Wisconsin is looking to bounce back after another in a long list of moments missed over the past five years. Luckily, a return to the friendly confines of Camp Randall Stadium and an FCS opponent await a Badger team with plenty to prove.
The Leathernecks are coming off an impressive 45-6 victory over Valparaiso, but the reality is we’re talking about a team with 16 returning starters from a 4-8 season in 2013.
Saturday will be an interesting test given all that’s happened to the roster and in the media over the past week. In fact, one could say this is more about Wisconsin getting through the issues that popped up against LSU than the final score.
Position Breakdown:
Wisconsin Pass Offense vs. Western Illinois Pass Offense:
UW Passing Stats: 50 yards, 0 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 6.2 avg. per catch
WIU Pass D Stats: 174 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception, 8.3 avg. per catch
Don’t pay attention to either set of numbers in this one, as the two teams played vastly different opponents last week. Wisconsin had a brutal time against a very good LSU pass rush and secondary. However, chemistry was there between Alex Erickson and Tanner McEvoy and that needs to continue improving in this game.
All four members of the Leathernecks defensive backfield are seniors, and that means experience versus a lot of inexperience in Wisconsin’s wide receivers. It will be the key matchup in the pass game, but look for Reggie Love and some of the other youngsters to begin to showcase the talent the coaching staff has been talking about.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Wisconsin Rushing Offense vs. Western Illinois Rushing Defense:
UW Rushing Stats: 268 yards, 3 touchdowns, 6.9 yards per carry
WIU Rush D Stats: 103 yards, 1 touchdown, 2.9 yards per carry
This will be strength versus strength, as UW’s experienced and good offensive line takes on an experienced and good Western Illinois defensive line. The Leathernecks’ defensive line features three juniors and a senior, one of which (Kris Harley) is a transfer from Virginia Tech.
However, handling the Valpo running game is a vastly different animal than facing a pair of running backs that combined for over 2,100 yards last season and features a back looking for redemption after just 16 carries last season and one of the best run-blocking offensive line in the country.
You can bet Melvin Gordon is going to be running with a chip on his shoulder, so will Clement after his lackluster performance against LSU.
Advantage: Wisconsin
Western Illinois Pass Offense vs. Wisconsin Pass Defense:
WIU Pass Stats: 320 yards, 4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 16 yards per catch
UW Pass D Stats: 239 yards, 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 26.6 yards per catch
Don’t let the numbers fool you, Wisconsin didn’t play that bad against the pass. In fact, the 26.6 yards per catch is a sign that LSU did some damage on a few plays. Western Illinois’ quarterback, Trenton Norvell, is starting just his second game and the jump between Valpo and Wisconsin is a big one.
The biggest help to Western Illinois is the fact that Wisconsin is going to be starting two new defensive linemen. Junior defensive end Jake Keefer and sophomore defensive tackle Arthur Goldberg are both making their first career starts. Last weekend both broke down against the run late, but held up in the pass game against a big time offensive line.
While on paper this should be advantage Wisconsin’s secondary, Western Illinois does have some weapons to deal with. Look for UW to be tested in the pass game, but pass that test with flying colors.
Advantage: Wisconsin (just barely)
Western Illinois Rush Offense vs. Wisconsin Rush Defense:
WIU Rushing Stats: 273 yards, 2 touchdowns, 7 yards per carry
UW Rush D Stats: 126 yards, 1 touchdown, 2.7 yards per carry
Again the biggest story here will be how the inexperience along the front seven shapes out against a Western Illinois offensive line that is pretty good in it’s own right. Yet, the stats and play of Wisconsin’s linebackers last weekend prove UW is capable of playing with the best of the best.
Michael Caputo was huge against the rushing game of LSU and he’ll be a massive help again this weekend. UW is far more athletic than they were a year ago as well and that will be the biggest difference maker in favor of Wisconsin
Advantage: Wisconsin
Staff Predictions:
Andy (0-1 season record) – Wisconsin 45, Western Illinois 17
The Badgers broke down against LSU in the late stages on Saturday, a lot of that was because of the loss of two major defensive linemen. Look for Wisconsin’s defensive line to want to prove it can handle a rushing attack and for the Badgers offense to get it going in the pass game too. That combination will prove victorious for Andersen and Co.
Prognostications:
– Tanner McEvoy passes for 2 touchdowns: What we saw out of McEvoy was a quarterback faltering under big time pressure last week. He won’t see that against Western Illinois and we’ll all start to see the reason why UW picked him to be the starter over Stave. Look for one to be a deep throw and another a pass inside the red zone. This will be a nice confidence boost for McEvoy on Saturday
– Chikwe Obasih will have 2 sacks or more: Wisconsin’s defensive line struggled to get a big pass rush going last weekend, but it did contain Anthony Jennings from getting out of the pocket and hurting UW that way. This week I fully expect to see Obasih unleashed in the Leathernecks backfield on multiple occasions. He’ll come up with a performance that will put offensive tackles on notice around the league.
– Wisconsin will get 3 players over 75 yards rushing: I half thought about saying UW would get three running backs over 100 yards, but that would be crazy. We all know this will be a perfect game to get some carries for either Tawain Deal or Caleb Kinlaw, and it could well happen, but they won’t get enough of an opportunity to go for 100 without breaking a long one in the second half. I also think this group will be held back a little in hopes of working on the passing game a bit more. We could also see a lot more of Tanner McEvoy on designed run plays as UW throws a few wrinkles out there for opposing defenses to think about.
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