The Cleveland Browns have made it outwardly clear their philosophy in the organization will be analytics-driven. It won’t define what the Browns do in every situation, but they’re about to be the most analytics-reliant organization in the NFL.
They put Sashi Brown and Paul DePodesta in charge of the football operations aspect of their front office. They’ll likely make changes to their current scouting staff in the transition, including the potential addition of another key decision-maker in the process.
After asking those in the industry and fleshing out my own thoughts on their organization, I’ve come away excited by what could (or could not) be the new way the Browns, and potentially more NFL teams, are run. These five areas of the Browns’ franchise set-up will be the most intriguing to track this off-season and beyond.
- Recent History
The Browns have been the model of dysfunction in the NFL for all but a few seasons since they arrived in Cleveland. The last few years (and especially the last few drafts) particularly epitomized the Browns’ struggles.
The Browns have taken a quarterback within the top 100 picks five times in the last eight drafts. None of their 2011 draft picks are on the roster. None of their 2011-2014 first-round picks are expected to be starters this season. They’ve overinvested in cornerbacks and underinvested in receivers.
Their draft struggles led to on-field struggles and front office turnover. That’s why the Browns completely changed their front office yet again. Years of futile attempts to quickly build a winning roster have forced the organization to take drastic steps.
While those who are wary of giving analytics a major say in an NFL front office have been deemed “close minded” and “old fashioned” by some, it’s hard to disagree this is taking a major leap of faith. Adding analytics into the decision-making process will always be considered a forward-thinking idea, but putting analytics at the forefront of the Browns’ future aspirations is truly a bold decision.
Ironically, the organization is turning from desperation to an analytically-focused approach. “Risky” and “analytics” aren’t often linked together, but the Browns bold decision could be the riskiest front office decision in recent NFL history. And, like when Chip Kelly arrived in Philadelphia, the entire NFL will be watching closely.
- “True Scouting” Changes, and Finding a Leader
There’s still a bit of a disconnect with some about what the Browns “analytical approach” will mean for its player evaluation. From what I know of their approach, including thoughts from a scout who worked on an analytics-focused project for Cleveland recently, it’s unique in its organization but not its method. They’re willing to bring on outside “satellite scouts” who can work away from the Browns headquarters and work off their computers rather than being brought in house and forced on the road. They it draws staunch similarities to Pro Football Focus’s approach of play-by-play charting of successful vs. failed plays.
What’s important to note about this, and a big point of emphasis as to what makes PFF truly unique and valuable, is that there IS an aspect of player evaluation in these analytics. Computers aren’t determining who wins and loses on each play; the scout watching it does.
Additionally, along with that play-by-play evaluation approach, the Browns WILL continue to have scouts who are watching film, making the rounds as area scouts, filing scouting reports and finishing all of the general tasks of an NFL scouting department. I would expect it will have a slightly smaller “true” college scouting department, as they’ll allocate more resources to analytic-focused employees than travelling, especially if they can use a contractor method for their PFF-style analytics instead of having a host of people on salary.
Finally, there’s a question still as to who will be the voice of scouting department. I don’t mean in title, but I mean in decision-making. Their analytical approach may say one thing, but who will speak to the true scouting aspect? Who will speak on the in-person aspect of scouting? Who will be the leading voice in the instinctive, intrinsic aspect of the final Big Board? Who will be the leader, potentially even devil’s advocate, for why the team should a consider a prospect who DOESN’T show up well in their analytics?
It could be Hue Jackson. It could be Director of Player Personnel Ken Kovach. It could be a person yet to be hired. Whomever it is, Cleveland needs to find this “true scouting” voice and instill a sense of confidence in him. Giving a single approach to evaluation more weight than others, even if said chosen approach focuses on analytics, can lead to bias, missed opportunities, and death-by-close mindedness in Cleveland.
- What The Analytics Will Actually Say
This is by far the most intriguing aspect of Cleveland’s front office: What will these all-knowing analytics say?
By that, I mean mostly in terms of roster building. In the NBA, there is a somewhat-agreed upon path to success: collect assets, get one star player, and use assets/money to build a “Big Three” of sorts. In the MLB, the “Moneyball” era has put the focus on OPS, get-runners-on-base offensive building with smart money/resources spent on pitching.
In the NFL, despite the much greater parity in the league compared to the NBA and MLB, there’s a far from clear way to build a team. Just look at the two Super Bowl teams. Denver spent (wisely) in free agency and via trade to finish off a Super Bowl run led by a mediocre quarterback. Carolina invested heavily in the running back, interior offensive line and linebackers despite most of the NFL believing those are three areas that don’t need the most money/time devoted to them.
And even further, especially considering the Browns situation, is where they’re roster/drafting analytics will say about WHERE to draft a quarterback. Some numbers point to drafting a quarterback in the top-five to the clearest avenue to finding a franchise quarterback. Others, including myself, believe that it’s quickly becoming wiser to consistently invest in rounds two, three and four because it’s cheaper, offers lower expectations, and you can draft more quarterbacks for a greater change of finding a “franchise quarterback” without wasting a first-round asset.
While everyone will have different opinions on the “right” way to rebuild the Browns, I would imagine that even EVP Brown and Chief Strategy Officer DePodesta don’t quite know what their research and belief system will say about how it’s best to proceed. And in the end, expecting Cleveland to have their analytical focus up, running, and focused in time for the 2016 free agency rush and, to some extent, the 2016 NFL Draft may be optimistic.
Regardless as to whether the Browns analytical focused approach is a well-oiled machine in 2016 or 2017 off-season, there are enough smart people in place for me to remain in a state of genuine curiosity and excitement in what Cleveland’s front office will become.
- Hue Jackson’s Values in an Offense
A more narrow focus into the Browns’ plans, this may be the most poignant for 2016 off-season plans and beyond. In speaking with people about Hue Jackson, he gives off a similar vibe to Bruce Arians, not in brashness but in confidence and offensive flexibility.
Asking as many scouts, agents, insiders, and others in the industry about the Browns as possible over the last few weeks, I’ve heard of all sorts of possibilities for the Browns’ future quarterbacks.
Some believed Carson Wentz fits best, considering Hue Jackson’s offense in Oakland with Carson Palmer at the helm. Others pointed to his time as Cincinnati’s OC, led by Andy Dalton and AJ McCarron. And others still leaned toward Paxton Lynch because of his decisiveness and efficiency in quicker routes (like Dalton) while also able to attack vertically (like Palmer) and still provide mobility.
But the majority felt the Browns should consider (some even said “strongly consider”) passing on a quarterback at #2 in favor of retooling the defense, partly because of the defense’s dreadful play last year, partly because none of the quarterbacks scream “top-10 talent”, and partly (and most intriguingly) because Hue Jackson can win with free agent or inherited quarterbacks.
Bringing back the Bruce Arians comparison, Jackson could feel he can win without drafting, developing, and grooming an early draft pick. For example, Hue might recommend that the front office bolster the defense at #2, sign two quarterbacks from the Drew Stanton/Chase Daniel/Matt Moore free agent crop to shore up their current QB situation, and advocate for Cardale Jones in round two or three. Or, he may feel strongly enough to push for a Sam Bradford or Ryan Fitzpatrick signing and truly kick the bucket down the road for a young quarterback.
Combining the issue of how Cleveland will value different positions in the draft based on their newest analytics with Hue Jackson’s personal (but still unknown as far as I know) priorities on offense leaves plenty of question marks as to who Cleveland will value at #2.
- Just How Long is “Long-Term”?
The final point is the one that may seem the clearest, but based on history shouldn’t be, as the Browns have been anything but a stable organization.
Even though the team is “all-in” on analytics, could owner Jim Haslam change his tune if they go 4-12 in back-to-back seasons? What if they whiff on free agency and the draft in their first year and the future looks just as bleak in 2018 as it does now?
In the league, according to a former NFL GM, the thought of “long-term” is too often thrown around. A realistic timeframe to plan long-term? Three years. A three-year focus is what he would do differently if he got another chance.
With a drastic change in organizational philosophy, three years isn’t a lot of time. Instilling a team culture, getting the right staff in place, and having a system the organization truly believes in takes time, generally longer than three years. The Browns, again based on history, might not have the luxury of figuring things out for three years.
Ideally, the Browns new approach gets more than three years to build this talent and structure-lacking franchise. It needs a total overhaul. And while the “all-in analytics” approach is bold, they’ve already brought in two respected minds in the analytics industry to head the front office and one of the best offensive coaches in the NFL to lead the team on the field.
Outside of these thoughts, I have little idea so far as to what the Browns are planning. And I believe they don’t quite know either, which is completely fine. This Browns rebuild is going to take time, but it’s about time Cleveland’s ownership showed patience and trust in it’s people rather than pressure them into unreasonable and unfounded expectations.
From the outside and as someone who’s fascinated by football management, decision-making, and evaluation dynamics, there won’t be a more unique franchise in all of professional sports for the next few years than the Cleveland Browns. I’m excited to see how it all plays out for a Cleveland fan base that deserves a team with direction and a strong vision for a bright future.
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