games back in the AL East, as well as 4.5 games out from the second wild card spot with a record of 50-48 and while this deficit may not seem too large, the Yankees have question marks all over their lineup and rotation. 39-year-old Carlos Beltran, who like Chapman is in a contract year, has been the team’s best hitter.  The rotation has failed to find consistency beyond Masahiro Tanaka. It all adds up to the Yankees -25 run differential on the season; the other three teams ahead of them in the AL East all have a run differential of +40 or better. The Chicago Cubs, on the other hand, lead the entire league in both record, 59-38, as well as run differential, at +150.

The deal that has been agreed to is as follows:

New York Yankees Receive:

1. SS Gleyber Torres
2. RHP Adam Warren
3. OF Billy Mckinney
4. OF Rashad Crawford

Chicago Cubs Receive:

1. LHP Aroldis Chapman

New York’s Side of the Deal:

For the first time since I can remember, the Bronx Bombers have decided to sell pieces from their major league roster at the trade deadline rather than make a run at a championship. GM Brian Cashman picked a great time to do so. Just about every contender in the league is in the market for relief help, and Aroldis Chapman, a rental player who will become a free agent at season’s end, just so happened to be the best one available. As a result, the Yankees were able to demand a return package that was far and away greater than the one they had to give up for Chapman in March.

The piece that was first reported to be included in the trade was Cub’s top prospect Gleyber Torres, ranked the 24^th best prospect in the entire league by MLB Pipeline and 27^th overall by Baseball America. Playing in Advanced-A ball at the young age of 19, Torres has already shown above average plate discipline against older competition. In 409 plate appearances this season, he has accumulated 98 hits and 42 walks, good for a 10.3% walk rate and a .275/.341/.433 triple slash line. Furthermore, Torres has shown the potential to develop solid tools offensively, defensively, and on the base paths. He does have 9 home runs and 19 stolen bases this season, though he has also been caught stealing 10 times. Prospects come with risk, and Torres is no exception, but there is a reason that he has been lauded as much as he has. There is no question that the Yankees have a potential star on their hands.

The Yankees will also be reunited with righty Adam Warren, who they traded to the Cubs back in December for second baseman Starlin Castro. Warren did a nice job for New York in 2015 as both a starter and a reliever, pitching in 43 games (17 starts), finishing with a 3.29 ERA to go along with rates of 7.13 K/9 and 2.67 BB/9. He has stumbled in 2016 however, posting an ERA of 5.91 and almost doubling his walk rate. Warren will turn 29 in August though, and he has a career ERA of 3.66 with a 3.92 FIP. Perhaps a return to his original team can turn his season around.

The other major prospect being moved in this deal is lefty-swinging outfielder Billy Mckinney. The former first-round draft pick was originally acquired by the Cubs alongside Addison Russel in the Jeff Samardzija deal back in 2014. After being ranked 75^th on MLB Pipeline’s top-100 list to start 2016, Mckinney fell out of Baseball America’s top-100 list at the season’s mid-point, having accumulated just a .252 batting average and .677 OPS in his second go-around at AA. Profiling as an average defensive outfielder, it is Mckinney’s bat that will need to get him to the majors. Scouts have questioned his ability to hit homeruns, but his great bat speed should produce a lot of doubles. Like Torres, he also has shown patience at the plate, accumulating 47 walks and a .355 OBP in 2016.

The final player being moved for Chapman is A-ball prospect Rashad Crawford, a 22-year old switch-hitting outfielder who was drafted out of high school back in 2012. Profiling more as organizational depth, Crawford does have 22 stolen bases, though that is less impressive when taking into account his age and experience level in comparison to the rest of the Carolina League. The Yankees will hope that Crawford can reach the majors in a bench role at some point over the course of the next few seasons.

Chicago’s Side of the Deal:

• 166 – the number of saves that Aroldis Chapman has in his 7-year career.
• 15.16 –  Chapman’s K/9 rate during that span (590 Ks in 350.1 IP).
• 2.01 and 1.93 – Chapman’s career ERA and FIP respectively.
• 0.89 – Chapman’s career WHIP.
• 105.1 – the miles-per-hour of the fastest recorded pitch thrown in Major League history, also by Aroldis Chapman.

Before criticizing Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer for giving up what they did for 2-months of a closing pitcher when their club was already 55-1 when leading heading into the 9th inning, take into account all of the previous numbers. At the age of 28, Chapman is in the prime of his career and is once again pitching at an elite level with the best velocity ever. Not only that, this season has seen the 6’4” lefty accumulate the best K/BB rate of his career. The Cubs are currently fielding the best lineup/starting rotation combo in the entire MLB. Their one weakness is in the bullpen, where the only players who can really be counted on are Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop. This is no longer the case with Chapman on board.

It is certainly fair to question the package of players given up, in the deal. Torres has vast potential, Mckinney was a first round draft pick, and Warren is less than a year removed from having the best season of his career. But look at it this way: Torres is 19 and is yet to play a game above A-ball. Mckinney has not only failed to develop homerun power, but has also managed to hit just 12 doubles this season at AA. And the Cubs just sent Warren down to AAA as a result of ineffectiveness. Furthermore, Chicago’s roster is still filled with young talent, from Kris Bryant to Addison Russel, and from Javier Baez to Willson Contreras. The Cubs’ DL and farm still contain the likes of Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora, Ian Happ, Duane Underwood, and Eloy Jimenez. This team is deep, and it is ready to win it all now.

Epstein and Hoyer went out and did exactly what every baseball fan should want their team to do; they made their club better today. Not only that, they made it the far and away favorites to win the World Series. That’s right, I said “far and away.” Games are not won on paper, but by acquiring the best available relief pitcher at this year’s trade deadline, the Cubs have come pretty darn close to building a juggernaut. Want to know what’s even scarier? Epstein and co. may not even be done adding.

Here is one more number for you: 39,366. The number of days since the Cubs last won the World Series. You’d better believe that this team has every intention of ending that drought and it’s the reason that the front office felt the need to make this trade. Even if they gave up too much talent in this deal, the Cubs have spent years accumulating the talent to make exactly this type of deal.

It will be years before we fully know how the summer’s first blockbuster truly shapes the future of the Yankees and Cubs franchises , but we are only a few months away from knowing if the Cubs made the most of it. If this group can bring a World Series trophy back to Chicago, then it will have been well worth the cost.

-Alex Vacca

Header photo courtesy of The Spokesman Review.

Statistics and standings courtesy of FanGraphs.

Trade news courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.