Spring Training is meant to be a time of optimism, but it’s a little harder for third baseman Pablo Sandoval to feel that way with all the media noise surrounding him.
Moments after officially signing a five-year, $95 million contract in November of 2014, he said one of the main reasons why he chose the Boston Red Sox over his San Francisco Giants was because he wanted a new challenge.
Yes, he really said that (quote via Boston.com):
“But I want a new challenge. I made that choice to be here in Boston because I need a new challenge. The legacy they have here. To show them the fan support they have here. That’s what I wanted to make sure I made the right decision. It took me a long time but I’m happy to show the fans all the support they gave to this team. Now I want to show I came here to give them the support to go into the postseason again.”
Whether he still wants that challenge or not, he’s faced with an uphill battle in 2016, specifically in the court of public opinion.
While it seemed that Red Sox decision-makers asked him to lose weight over the winter, Sandoval said the opposite once he reported to camp. He also said he’s reduced his body fat from 23% to 17%, but his physical appearance basically looks the same, which hasn’t gone over well. A couple pictures taken at the right angle certainly helped accelerate those thoughts and strong opinions about what he did and didn’t do during the offseason.
How much does his weight actually matter, though?
Sure, he lacked mobility and quickness last season, but that version of Sandoval isn’t drastically different than the version we saw during the performance of his life in the 2012 World Series. He posted a .500/.529/1.125 triple slash, including a three-homer Game 1, en route to being named MVP.
He didn’t hit any homers during the epic seven-game Fall Classic in 2014 against the Kansas City Royals, but still produced a 1.002 OPS in 30 plate appearances, all while looking like this:
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So, the player Boston became infatuated with the month before they signed him didn’t look very different from the one who manned third base at Fenway last season. The .245/.292/.366 line with 10 homers and 47 RBI in 505 plate appearances was truly awful – especially since he earned $17 million in the process – but it’s not as if just losing weight will bring his production back to where everyone thinks it should be.
Battling his weight issues in San Francisco was likely a laborious annual exercise for the organization, but they knew their third baseman, how to handle him and what was necessary to be ready for the regular season. When Sandoval decided to leave, he left that entire support system and familiarity behind.
He dealt with a new team, new league, a different ballpark and a bunch of pitchers he hadn’t really seen on a regular basis in 2015. His struggles hitting right-handed were also much more pronounced than they had been in the past (.197/.234/.231 last year; .259/.306/.368 for his career).
The biggest thing to realize here is Sandoval is a mostly decent player that’s stepped up in big moments like the postseason. Fresh off being in the middle of another successful October title run, Red Sox Nation was under the impression that the postseason version of Kung Fu Panda was also the regular-season version.
Not so much.
In his seven years by the Bay, he posted a .294/.346/.465 line, which is very good, but not the .344/.389/.545 triple slash he’s accumulated in three different trips to the playoffs.
Expectations were unfairly high for someone who saw his OPS decline each year from 2011 (.909) to 2014 (.739) before continuing that alarming trend in 2015 (.658). Looking ahead to the upcoming season, what can the organization expect? No matter how mad Dave Dombrowski actually is about how his third baseman looks (and he definitely is), he had the right answer ready when asked about it (quote via AP):
“He’s always been a big guy. He has one of those bodies that is not a svelte body, and I’ve been around other people in that regards. Our people here, once he reported the first day, he did drills, they said he moved around great, better than he did last year at the end of the season.”
Sandoval has never had a body like Giancarlo Stanton, and there’s no reason to think he ever will. Despite entering his age-29 season, it’s not right to have expectations be set at that .909 OPS level from 2011, especially since he hasn’t come close to that in the four following seasons. However, something in the .750-.800 range is more realistic and attainable when looking at his career production.
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What he does at the plate will be important to the overall success or failure of this Red Sox team, but his fielding is actually the more important piece of the puzzle here. Sandoval hasn’t been an elite fielder during his career, but advanced metrics say he’s rarely had a negative effect…until 2015. That’s when he posted an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of -16.9.
The next closest third baseman was Brett Lawrie of the Oakland Athletics, who posted a UZR of -10.3 in about 100 less innings at the position.
Offense is important, but at a position like the hot corner, the pitching staff will greatly benefit from him returning to being serviceable. According to his trainer, Sandoval has improved his quickness and range from last season, which should help him bounce back with the glove. We’ll see how much of an improvement he’s actually made soon enough.
Will Sandoval ever get his weight under control to the point everyone thinks he should? Judging from the past, the answer to that question is probably not. But can he make everyone forget about his weight for a little while with his on-field performance? You bet he can.
After posting a -2.0 fWAR last year, just getting back to replacement-level production is a two-win improvement, which would be significant. He won’t earn any points in the media for how he looks, but we all know baseball players don’t need to be physical specimens in order to be successful. Sandoval has been a pretty good example of that.
Rebounding from a career-worst year in 2015 and continuing to deal with questions about his weight probably weren’t on the list of things Sandoval wanted to deal with in Boston, but that’s part of it now. He wanted a new challenge instead of staying comfortable in San Francisco, and he’s getting what he asked for. How his legacy plays out in Beantown is now up to how he blocks out the criticism and bounces back.
Thanks for reading! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter so we can celebrate the return of baseball together: @mmusico8.
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