For those Celtics fans who stuck it out through what was an embarrassing end to the third quarter, they got a chance to see a combination that Brad Stevens has not gone to for an extended period of time since the Rajon Rondo trade. Boston went with a defensive minded lineup to begin the fourth led by Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder.
The lineup, which initially included Brandon Bass and Tyler Zeller, injected life into a Celtics team that was trailing by 28 to start the 4th. The lead was cut all the way down to 10 not even halfway through the period, suddenly giving the Celtics a chance to win the game.
Pairing Smart, Bradley and Crowder together has the potential to be one of the Celtics best lineups, and it’s not hard to see why. Each player thinks defense first, has the ability to create turnovers and get out and run. Since the Celtics offense is at its best when playing at a high pace, getting stops is a huge priority, and this lineup has the potential (with the right post player pairing) to play some lockdown defense.
However, the lineup does not come without some flaws, mainly on the offensive end. Can this lineup produce enough points over an extended period of time? If they are unable to get a couple of stops in a row, can they execute against another team’s set defense? Are there enough guys on the floor who can create shots for others?
On offense, Jae Crowder’s responsibilities are limited to spot shooting (which, based on his shooting splits, should only be coming from the corner) and cutting to the basket. While Avery Bradley went off in the fourth quarter last night, the Celtics cannot count on that on a regular basis. Marcus Smart, who looked really good while leading the unit last night, has still yet to show he is a consistent scorer and shot creator. As talented offensively as Sullinger, Olynyk and Zeller are, they rely on others to get them quality looks. A stagnant offense is the potential Achilles heel of what otherwise is a great pairing for Brad Stevens. Last night, after cutting the lead to 10, the Mavs were able to slow the defensive unit down after making a couple of tough shots, opening the lead back up to 15.
Brad Stevens has chosen to go with Evan Turner as his starting point guard over Marcus Smart, preferring to play Smart with Jameer Nelson on the second unit. However, the potential defensive prowess of a Marcus Smart-Avery Bradley backcourt is worthy of working through some growing pains. While Stevens decision to start Turner is the correct one, Smart and Bradley should still see some time together, as both factor into the Celtics future.
Let’s take a look at the cause of the duo’s struggles and assess how the Celtics can fix those problems.
Assessing the Issues of a Smart/Bradley Floor Pairing
Without Crowder, the Smart/Bradley pairing has struggled, posting a -7 plus/minus per 100 possessions. Not surprisingly, the struggle is rooted on the offensive end of the floor. Like almost every Celtics lineup pairing, when the group is able to get out and run, they look great. However, that’s not always possible, and it is important for both Smart and Bradley to learn how to succeed in the half court.
Last night, the majority of the offense generated in the 4th quarter comeback came either on the break or through Avery Bradley. Bradley carried the load, and flashed the offensive skills he is capable of when his shots are falling, as Kevin O’Connor covered today in his article about Bradley’s fourth quarter performance.
While encouraging, the same shots Bradley was making in the fourth are ones he missed throughout the game, and his struggle to become a consistent shooter so far this season makes him a risky option as a go-to-guy for any unit. This does not mean the Celtics should stop running sets for Bradley, and if his shots are falling, by all means, ride the hot hand, but Stevens must also have other options to go to in case Bradley is cold.
Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley share a couple of other things in common other than their stout defense: Both tend to settle for too many long jump shots and struggle to get to the foul line. I covered Smart’s low free throw attempt rate a couple of weeks ago after the Rondo trade and Bradley, while never being a guy who draws a lot of fouls, has not gotten to the foul line as much this year as in the past. Bradley has averaged .132 free throws per field goal attempt throughout his career (.136 last year) but has dropped down to .082 this year. Smart is at .247, an OK number, but is still well below his output at Oklahoma State by a wide margin (.648). Both have seen increases in the number of threes attempted per field goal attempt, even while neither has excelled from behind the arc.
Based on those numbers, it should come as no surprise that when Bradley and Smart are on the floor together, the Celtics attempt 7 more threes per 100 possessions than their opponents, while also attempting 13 less free throws.
When Smart and/or Bradley’s shots are falling, the pair can succeed, but without the ability to get to the basket and draw fouls, the duo will struggle to score consistently, particularly in the halfcourt.
What Can the Celtics Do Offensively with the Smart/Bradley Duo?
1. Post Marcus Smart: This idea might sound funny at first, but I’d like to see the Celtics put Smart in the low and mid post areas and throw him the ball. Smart’s size and strength are two of his biggest assets. In college, Smart excelled in the post, and Oklahoma State used him on the block frequently in comparison to most point guards. Smart has not gotten to the basket very much to begin his rookie career, and while the reasons remain unclear, posting him up against smaller guards could help him get easy looks and get to the free throw line. Giving him the ball in the low or mid post shrinks the court. He would not have to beat his man off the dribble all the way from the 3-point line, where his defender can recover or help defenders have an opportunity to step in. Rather, he can focus on making efficient moves in a smaller space, better utilizing his strength to get to the basket. With the perimeter shooting ability of the Celtics big men, Smart would have a lot of room to work. This strategy would help the Celtics get quality looks close at the basket or free throws in mismatch situations. In tonight’s game against Chicago, for example, I wouldn’t post Smart against a guy like Derrick Rose, but if he draws Aaron Brooks when both second units are on the floor, I’d go right at that matchup. The Draft Express video below shows how Smart used his post game as a weapon in college (start at 1:00).
Marcus Smart – Draft Express Scouting Report
2. Play Olynyk with Smart/Bradley: Olynyk is the Celtics most skilled offensive big man and would give a huge boost to a lineup with Smart and Bradley (and Crowder). His outside shooting spaces the floor for everyone else and despite last night’s low scoring output, Olynyk has become a consistent scorer for the last month or so. Perhaps more importantly, Olynyk has the ability to be a playmaker from the post position. In a lineup that has two guys developing their ability to create for others, it’s beneficial to have a post player on the floor who can also create, and Olynyk is a gifted passer. Running sets in which the Celtics could find Olynyk on the pick and roll would allow him to be a playmaker.
3. Continue to run: As I said before, when Smart and Bradley are creating turnovers and getting out in transition, they are dynamite. The Celtics need to emphasize pace even more than usual when this pair is on the floor together without the likes of Evan Turner or Jameer Nelson, who are better creators. The Smart/Bradley pairing’s true strength will always be with their defense, and the ability to use that defense to create offense, as they did last night.
I like the idea of adding Jae Crowder to this lineup as another guy who creates turnovers and likes to run. Tonight’s game against Chicago is a prime example of the importance of pace. If the Bulls are able to slow the game down and beat the Celtics up down low, this won’t be much of a game. Brad Stevens could look to his defensive minded lineup that had success last night to shut down Chicago and speed up the pace of the game.
The Smart/Bradley duo has its flaws, but it also has the potential to be a key pairing for the team moving forward. While there will be growing pains, playing the pair together forces both to be aggressive in creating for themselves and others, important skills the Celtics will need from both Smart and Bradley as they mature.
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