Josh Beckett was a truly great pitcher in 2007. An integral piece to a championship team. Arguably the best pitcher in the American League that season. Arguably.
But Beckett’s 2008 campaign did not go over as smoothly. Beckett didn’t display the same type of dominance that he dished out in 07.’
Injury is rumored to be a reason why Beckett backtracked a tad, yet his peripherals were still very impressive to look at. So while his visit to Dr. James Andrews may have been legitimate, Beckett still showed flashes of brilliance throughout the year, to have us believe that maybe the injury effected him slightly, but not enough to completely harness his great stuff.
The Red Sox are very delicate with their personnel. Well, not when they are going to unload someone in order to gain draft pick compensation and eliminate the risk of overpaying them. But that is another topic, another story to be written.
But any time someone experiences a flash of “discomfort,” the team makes sure that the “discomfort” is diagnosed. So there is a timid approach by us observing. An unsureness as to how hurt some of these players are sometimes. Theo addresses depth in a way that many organizations should be jealous of. And the starting rotation, especially this season, is just another example of his ability and understanding of how important it is to have players who can step in when another goes down. Imperative to have over a 162 game season.
Anyway, to the numbers…
Josh Beckett posted a very impressive 8.88 K/9. And added an outstanding 5.06 K/BB, which qualified for 2nd in the AL. Those numbers should translate into a better adjusted ERA (115), one would think. Even more so when we add in the fact that the Red Sox have a very capable defense backing him up on balls in play.
But just ask AJ Burnett (ERA+ 105). That doesn’t always work out the way it should.
115 is good. Josh Beckett had a good season in 2008. Perhaps even a slightly underrated one, as many will downplay what it really meant when comparing it to 2007. Something stands out though. That line drive % of Beckett’s. It jumped 10% from 2007-2008, and it makes a lot of sense after actually watching his starts during the season.
One could just tell that hitters were making more solid contact off of Beckett than in the previous year. Balls were rocketing off the bat more often. The walks weren’t anywhere to be found, unlike in 2006. And Beckett was still racking up K’s at a great pace. Regardless of that, hitters were hitting the balls harder. Location would be the best assumption of why the K’s and BB’s didn’t translate into a better ERA+ as they probably should have. His fastballs didn’t appear to be hitting their spots as often as they needed to be, plain and simple (observational analysis there, feel free to interject with some actual data).
Which leads me to something else; the amount of fastballs thrown by the Red Sox ace. In 2006, 69% of Beckett’s arsenal consisted of fastballs. In 2007, that number went down to 63%, thankfully. But in 2008, the percentage increased, back up to 66%. Seems like it shouldn’t matter much, and some of it would probably be do to his suspected injury/discomfort. But I have to say that I feel more comfortable with the 63%. Maybe that is just me though. Of course, maybe that is because the 63% worked a little better, and I saw that work better.
Beckett did give up more home runs per nine innings. .93 to be exact (15th best in the AL). But that number is well below his disappointing first season in Boston, and that number isn’t difficult for 7 player of Beckett’s caliber, with Beckett’s stuff, to overcome. Especially since Josh allows very few runners to reach base to begin with.
I fully expect Josh Beckett’s K’s and BB’s to be roughly what they were in 2008 and 2009 in the upcoming season. And if the health is there for Beckett, those numbers along with a solid defense backing him up, will allow that ERA to come down. Or allow that ERA+ to go up. Whichever one wants to glance at.
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