The Pittsburgh Pirates have Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, and Nick Kingham right on the doorstep of being major league ready, but what other pitching prospects could make an impact at some point in 2016?
The Pittsburgh Pirates will head to Bradenton in just over a month with the biggest questions on their roster revolving around the starting rotation. With the departures of J.A. Happ to Toronto, Charlie Morton to Philadelphia, and A.J. Burnett to a very well-earned apparent retirement, the Pirates have had a lot of depth to fill, and they have to rely heavily upon off-season acquisitions and pitching prospects, including two likely to be in a place to contribute late in 2016.
General Manager Neal Huntington dealt Neil Walker to the Mets in exchange for Jon Niese, who had found himself without a spot in the rotation at the end of last season. Both players were becoming obsolete in the only organizations they had ever known. Niese will likely be the number three starter, a fact that should concern Pirates fans. He will need to do some work to be effective in that role, as co-editor Jason Rollison pointed out earlier this week.
The rotation is rounded out by Jeff Locke, who has never been able to be effective for a full season, and Ryan Vogelsong, the reclamation project with only two quality years in his career. Locke may find himself being the other left-handed reliever in the bullpen at some point this season, while Vogelsong will be a surprise if he can just keep his ERA under 4.00 and eat some innings. Both starters should be motivated to perform exceptionally well or risk losing their position to one of the Pirates young pitching prospects in the middle of summer.
Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, and Nick Kingham have all been highly touted prospects considered to soon be ready to contribute to the major league rotation, but they are merely the first wave of the Pirates deep pitching depth spread throughout the organization. Chad Kuhl and Trevor Williams, along with Steven Brault, comprise the second wave of pitchers with the potential to make the leap to the next level at some point. While Brault is a bit behind the other two in terms of development and will likely not be ready until 2017, Williams and Kuhl are definitely candidates to be September call-ups.
After losing pitching development guru Jim Benedict to the Miami Marlins, the Pirates acquired Trevor Williams from Miami the next day in exchange for Richard Mitchell. The move seemed odd given that Williams was a top five prospect in the Marlins organization according to MLB as recently as 2014, while Mitchell was a 20-year-old project that had yet to make it past rookie ball. Only later was it discovered that the unbalanced trade was made as compensation to the Pirates for the loss of Benedict.
Williams split time between Double-A Jacksonville and Triple-A New Orleans in 2015 and pitched to the tune of a 2.89 ERA. After his late season promotion to Triple-A, Williams posted a significantly better ERA of 2.57 in 14 innings compared to the 4.00 ERA he held over 117 innings. His walk rate was lower in Double-A (2.8 compared to 4.5 inTtriple-A), but his strikeout rate climbed to an uncharacteristically-high 8.4. Following the trade, Williams was lights out pitching for the Glendale Desert Dogs. Over seven-and-a-third innings, he allowed one run and five hits while striking out five and not allowing a walk. He finished by posting a 1.23 ERA in the Arizona Fall League in the Pirates organization.
Williams projects as a back of the rotation starter, but he could increase his standing in the organization if he, along with Ray Searage and company, can fix one glaring problem. From all the way back in high school, he has had a habit of dropping the ball behind his back too far as part of his delivery.
The poor habit helps batters from both sides pick up his pitch, but it could especially pose a problem for left-handed batters at the next level. In 2013, he was able to pitch effectively against right-handed batters in Single-A, as they posted a mere .172 batting average against him. Left-handers batted a glaring .282 against Williams. In 2014, right-handers batted .288 against him, while left-handers batted .281. In 2015, he saw the numbers drop slightly, but it was still disconcerting: right-handers batters batted .272 and left-handers batted .275.
The Arizona State product has managed to have a great deal of success without having his pitches considered overly impressive. Baseball America reports him as a cerebral pitcher, which bodes well for his ability to overcome the ups and downs of a career as a major league pitcher, especially if he is ever forced to transition to the bullpen as a middle reliever. He has shown great control and quality command, especially as he has moved up to face tougher competition, which has led to an ability to induce ground balls and keep the ball in the park. He has refined a curveball that has gone from average to good. With the greater part of another season before any real chance at a big league appearance, he should be able to refine it a little more. Every video showing the curveball shows his ability to really bury it in the strike zone and deceive batters. He also has a mid-90s four-seam fastball, a changeup that is regarded as at least an average pitch, a slider, and a two-seam fastball.
The biggest knock against his stat line are his unimpressive strikeout numbers. Williams has a high knee lift in his delivery reminiscent of Randy Johnson, allowing him to be deceptive in his timing to the plate. He is quick to the plate given the video from his time at Arizona State below. He has traditionally pitched to quality catchers, which bodes well for his time at Indianapolis with Elias Diaz behind the plate. 38 percent of base runners were thrown out in 2014 by Diaz in time split between High-A and Double-A.
If Trevor Williams is open and able to adjust his mechanics slightly to hide the ball on his delivery a little more, he should be able to speed up his delivery to the plate even more. He shouldn’t lose much, if any, speed on his fastball, while maintaining the control and command that gives him the potential to be a quality pitcher. I believe his strikeout numbers would rise a little, while reducing opposing batting averages and already low walk numbers. His groundball rate could also see a slight rise, which will only be helped by an organization that likes to employ the shift. I could definitely see him raising his projection from a fringe back-end starter or middle reliever out of the bullpen to a durable middle of the rotation starter with a great attitude.
Chad Kuhl, ninth round pick by the Pirates out of the University of Delaware in the 2013 draft, is another pitcher to watch this season with the potential for a September call-up. Kuhl has quickly established himself as the best pitcher in the organization not named Glasnow or Taillon, with some experts even going so far as to say he may be better than either one.
In his 2014 campaign at Bradenton, he posted a record of 13-5, the most wins in the organization, and finished sixth in ERA at 3.46, which was higher than the 2.11 ERA he posted in his first professional year with the Jamestown Jammers. He features a devastating sinker that tops out in the mid-90s, along with a slider that breaks more like a slurve at times and a changeup. He has a very repeatable delivery, at times looking almost as if he is pitching in batting practice. The results, however, are far better than batting practice numbers. Over a complete season at Double-A Altoona in 2015, he returned to his 2013 form by posting a 2.48 ERA and limited home runs and walks while holding opposing batters to a .236 average and maintaining consistency in his strikeout rate with 6.0.
As the video shows, he tends to try to keep the ball down in the zone to induce the strikeout without a true swing and miss pitch. The video also shows his ability to paint the corners with incredible command, despite leaving the ball up in the zone.
Here’s another example of the devastating vertical movement his pitches have.
It will be interesting as he likely transitions to Triple-A Indianapolis to start 2016 how opposing batters handle pitches left up in the zone and whether they lay off of those low pitches with two strikes. He may have to become craftier mixing up his pitch selection to find ways to get batters to swing at his pitches in order to remain successful. Unlike Williams, Kuhl’s delivery doesn’t lend itself to being made more deceptive. It’s a very repeatable delivery perfect for consistency in the windup and the stretch for a pitcher that struggles to get batters to swing and miss. Looking back at that second video, Kuhl will get major leaguers to swing at that pitch on occasion, but many times batters will be able to lay off of that. That’s the sinker he is so well known for, which almost has a slurve break at first on the lateral movement. If he can maintain the consistency in his delivery and remain able to mix up his pitches, his slurve and sinker should form a good duo for keeping hitters off balance and continuing to induce ground balls at a high rate.
Kuhl has also been able to keep base runners off balance too. 50 percent of base-runners were caught stealing in 22 attempts in 2014. Of the five runners that attempted to steal off of him in 2013 at Bradenton, all five were caught. He also saw his BABIP drop the last two months of the 2015 season to .190 and .176, respectively, which could have been coincidental or an adjustment that could carry over into 2016.
Kuhl should be able to overcome the adversity Triple-A could pose for him this season with excellent control, command, and composure. Those three C’s will be the key to whether Chad Kuhl, once regarded as simply having an outside chance at being a back of the rotation starter, can truly become a middle of the rotation or even front-line starter.
Both Williams and Kuhl are not on the 40-man roster, which is currently full. That shouldn’t be a concern now or a problem later if the Pirates decide to add either or both to the roster with September in mind. However, it is something to keep in mind depending on how they’re performing at Indianapolis as the season moves along. Luckily Pirates’ fans won’t have to wait until September or later to see Williams or Kuhl. Both have been extended non-roster invites to spring training, so keep an eye out for them there.
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