Why Scott Howson Made the Right Decision

Today Aaron Portzline reported the New York Islanders offered their entire draft for the number 2 selection. Twitter went crazy at how terrible Columbus GM Scott Howson is for turning down that offer. I’ve recently done a lot of research regarding the draft and the value of draft picks. Per that research, here are the corresponding draft pick values for that trade: Pick #2 is equal to 185 points of value; pick #4=140, pick #34=25, pick #65=14, pick #103=8, pick #125=7, pick #155=6, and pick #185=5. That is a total of 207 points of expected value. However, those later picks don’t actually hold value, they only hold value if an NHL player is found, which is about 10% of the time for rounds 3-7. The 34th pick gets you an NHL player around a quarter of the time. So essentially, this trade would be a move down for a worse player with a lower chance of being a major contributor, for a couple of low chances at an NHL player. But don’t take my word for it, below I went through every draft from 2000-2009 and looked at the players selected with the picks in the rumored Isles deal. Read through these picks and try to tell me Scott Howson made the wrong decision.

2000

#2) Dany Heatley, 751 GP, 742 PTS

for

#4) Rusty Klesla, 596 GP, 147 PTS

#34) Ruslan Zainullin, 0 GP

#65) David Morriset, 4 GP, 0 PTS

#103) Brett Nowak, 0 GP

#125) Phil Cole, 0 GP

#155) Travis Moen, 570 GP, 107 PTS

#185) Patrick Foley, 0 GP

So would you trade Heatley for Klesla and Moen? Hell no.

2001

#2) Jason Spezza, 606 GP, 616 PTS

for

#4) Stephen Weiss, 637 GP, 390 PTS

#34) Greg Watson, 0 GP

#65) Brenden Bell, 102 GP, 28 PTS

#103) Tony Virta, 8 GP, 5 PTS

#125) Jeff Lucky, 0 GP

#155) Michal Vondrka, 0 GP

#185) Mikael Svensk, 0 GP

Would you trade Spezza for Weiss and Bell? Hell no.

2002

#2) Kari Lehtonon, 344 GP, .914 Career SV%

for

#4) Joni Pitkanen, 513 GP, 273 PTS

#34) Tobias Stephan, 11 GP, .883 Career SV%

#65) Ole-Kristian Tollefsen, 163 GP, 12 PTS

#103) Joonas Vihko, 0 GP

#125) Johan Bjork, 0 GP

#155) Armands Berzins, 0GP

#185) Ryan Murphy, 0 GP

After seeing it was Lehtonen at #2, I thought this one would go in favor of the trade. But every other pick was either a bust, or barely an NHL player. Jay Bouwmeester went #3, and had he been the 2nd pick, this also would have been a hell no.

2003

#2) Eric Staal, 642 GP, 574 PTS

for

#4) Nikolai Zherdev, 421 GP, 261 PTS

#34) Mike Egener, 0 GP

#65) Branislav Fabry, 0 GP

#103) Kevin Jarman, 0 GP

#125) Konstantin Volkov, 0 GP

#155) Josh Robertson, 0 GP

#185) Francis Walthier, 9 GP, 0 PTS

In the best draft in NHL history, the trade would still be a hell no. A resounding HELL NO! from Blue Jackets fans. Wouldn’t it have been great to trade every pick in this draft to get Staal instead of Zherdev?

2004

#2) Evgeni Malkin, 427 GP, 527 PTS

for

#4) Andrew Ladd, 484 GP, 259 PTS

#34) Johan Fransson, 0 GP

#65) Mark Tobin, 0 GP

#103) Roman Tomanek, 0 GP

#125) Andrew Sarauer, 0 GP

#155) Alexander Mikhailishin, 0 GP

#185) Josh Disher, 0 GP

Obviously, no one in their right mind would ever trade Andrew Ladd for Evgeni Malkin.

2005

#2) Bobby Ryan, 332 GP, 259 PTS

for

#4) Benoit Pouliot, 257 GP, 104 PTS

#34) Ryan Stoa, 37 GP, 7 PTS

#65) Kristofer Westblom, 0 GP

#103) Mattias Ritola, 43 GP, 9 PTS

#125) Tommi Leinonen, 0 GP

#155) Mark Fayne, 139 GP, 31 PTS

#185) Kris Freidheim, 0 GP

Bobby Ryan is on the trade block right now. Think they would take an offer of Pouliot, Ritola and Fayne for him? Hell no.

2006

#2) Jordan Staal, 431 GP, 248 PTS

for

#4) Nicklas Backstrom, 365 GP, 367 PTS

#34) Michal Neuvirth, 108 GP, .909 Career SV%

#65) Brian Strait, 12 GP, 1 PT

#103) Michael Caruso, 0 GP

#125) Chad Johnson, 6 GP, .911 SV%

#155) Peter Aston, 0 GP

#185) Timo Seppanen, 0 GP

This is the first one in favor of the trade. But this year it was pretty well known that the top five players (Erik Johnson, Jordan Staal, Jonathan Toews, Nicklas Backstrom and Phil Kessel) were all superstar level talents.

2007

#2) James van Riemsdyk, 196 GP, 99 PTS

for

#4) Thomas Hickey, 0 GP

#34) Josh Godfrey, 0 GP

#65) Olivier Fortier, 0 GP

#103) Vladimir Ruzicka, 0 GP

#125) Brett Lefler, 0 GP

#155)  Jens Hellgren, 0 GP

#185) Nick Larson, 0 GP

JVR has been something of a disappointment in the NHL so far, but he’s a hell of a lot better than getting 0 combined NHL games.

2008

#2) Drew Doughty, 316 GP, 162 PTS

for

#4) Alex Pietrangelo, 177 GP, 97 PTS

#34) Jake Allen, 0 GP

#65) Jori Lehtera, 0 GP

#103) Johan Motin, 1 GP, 0 PTS

#125) Kristofer Berglund, 0 GP

#155)  Anthony Nigro, 0 GP

#185) Paul Karpowich, 0 GP

This swap is probably the closest comparable to this years draft (with Murray as Doughty, Reinhart as Pietrangelo). Doughty is definitely a slight step up, but Jake Allen is probably not enough for Los Angeles to make that trade (the rest of the picks can be considered busts already).

2009

#2) Victor Hedman, 214 GP, 69 PTS

for

#4) Evander Kane,, 213 GP, 126 PTS

#34) Carl Klingberg, 7 GP, 0 PTS

#65) Joonas Nattinen, 0 GP

#103) Kris Foucault, 0 GP

#125) Cody Sol, 0 GP

#155) Jimmy Bubnick, 0 GP

#185) Levko Koper, 0 GP

I’d probably still take Hedman over Kane, but just barely. Not 100% sure that Klingberg would be enough for me to trade Hedman for Kane.

So look back on those ten drafts. There is one draft where the trade would have made sense for the Jackets, two that would have been close, and seven that would have been the kind of trade that is looked back upon with shame. Howson made the right call.