If the Big 12 Conference doesn’t get what it asked for on its Christmas List—a title game without adding any extra teams—then it will have no choice to expand and once again initiate the college football realignment dominos. With some potential suitors in Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, and UCF (and possibly even USF), the Big 12 would then look to the AAC for a quick plug-and-fit, right?
Short-term answer: No.
Long-term answer: It has no other choice.
Awkward transition, I know, but take a moment to run down memory lane and picture the old family car that your parents put 250,000 miles on before trading it in or hauling it to the junk yard.
Dad wanted to hold on to the old clunker for as long as possible in a gasping attempt at pinching more pennies. In reality, the frequent repairs that come with high mileage vehicles and the decreasing fuel economy was causing him to lose money. He knew getting a much newer car was inevitable, just not something he was looking forward to (admit it: you hate car buying as much as you hate public speaking). But he was determined to ride with the old until the old would no longer ride.
That’s Big 12 expansion in a nutshell.
Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby keeps saying “no, no, no” to expanding back to 12 teams (proving that fifth-grade math is still important in college athletics). Monday, a day after his conference co-champions Baylor and TCU were left out of the inaugural FBS playoff – with TCU dropping from No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings to No. 6 after a 55-3 beating of Iowa State – Bowlsby reiterated to reporters at the IMG Intercollegiate Athletics Forum in New York City that the Big 12 would not add two members just to have a conference championship game. That would be a “poor decision.”
If you scratch the surface, it’s easy to see Bowlsby’s point: Why expand by two and dilute the money bag? The 10 Big 12 schools receive roughly $20 million from the conference’s Tier-1 TV contract (ESPN and FOX networks). Two more kids at the table means momma’s got buy more food, and momma’s always been stingy.
The Big 12 spent $415,000 on its “One True Champion” mantra implemented last summer. “One True Champion” became “Two True-Co-Champions” Sunday afternoon when the Ohio State Buckeyes slipped into the playoff upon demolishing Wisconsin 59-0, scaring away the Badgers’ coach in the process. SB Nation’s Kansas State blog, “Bring On The Cats,” estimated that the Big 12 was denied at least $14 million extra cash for its playoff “snub.”
Would a Big 12 title game have changed the league’s fortune? A Big Ten title game obviously changed the Buckeyes’.
If Ohio State loses last Saturday, or wins unimpressively, I’m probably not writing this article. Baylor would have been the No. 4 team playing Alabama in New Orleans. But it did win. It won big. Proving again what we all thought: a season-ending championship game, while risky with upset potential for the playoff contending team(s), gives Power Five teams on the cusp of making the Football Four and extra shot at impressing the committee.
It’s clear that Bowlsby needs a new car; his old clunker is losing him more money than he actually realizes. He’s just not quite ready to let go.
The analogy makes sense, right?
With the ACC signing a grant-of-rights TV contract, Bowlsby can’t pillage the two teams, Clemson and Florida State, rumored as Big 12 expansion candidates back in 2011. No one is leaving the financially secure SEC or Big Ten, even if the Big 12 pointed a gun at their head.
That leaves the Big 12 with the Group of Five conferences as sole expansion territory. And there’s no need for me to explain why the American Athletic Conference (not the Mountain West) is the best Group of Five league ripe for picking – just look at a map. Boise, Idaho? Sorry, but the boys in blue should have placed their school in California or Texas before they decided to be really good at football.
Still, Bowlsby just said, again, that he isn’t expanding anytime soon. He’s not necessarily lying, but I’ll assume and make an “ass out of you and me” by saying that he’s waiting to hear back from the NCAA on whether his petition to have the conference championship game rules deregulated comes to fruition.
Here’s the thing: even if the NCAA gives the Big 12 the go-ahead to play a title game with 10 members, what’s the point of a championship game in football with a round-robin conference schedule?
Hypothetical: 12-0 Texas (9-0 Big 12) loses to 10-2 TCU (7-2) in the Big 12 title game. Texas is left out of the playoff for going 9-1 in conference and playing the exact same conference slate in the regular season as the Horned Frogs.
Ten teams, nine conference games, one title game doesn’t add up. Besides, the other Power Five conferences that have moved along with the times (even the ancient, gray haired Big Ten finally evolved) are probably against the Big 12 finding the easy way out, when they were forced to expand to gain the lucrative conference championship game.
The Big 12’s current situation is fluid and moving faster by the day. AAC fans, I’m 99.9 percent sure the Big 12 isn’t nabbing your favorite team this off-season. Sorry, let me rephrase that: all AAC fans with the exception of UCF, Cincinnati, and South Florida fans don’t need to worry about the Big 12 bombing your conference just yet.
Let the dust settle, and see what the NCAA says before building your defenses.
Why am I not 100 percent sure? I don’t want to be carried off by the pitchfork carrying AAC fanatics in the slight chance I’m wrong.
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