In 2016, along with getting to game seven of the World Series, the Indians had the second best offense in the American League. That, combined with the third best defense in the AL (behind KC and LAA), the third best starting pitching staff (behind Toronto and Boston) and fourth best bullpen (behind Houston, New York and Baltimore) should be good enough for the Tribe to stand on their laurels going into 2017, shouldn’t it?
The two players currently enjoying free agency from the previous squad, Rajai Davis and Mike Napoli, were exciting offensive players, but only worth a combined 3.0 fWAR, a number that could feasibly be matched simply by full seasons from Brandon Guyer, Abraham Almonte and Michael Brantley. The only team that was better than Cleveland in multiple categories in 2016 was Boston and if the Indians starting rotation can stay healthy all year, they should at worst be equal there. Why go to such extremes as trying to sign Edwin Encarnacion, who will likely be one of the most expensive offensive signings wherever he ends up, or to be talking with Napoli about a return?
The answer to this has many facets. First, the Indians did finish second in the AL in runs scored, but it was by over 100 runs behind Boston. The Red Sox did lose some offense this season with David Ortiz retiring and Travis Shaw leaving in a trade with Milwaukee, but that didn’t represent a 100 run difference and with a full season expected from Andrew Benintendi and probable improvements for the 24 year old MVP candidate Mookie Betts, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the Red Sox offense be even better in 2017.
The Indians, on the other hand, are set for a regression and then some. Jose Ramirez gained fame this season and became a fan favorite due to his heroics. It was incredible that he went from a .219 hitter in 2015 to .312 in 2016, but it’s the kind of thing that makes a lot more sense when you note that his BABIP rose 100 points from .232 to .333. While a .333 BABIP isn’t completely unsustainable, Ramirez’s career mark is at .298, almost identical to the league average. When he isn’t quite as lucky next year, it will definitely take away from his offense, which was the best on the team and the majority of his great value.
Tyler Naquin, who appears on nearly every depth chart as the Indians starting center fielder next year, is a great example of the influence of BABIP. From the beginning of the season through June 5th, he hit .351 and slugged .568 despite having only eight extra base hits in 31 games. His BABIP through that stretch was a completely unsustainable .479. For most hitters, anything above around .325 is completely unsustainable and the best hitters of all time haven’t consistently reached safely on more than 37% of the balls they put in play. Naquin was going to fall just due to a reversal of luck, not even considering his strike out issues.
From June 6th through the end of the season, Naquin batted .279, but his BABIP had only dropped to .389 during that period. Where the real fall in play came was in balls that weren’t put into play. During this stretch, he struck out 89 times in 247 (36%) at bats, but it got worse as the season went on, striking out 55 times in his last 141 (39%) at bats and 14 times in 23 at bats (61%) in the post-season.
It started when teams discovered Naquin had trouble with the high fastball, then it turned out to be any fastball harder than the low 90’s, then in the post-season, pretty much just any fastball. While it’s very possible he could correct this flaw in his swing during the off-season and become a serviceable hitter in the future, that is not something you can take for granted as a front office and combined with his atrocious defense, it’s hard to consider Naquin even a Major League bench player.
Along with the two young players, Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Napoli and Davis all had career years. Even Francisco Lindor likely hit a little better than he will on average for the rest of his career. While improvements should be expected from Brantley, Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez, those aren’t guarantees and chances are nearly every player will have a slight decrease in offensive production.
This leaves the Indians with a great pitching staff, a terrific defense anchored by Lindor, Kipnis and Perez up the middle and a ton of questions in the outfield, first base and DH. Guyer and Lonnie Chisenhall combine to make one slightly above league average corner outfielder and Almonte is the same in center. If Michael Brantley is fully healthy, he could be the starting left fielder and if he’s healthy enough to hit, but not field, he could DH with Santana at first. This would be an acceptable defense and offense and probably good enough to run away with another Central Division title as the other four teams all seem to be in rebuilding mode.
The problem with that line of thinking is two fold. One, it considers the ultimate goal to be a division title rather than a World Series ring and secondly, it hinges on the health of a few players, Brantley and Gomes, who have not been able to play consistently over the last few seasons. Bringing in a player like Encarnacion, even at extreme cost, would be a huge insurance policy for Brantley and a way to push the offense to the next level should he be healthy. The best part is that if Brantley were healthy and they were to add another big bat, it would likely be replacing Almonte or Chisenhall with others moving around defensively, not one of their more productive hitters.
With this in mind, the Indians search for power can extend far beyond a 1B or DH. They have been linked to Mitch Moreland (before he signed with Boston), Napoli, Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and Mark Trumbo in rumors of varying realism. A few other players that haven’t been mentioned directly, but could be great fits would be Adam Eaton and J.D. Martinez from those teams within the division selling off, Charlie Blackmon from the now outfield heavy Colorado and a more serious look at Bautista, who is expected to make at least a slight amount less than Encarnacion.
It will cost money and/or prospects, but the Indians are heavy with both right now. They have quite a few starting pitchers in the mid to lower levels who have potential and even more pitchers at the upper level who could pitch in the Majors right away, but don’t have quite the ceiling. With Lindor, Ramirez and Kipnis all under contract for years to come, the dearth of talent in the middle infield, including Yu-Cheng Chang (who was nearly traded for Jonathan Lucroy), should be available in any deal. Flush with World Series and TV money and with little to lose since they are already drafting extremely late in 2017, the Indians should be going all out to improve the offense so it can match their other skill sets. They only need one more big bat, but they do need it and they need it now.
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