When: Saturday, Oct. 25, 11am CT
Where: Camp Randall Stadium; Madison, WI
TV: BTN
Radio: Badger Sports Network
All-Time Series: First Meeting
Wisconsin gets its first crack at the two newcomers to the Big Ten in the next two weeks, and up first is rolling out the welcome mat to the Maryland Terrapins. These two teams have never met before in their history; so don’t expect a lot of tension in this game.
That doesn’t mean this game lacks intrigue though. In fact, this game has a lot on the line for both teams. For the Badgers, it’s all about launching themselves forward given the schedule that lies ahead. For the Terps, it’s all about showing they are a true force to be dealt with in the Big Ten.
So, who wins and why? Let’s break it all down for you. Don’t forget to take a look at our deeper research in to the Terps defense and offense.
Position Breakdown:
Wisconsin Pass Offense vs. Maryland Pass Defense:
UW Passing Stats: 846 yards, 7 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 141 yards per game, 11.4 yards per catch
UMD Pass D Stats: 1,752 yards, 10 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 250.3 yards per game, 11.9 yards per catch
Maryland has a massive advantage in playing the pass game while the Badgers on offense. The stats say its the better of the two parts of the game for the Terps, and when you have a pick-six threat like Will Likely on your side it’s easy to have that advantage.
Likely is one of the two big stars in the Maryland defensive backfield, and is joined by safety Sean Davis to form a great 1-2 punch of play on the outside and stout defense in the middle of the field. That duo should not only worry the Badgers, it should tell fans that Wisconsin is going to have more trouble than usual in the pass game.
If the Badgers can get deep on the opposite side of Likely that would be huge, but that’s asking a lot from a team who has just one wide receiver threat.
Advantage: Maryland
Wisconsin Rushing Offense vs. Maryland Rushing Defense:
UW Rushing Stats: 2,058 yards, 20 touchdowns, 7.4 yards per carry, 343.0 yards per game
UMD Rush D Stats: 1,388 yards, 10 rushing touchdowns, 4.3 yards per carry, 198.3 yards per game
As much as Maryland has the advantage against any semblance of a pass game from Wisconsin, the reverse is true concerning the run game. Simply put, Maryland’s run defense has been downright awful (104th nationally), while the Badgers have one of the best pure rushing attacks in the country (2nd nationally).
Melvin Gordon, Corey Clement and maybe even Dare Ogunbowale have to be licking their chops at seeing a porous defensive line going up against its mammoth and athletic offensive line. If Wisconsin doesn’t go over the 400-yard mark on the ground as a team I would be shocked.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Maryland Pass Offense vs. Wisconsin Pass Defense:
UMD Pass Stats: 1,762 yards, 13 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 251.7 yards per game, 13.1 yards per catch
UW Pass D Stats: 1,015 yards, 5 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 169.2 yards per game, 13.7 yards per catch
Much has been made of Sojourn Shelton’s struggles and his ability to turn things around down the stretch for Wisconsin. Well, we’ll all find out together on Saturday because there will be no hiding from the Terps wide receiver group.
Led by Stefon Diggs and Deon Long, the Maryland pass offense has weapons galore. It’s less about the Terps pass catchers, as it is about the guy doing the passing — quarterback C.J. Brown.
While Brown has been up and down this season, Maryland is always capable of the big play. That fear makes this battle a push heading in to the game. UW’s secondary is good enough to hold Maryland down, but the Terps are also good enough to burn UW if they aren’t sharp every down.
Advantage: Push
Maryland Rush Offense vs. Wisconsin Rush Defense:
UMD Rushing Stats: 1,054 yards, 13 touchdowns, 4.1 yards per carry, 150.6 yards per game
UW Rush D Stats: 701 yards, 7 touchdowns, 3.3 yards per carry, 116.8 yards per game
Aaron Bailey came in to the game last week and made a quick and loud impact. That has to be the first thing addressed when looking at Maryland during the bye week, because Brown is a much more dynamic and experienced rushing quarterback that Bailey was.
That said, the ground game starts and ends with how well Brown is doing. If he’s doing well it benefits the rest of the ground game, if not the Terps offense tends to stall.
Wisconsin’s been very stout against the run game overall, but has had issues in Big Ten play. They’re just 8th against the run in two conference games, but I’ll take the overall picture over just two games (and really it’s only the Northwestern game that killed UW’s average).
Look for UW to control the line of scrimmage and to allow its linebackers and Michael Caputo to do some damage against what is likely to be an edge rushing game.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Staff Predictions:
Andy (4-2 season record) – Wisconsin 37, Maryland 20
The Badgers have an opportunity to do to Maryland what Ohio State did to it, mainly put up 50-plus points and make it a blowout based on the ground game. However, I think the Terps come in and surprise a bit by being far more competitive than some Badger fans give them credit for. I also see a bit of a struggle with the two-quarterback system. I’d love to be proved wrong and see a Badger blowout, but I don’t see it happening.
Prognostications:
– Sojourn Shelton gets an INT: Wisconsin needs Shelton to show up in a big way this week because of the multiple weapons at wide receiver. He can’t hide on the opposite side from a great wide receiver because there are two of them on the field at all times for the Terps. That said, it’s clear Shelton knows he’s struggling and he’s prideful enough to have figured it out over the bye week. Look for him to be aggressive and it result in a pick of Brown.
– The two-quarterback system doesn’t work: We were told UW was going two-quarterback before the Illinois game, and unless we missed something Tanner McEvoy got all of one series on offense. Offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig has publicly said there will be more for each quarterback to do going forward thanks to reworking the offense over the bye week. However, I’ve seen two-quarterback systems happen at UW before and it just simply doesn’t work. Look for UW to win because of its ground game. Also look for the QB job to be won by one or the other on Saturday.
– Corey Clement gets more carries than Gordon: Considering the 17-point difference in the score it may seem like that means Gordon will see the majority of carries. However, I see Gordon scoring three touchdowns and going for 175 yards by early in the third quarter. That means a huge role for Clement the rest of the way. He’ll end up with 20 to 22 carries and that will just edge what Gordon gets before coming out of the game.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
