After a bye week, the Badgers get back on the field hoping to build off a confident performance in the second half against Western Illinois. This week it will be all about putting together a complete four-quarter game for the first time this season.
Do that and Wisconsin will walk away with a good win on its resume. However, it won’t be as easy as some think — just ask Indiana what the Falcons’ offense can do. The story of this game may be just how good the Badgers’ defensive backfield really is.
Expect a tough test on the defensive side of the ball for the Badgers, but also look for Wisconsin to also attempt to be it’s old self with a power run game to counteract a team that likes to head north of 100 plays on offense.
As long as Wisconsin controls the tempo of this game it will win…(sounds a lot more like we’re talking basketball, right)
Position Breakdown:
Wisconsin Pass Offense vs. Bowling Green Pass Offense:
UW Passing Stats: 339 yards, 4 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 169.5 yards per game, 10.6 avg. per catch
BGSU Pass D Stats: 1,247 yards, 7 touchdowns, 1 interception, 152.6 yards per game, 8.3 avg. per catch
Earlier this week we showed you the opposition research on the Bowling Green defense, and the numbers show a team who is struggling mightily to stop anything the opposition wants to do on offense. Wisconsin’s pass game found a bit of a grove after early struggles against LSU and the first half against Western Illinois.
Believe it or not, this week may actually be less of a test than Western Illinois was in the pass game. Wisconsin’s wide receivers should have a huge height and weight advantage and we all saw how well they used that same advantage last week. The question is, just how much the Badgers will need to use the passing game.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Wisconsin Rushing Offense vs. Western Illinois Rushing Defense:
UW Rushing Stats: 435 yards, 4 touchdowns, 5.58 yards per carry
BGSU Rush D Stats: 471 yards, 8 touchdowns, 4.2 yards per carry
If Wisconsin wants to win this game and do so without getting in to a track meet, it will be all about this part of the game. Earlier this week we gave you the sneak peak in to just how outmatched the Falcons are against the Badgers offensive line (think 30-plus pound advantage across the line).
Add in Melvin Gordon needing to really get things going, and Corey Clement needing to prove last season wasn’t all about the competition he was playing against. Simply put, the Badgers run game needs this game more than anyone else in the country really.
It will get a semi-test from the Falcons though, as this is the “best” (and I use that term loosely) part of the defense to date. The key will be making sure that linebacker Gabe Martin is neutralized. He’s second on the team in tackles and is one of the best playmakers this team has. Contain his ability to affect the game and Wisconsin should do just fine.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Bowling Green Pass Offense vs. Wisconsin Pass Defense:
BGSU Pass Stats: 974 yards, 5 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 324.7 yards per game, 10.1 yards per catch
UW Pass D Stats: 347 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 173.5 yards per game, 15.7 yards per catch
Wisconsin’s secondary has been good outside of two bad miscues against LSU. It’s those two deep passes that have the numbers completely inflated, after all the Badgers did only give up 108 yards through the air against Western Illinois.
The question is, can the secondary be as assignment sure as it will need to be against an offense that spreads the ball out and thrives on making explosive plays a habit. Bowling Green’s offense was supposed to take a hit with Matt Johnson out for the season, but his replacement at quarterback, James Knapke, has done well in the last two weeks.
Freshman wide receiver Roger Lewis is a major weapon for this team and could be one of the toughest wide receivers the Badgers face all season. He’s not the biggest guy in the world (6-0, 197 pounds), but he’s lightning quick and strong for his size. His battles with Sojourn Shelton and Darius Hillary will be very interesting to watch on the field.
I’d like to think the Badgers have the talent advantage here, but they simply haven’t faced an offense like this all season long. It may be that the Badgers bottle up the Falcons, but on paper it’s hard to argue the BGSU passing game isn’t better than UW’s pass defense right now.
Advantage: Bowling Green
Bowling Green Rush Offense vs. Wisconsin Rush Defense:
BGSU Rushing Stats: 580 yards, 9 touchdowns, 5.2 yards per carry
UW Rush D Stats: 180 yards, 1 touchdown, 2.3 yards per carry
Bowling Green runs only as a way to keep a defense that is likely playing nickel honest, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t an effective part of the gameplan. Running back Travis Greene gets 20 attempts per game and he’s already racked up four touchdowns on the ground. He also averages over five yards a carry. So, the Badgers can’t sleep on the Falcons’ run game.
Wisconsin has been surprisingly good against the run even in the face of missing two of it’s best defensive lineman in the opener. Konrad Zagzebski is back to full strength and should bolster a run defense that was impressive against Western Illinois and for most of the game against LSU too.
Greene may be a capable back, but Wisconsin’s history as a run-stopping defense is a deep and good one. I’d take the UW linebackers over anything Bowling Green puts on the field offensively in the run game.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Staff Predictions:
Andy (1-1 season record) – Wisconsin 55, Bowling Green 17
Wisconsin accomplished its goal in Week 2, by finding an offensive identity that isn’t just running the ball down a teams throat. However, this is a much more potent Bowling Green offensive attack and Wisconsin’s defense is going to get a big test against an offensive style it won’t see a lot of this season. I fully expect the Badgers to attempt to slow this game down on offense so it can limit the amount of time, and thus plays, Bowling Green can run. Wisconsin gets a big win here and carries some big time momentum.
Prognostications:
– Tanner McEvoy passes for 300 yards, rushes for 75: The Bowling Green pass defense isn’t exactly anything to write home about, and after predicting at least two touchdown passes for McEvoy in Week 2, I’m going to keep betting that he continues to show improvement. In fact, I think this is going to be the game where we see exactly why the Badgers brass had faith he’d be the right guy to lead this team. He started to show his dual-threat capabilities in a big way during the second half against Western Illinois and given the bad BGSU defense he’ll face this week it’s not hard to see him having big plays in both the pass game and run game. Look for a really good stat line from McEvoy on Saturday afternoon.
– Bowling Green will be held under 100 yards rushing: This prognostication is all about a feeling for me. I expect the Badgers to be up big early, and that means Bowling Green having to go to the air even more than they typically do. I also expect Wisconsin to bottle up the run game like they’ve done all season long. It all adds up to a frustrated BGSU run game and a frustrated Travis Greene.
– Melvin Gordon Goes for 200 yards: Gordon and the Badgers offense have been a bit frustrated over the first two weeks of the season, and Week 2 was especially so with the Leathernecks daring the Badgers to beat them in the pass game (didn’t exactly work out well obviously). You can bet Gordon is as close to 100 percent as he can be following a hip flexor injury in Week 1, and that means he’s likely to be running with a purpose on Saturday. Bowling Green’s defense is also no match for Wisconsin’s offensive line, so look for there to be many opportunities for big gainers from Gordon.
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