Indy had a 78% chance to win the game before the 3rd and 11 pass to Collie with 10:51 to play. After the missed field goal, their win probability had dropped to 47%. That’s a massive drop in two plays. After the Saints’ touchdown, they had just a 13% chance to win. After the pick 6, their win percentage dropped from 23% to 2%. In other words, 3rd and 4th down on the first drive of fourth quarter affected the outcome more than the pick six did. That feels about right.
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