Wisconsin fans have arrived en masse, grills are likely going already somewhere in the Lone Star state and that means one thing — Badger football is upon us.
Each week we’ll break down the battles that will happen on the field, give you our staff predictions and also look at some statistical prognostications.
So, with this being week one, it’s time to go big or go home. Let’s get to the breakdown, shall we?
Position Breakdown:
Wisconsin Run Offense vs. LSU Run Defense:
LSU gave up an average of 143.2 yards per game last season, but the middle of that defensive line is off to the NFL, so there’s potential for this group to take awhile to gel. Besides, they are going up against one of the best offensive line groups in the country. As for UW…consider this for a moment: Over the last three years, the Badgers rank third nationally in rushing yards per attempt at 5.7, fourth in rushing touchdowns with 121 and seventh overall in rushing at 251.1 yards per game — leading the Big Ten in all three categories.
Sure, LSU is a good defensive team, but it struggled against some mediocre teams in the run game last season — allowing the most rushing yards to Mississippi State — and also allowing Auburn, Arkansas, Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia to run for over 175 yards as a team.
Wisconsin features one of the best 1-2 punches in the country with Gordon and Clement, but this will be Clement’s biggest test to date by far. Overall, there’s a lot more potential for UW to be successful than not.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Wisconsin Pass Offense vs. LSU Pass Defense:
Throw last season’s non-numbers out of the window for Wisconsin, as there is a new starting QB and a bunch of new faces in at wide receiver. So, relying on last season’s numbers isn’t going to be much help. If camp was any indication, McEvoy and this group have some good chemistry.
However, they are also going up against one of the best secondary groups they’ll face all season long. LSU features three of four DB’s who earned All-SEC honors in the preseason. Oh, and 2nd string safety Jalen Mills even earned LOTT Impact Award watch list honors.
LSU is deep and good all over the secondary, and they may have the best cornerback duo in the nation with sophomore Rashard Robinson and Tre’Davious White.
It will be interesting to see how the newer faces like Reggie Love and George Rushing handle the task on the outside, because they’ll need to win one-on-one battles to get open. It’s possible, but not easy that’s for sure.
Advantage: LSU
LSU Run Offense vs. Wisconsin Run Defense:
No Jeremy Hill for LSU…no problem. Even though the Tigers lost Hill to the NFL, they’ll just replace him with the No. 1 player in the 2014 class, Leonard Fournette. So far, so good for the freshman, but don’t expect him to be the guy on the field when LSU’s offense takes its first snaps. That duty likely goes to senior Kenny Hill, who had 319 yards and seven touchdowns on just 68 carries last season.
LSU also has an offensive line like few in the country, and it may be just as good as Wisconsin’s in terms of talent. The difference is that there are some unsettled spots along the line.
As for Wisconsin, there are two new starters along the defensive line and it will be interesting to see how the move of Warren Herring to defensive end works. UW is more athletic, but can it hold up against a powerful offensive line? It’s the biggest question in this game for me, and one that may not have a great answer. UW needs to use it’s speed to its advantage, but that’s easier said than done.
Advantage: LSU
LSU Pass Offense vs. Wisconsin Pass Defense:
It may be easy to think Wisconsin has an advantage thanks to a starting quarterback with very little in the way of experience, but that would be dismissing two huge factors — the offensive line and wide receivers.
LSU’s main weapon in the pass game is its ability to give him time thanks to a veteran offensive line.
Luckily for UW, 5-star freshman wide receiver Malachi Dupree won’t be playing in this one because of a sprained ankle. He made the two-deep and appeared to have been one of the most explosive players in LSU’s fall camp.
The biggest matchup is going to be Quantavius Leslie versus Sojourn Shelton, as the Badgers are likely to leave their corners on more of an island in hopes of freeing up Michael Caputo to be the playmaker in the run game from the secondary.
While this is a close call because of that talent at wide receiver and the pass blocking of the offensive line, UW gets a slight edge because of the talent in its secondary. Shelton is the most underrated corner in the Big Ten in my opinion and Michael Caputo the same at safety. Add in Darius Hillary who seems to have finally let it all go and become a lockdown corner of his own, and UW has the horses to keep up with LSU’s pass game.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Wisconsin Special Teams vs. LSU Special Teams
UW needs more out of punter Drew Meyer, who averaged just 38.6 yards per punt in his second year as the starting punter. He’s a good directional kicker and had 17 of his 53 punts inside the 20-yard line.
Kicking will also be key in this game, and Wisconsin will put freshman Rafael Gaglianone out there to the wolves. He has a massive leg, great accuracy and could be a huge weapon for UW throughout his career. Let’s see it happen in a game though.
UW’s kick and punt return games feature Kenzel Doe, who has taken both a kick and punt back for touchdowns already in his career and is always a danger to return one. He also has gotten smarter about taking chances in the punt return game. His decision making with be key in this matchup.
As for LSU, they will have a returning kicker (Colby Delahoussaye) and punter (Jamie Keehn) who were pretty good themselves. Delahoussaye was 13-of-14 on field goals, but seriously lacked deep kicking ability, as he never attempted a field goal of longer than 49 yards. Keehn averaged 41 yards per punt, a respectable average indeed.
The real question will be in the return game, where the Tigers need to replace Odell Beckham, Jr. in both punt and kick returns. It’s that fact that gives UW the overall advantage, and it is a very tough call to make because of the experience at kicker for LSU.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Staff Predictions:
Andy: Wisconsin 34, LSU 31
This isn’t a homer pick, but a realization that these two teams are very close in their makeup. Both are going to be playing multiple quarterbacks (most likely) and both have huge questions to answer up front on defense and on the edges on offense. While there are a bunch of 5-star and 4-star guys on LSU’s side, Wisconsin has shown plenty of talent in camp itself. In the end, it comes down to a field goal and from what I’ve seen of Rafael Gaglianone I’m confident he makes just about anything from 45 yards and in…something we couldn’t say last year.
Jay: LSU 28, Wisconsin 24
It pains me to type that, but I see the Badgers losing a close one here before returning the favor back in Green Bay down the road. It’s so hard to pick in the first week and from what we’ve seen from both camps, it’s definitely going to be a toss-up. Let’s hope I’m wrong.
Prognostications:
– Melvin Gordon goes for 175 yards and two touchdowns
Wisconsin needs the run game to work if it is going to win this game, because the LSU secondary is one of the best in the country from what I’ve seen of the returning players and the talent of the two-deep. Gordon gets his Heisman Trophy and College Football Playoff campaigns off to a great start with 175 yards and two touchdowns. That total would be huge, considering last season the Tigers’ defense only allowed six opposing TEAMS to go for more than 175 yards, let alone a single running back. LSU’s D only allowed four teams to have two or more touchdowns on the ground. So, Gordon going off like that would be hugely helpful.
– Sojourn Shelton gets an interception
Its funny how little Shelton’s name is brought up in Big Ten circles, especially when you look at what he did as a freshman. He earns a bit more respect and some accolades in helping to shut down a pretty good LSU wide receiver corp. I also believe he will bait Anthony Jennings in to a bad throw or two and take advantage of one of them with an INT.
– Kenzel Doe will lead UW in receptions and yards
It’s strange to think of Doe as a senior, especially since he was my very first interview of a Wisconsin player during his very first spring game way back in 2011. Yet, he’s the senior leader of an improving wide receiver group. He’ll get the start against LSU and I think you’ll see him surprise a lot of Tigers DBs with his speed and strength. There isn’t a WR on Wisconsin that is stronger than the diminutive Doe, and he’ll use it to his advantage and be McEvoy’s go-to guy.
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