Coming into last season, Angels fans didn’t know what to expect from the teams’ starting rotation. Garrett Richards was finally going to get a full season as a starter, but would there be growing pains? Jered Weaver had lost even more velocity on his fastball, how was that going to translate? Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs were traded for in the offseason. Santiago didn’t have a bad past, but had done just as much relieving as starting. Skaggs hadn’t pitched a full season of Major League Baseball, was he damaged goods thanks to the tweaks in Arizona? C.J. Wilson is the team’s own version of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Which one would they get? The last thing anyone wanted to think about was whether or not the team would need to depend on a 27-year old pitcher who had started exactly one game at the Major League level prior to 2014.
Then Matt Shoemaker went and shocked the world. All he did was go 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA across 27 appearances (20 starts) and finish second in the Rookie of the Year voting. Not a bad opening act for man who went undrafted out of college and signed as an amateur free agent in 2008 and then spent the next five years toiling in the minors with average-at-best numbers. So coming into 2015, at least with regards to Matt Shoemaker, there wasn’t much worrying to be done. He had, in essence, proved himself.
Turns out, eh, not so much. Shoemaker is currently getting the crap kicked out of him this year to the tune of a 3-4 record and a 6.29 ERA. His FIP isn’t much better at 5.81, but his xFIP thinks much more highly of him with a 3.92 mark. So what gives?
I asked my fellow authors here at MWAH if there was something different in his delivery. Something that would give away why he has been Joe Blanton reincarnate this season. The Answer: nothing glaring. Turns out, everything he is doing this year, mechanics-wise, is lining up with last year. No one can see if there’s a tell, if he’s opening up too soon, if his release points are different, nothing. OK, back to the drawing board.
What about velocity? Everyone has seen how Jered Weaver has had to compensate for his declining velocity, and although Shoemaker isn’t throwing that slow, maybe this is a thing for him as well. Maybe.
If there is an egregious drop then that could be something that our token bearded pitcher is having trouble working around. Well, he has seen a drop in velocity, but not enough to be overly concerned. Shoemaker has lost roughly 1.5 MPH on nearly all of his pitches. That drops his average fastball down to 89 MPH, but with it, the speed differential is still about the same as it was last year. And the speed differential is what makes his secondary pitches like his splitter so good. the difference between his fastball and splitter last year: 6.7 MPH. This year: 6.4. Damn. Nothing there.
What about the movement of his pitches? That has to be it, right? Hes simply getting less movement (i.e. drop, cut, run, whatever) on his pitches. Well, the one pitch that defines him is his splitter, and he’s actually getting more drop this year than he was last year, averaging 4.7 inches of vertical movement compared to 4.1 from last year. OK, fine, Shoemaker. So then what is the issue? Are you just not a good pitcher? Was last year a mirage? What is different?
Location!
Here is the heat map for Shoemaker’s 2014 season showing the percentage that he was in each location of the zone. Cue the picture, Mr. Bubbles:
Shoemaker lived down in the zone last year. A lot. And that helped contribute to his groundball-rate of 41.2%. It is very difficult to live on pitches low in the zone, and Shoemaker exploited that fact very well last year by getting ahead early towards the middle of the zone and finishing off hitters low in the zone.
Fast forward to 2015, and Mr. Bubbles is ready with the next picture.
Thank you, Mr. Bubbles.
Oh, oh my. That’s a whole lot of living in the middle, and it is reflected in his batted ball numbers as is groundball-rate has dropped 10 points this season to 31.3%. This means more line drives, more fly balls and a preposterous HR/FB rate of 21%.
Now, this is why xFIP likes Shoemaker. xFIP normalizes things like HR/FB rates down to 10.5%. a HR/FB rate of 21% is ridiculous, so, maybe there will be some regression to the mean in Shoemaker’s favor. Maybe. But, therein lies the problem with statistics that are based on expectation. Expectations are not always met, and they are not the proper tool to use when forecasting a pitcher’s future when none of us actually can see into the future. But, don’t worry, I am working on that.
Everyone wants to love Matt Shoemaker, and everyone wants him to do well. He’s the Angels’ very own everyman. He comes to work, isn’t flashy, does his job and goes home. But results are what matter the most, and currently, Shoemaker is not helping this team. I can’t pinpoint the reason why Shoemaker is now living in the middle of the strikezone instead of filling up all parts of it like he did last year because there is nothing to suggest that he is doing anything different from last year. But whatever it is, he needs to figure it out and figure it out quick. Nick Tropeano has already made a cameo appearance once this season, and Andrew Heaney is carving up the PCL with a 5-0 record, a 3.02 ERA and a 2.73 FIP.
Shoemaker has options, so the Angels can send him down without exposing him to waivers and allow him to figure himself out without hurting the club. But the team is standing by their man right now, for some reason. And with each ineffective start, the question becomes less “What is wrong with Matt Shoemaker?” and more “Why is he still being run out there every fifth day?”
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