Why Lucas Duda is the Most Crucial Part of the New York Mets’ Offense in 2016

If the New York Mets had any plans of giving themselves a shot at returning to the World Series, many fans and analysts felt that re-signing Yoenis Cespedes was necessary.

After all, his impact on the lineup and how it produced last season was impossible to ignore (stats via ESPN):

Without him, what New York accomplished wouldn’t have happened. Having Cespedes back this year lengthens the lineup and makes it a lot more dangerous, but there can be an argument made that he’s not the most important piece.

For me, that honor gets bestowed upon Lucas Duda.

With other hitters like Cespedes, Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera and Travis d’Arnaud (among others), there is no longer a need for Duda to be “the man” when it comes to being a run producer. However, what he does at the plate will have a significant impact on those around him – specifically Cespedes.

When looking at Duda’s season totals from the last two years, it’s hard to see any big difference:

2014: .253/.349/.481 with 30 homers, 92 RBI, 136 wRC+ and a 3.2 fWAR

2015: .244/.352/.486 with 27 homers, 73 RBI, 133 wRC+ and a 3.1 fWAR

His RBI total was down, but we all know how anemic New York’s offense was for the first half of the year (just look at the table above), so chances to drive in runs were few and far between. Taking a glance at these stat lines would tell us he had two very similar years. Anyone who watched him on a daily basis could vouch that this was far from the truth.

There were three specific stretches in 2015 when Duda was absolutely white hot at the plate, as Michael Baron of Just Mets pointed out last fall.

— From May 21-May 30, he belted six homers and drove in 10 runs during an eight-game span.

— From July 23-August 2, he hit another nine long balls and 12 RBI in 10 games.

— During a five-game stretch toward the end of the regular season, he clubbed five homers and 15 RBI.

These three hot streaks led to the first baseman hitting 20 homers and driving in 37 runs in a span of just 23 games. This was incredibly impressive, but unfortunately, it also meant that 74 percent of his homers and 51 percent of his RBI production came in just 14 percent of regular-season games. It was the epitome of feast-or-famine for Duda, and he ended up being hungry most of the time.

Every hitter goes through peaks and valleys – that’s just the way it is. Duda is no different from any other MLB position player, but the Mets hope he can be more consistent so those valleys don’t last nearly as long as they did in 2015.

http://gty.im/490161708

Especially since he’ll be the one protecting Cespedes in the lineup most of the time.

What Cespedes did with New York after the trade deadline was jaw dropping. His .287/.337/.604 triple slash with 17 homers and 44 RBI was so incredible that some tried to argue he deserved NL MVP consideration despite just playing in 57 games. That was a battle nobody would ever win, but his value to the Mets was undeniable.

As good as he was in the regular season, his weaknesses at the plate were exposed in the playoffs, hitting .222/.232/.352 with two homers, eight RBI, one walk and 17 strikeouts in 54 at-bats. He’s never been selective at the plate (4.9 percent walk rate in ‘15, 6.1 percent in his career), but it became clear this was something he had to work on.

Former Mets catcher Mike Piazza said as much during his brief stay in camp as a special instructor (quote via Newsday):

“I hope he’s able to discipline himself and refine his strike zone, and realize that when the pitchers aren’t pitching to him, he’s got to take his walks. I think you saw that in the World Series a little bit. He just got too anxious, trying to do too much. He was just swinging, trying to hit the ball out of the stadium.”

Will Cespedes do an about-face and start walking at a Joey Votto rate (20.6 percent in ‘15)? He’ll never get to that kind of level, but if he can get a little more selective and push his walk rate closer to eight or 10 percent, then we’re in business.

Still, doubling his walk rate from one year to the next is unlikely. That’s why the production of whoever is hitting behind him – most likely Duda – becomes even more crucial. If he can be a more consistent threat throughout the entire season, pitchers will be forced to throw balls over the plate more frequently to Cespedes than they’d like. If Duda has extended periods were he’s once again an easy out, there will be no reason to give Cespedes good pitches to hit. While his patience could improve, it’s inevitable that he’ll get frustrated and start chasing balls out of the zone.

But still, you’re probably thinking about how he went bananas in August and September, which only included one of Duda’s three hot streaks. That’s true, but the kind of run we watched in the second half last year will likely not be duplicated. At least, it wouldn’t be fair to expect that kind of production again.

As I said last week, the Mets will ultimately go as far as their incredible pitching staff will carry them because its their foundation. Preventing runs is great, but New York also has to score some to return to the postseason. Having Cespedes in the middle of the order makes this offense a lot better than it was without him, but he’s going to need some help.

For the Mets to be successful, every hitter must contribute. However, Duda has shown what he’s capable of accomplishing, and if he can be more consistent, it will benefit everyone. Especially the guy hitting in front of him.

Thanks for reading! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter so we can celebrate the return of baseball together: @mmusico8.