Unless you’ve been living under a rock or you’ve been too enamored with the churning of the NHL rumor mill in the past 72 hours or you’ve been over-analyzing NHL draft prospect bios, you are well aware of Steve Yzerman’s difficult decision to buy-out the long-standing captain, Vincent Lecavalier.
The move, though heart-wrenching for the Tampa Bay community and the fan-base who had grown up with Vinny over the past 15 years, was the only logical conclusion, considering the new cap dropping to $64.3 million. Buying out Lecavalier removes his $7.72 million dollar cap hit for next season (which was the highest on the team). This, along with other announced transactions (re-signing Mike Angelidis to a one year, two-way contract, Keith Aulie to a one year, one-way deal) and non-transactions (non-tendering of Brendan Mikkelson and not using a second compliance buyout on Ryan Malone), means that the Lightning currently sit with a NHL-roster of 18 players at $55.14 million dollars in salary. This means that the Lightning appear to be ready to enter free-agency with roughly $9.15 million dollars in cap space.
With several roster spots to fill, we take a look at what Steve Yzerman might (and I would argue, ought) to do with the remaining cap money, both with regards to its non-roster AHL players as well as the free agent market.
Of the current 18 players on the Lightning roster, nine are forwards, seven are defensemen and two are goalies. NHL teams are mandated to have a minimum of 18 and a maximum of 23 players on the roster at any time, meaning the Lightning appear to have several spots to fill. However, with Mattias Ohlund’s injury making him unlikely to play again, the Lightning will actually need to fill six slots on the current roster. Ohlund is a candidate for retirement as injured players can’t be part of compliance buyout per the new CBA. Even if he doesn’t retire, he will be placed on IR and thus will not count on the 23-man roster. The Lightning should be set in net with Ben Bishop and Anders Lindback as easily the tallest goalie tandem in the NHL, unless the Lightning make an unlikely, big splash via trade (rumors have swirled that Ryan Miller could be had at the right price). With solid depth in the form of Vasilevsky, Helenius and Janus moving up the system, the Lightning appear to be in the best position it’s ever been, organization-wide, at goaltender.
The Bolts appear to have the biggest need on defense, with only Matt Carle, Victor Hedman, Eric Brewer, Sami Salo, Keith Aulie and Radko Gudas currently on the roster and expected to contribute this season. Typically teams carry between 7-8 defensemen on the active roster, so the Lightning have one-to-two holes to fill. Tampa Bay does have Andrej Sustr, Mark Barberio (currently an RFA but expected to be resigned) and last-year’s first round pick Slater Koekkoek in Syracuse; however it is unlikely that any of the three, save Barberio, is a major threat to contribute significant minutes with the Lightning next year. the Lightning are still likely to add at least one, if not two veteran defensemen via free agency. Let’s take a look at the likely options.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are unlikely to add a high-priced, veteran defenseman such as Ryan Whitney, Ron Hainsey or Marek Zidlicky, as the cap room that they have is very valuable. Therefore, the Lightning are likely to take a look at second-tier defensive options, or veterans looking to take a discount to play in Florida or for Yzerman’s organization.
Joe Corvo is an interesting free agent to look at. A veteran of Southeast Division play who has spent time with Carolina as well as Boston and at $2 million cap hit last year could probably be had near that mark. Among the other defensemen that Yzerman should take a hard look at are Mark Fistric (26 years old, $1.475 million cap hit last year), Grant Clitsome (27 years old, $1.250 million cap hit last year), Ryan O’Byrne (28 years old, $1.8 million cap hit last year) and Matt Walker (32 years old, $1.7 million cap hit last year). Yzerman will likely find a bargain-deal out of the above names or similar players, signing them to a two year deal at $1.75-$2.0 million per year-type contract. The last defensive slot, if the Lightning chooses to carry an additional defensemen, is likely to be filled by Sustr or Barberio, or through trade from AHL forward depth (Richard Panik and Ondrej Palat are two options.)
The Bolts currently have nine forwards on their NHL roster, which means that they have several holes to fill on the front-lines of their attack. They have addressed one of their forward needs with number three overall pick Jonathan Drouin assuming the experts are right and he is NHL ready. The Lightning are also likely to promote Tyler Johnson into a second or third line center role and Brett Connolly could be ready to fill a spot on the third line. Johnson’s deal adds a cap hit of $900,000, and Connolly’s deal counts as $1.633 million against the cap. This would leave the Lightning with $6.617 million in cap space (not counting Drouin’s cap hit if he makes the NHL roster) with one or two roster spots still left to fill. The Bolts have a fairly large hole to fill as a top six forward, preferably a center to fill Lecavalier’s void so that Johnson can man the third line. Brad Richards is no longer an option as the Rangers have elected not to use their compliance buy out on him. There have been links between the Lightning and Valtteri Filppula, but he wants a multi-year deal and looking at an increase over his current $3 million/year deal, it is unlikely he finds a home In Tampa Bay. More likely is that the Lightning will take a look at a short-term gamble on a player with some high upside such Mason Raymond (27 years old, $2.275 million cap hit last year), whom Vancouver will be unable to re-sign.
Regardless of how the dominoes fall, barring something unforeseen, it appears likely the Bolts will add around the fringes of free agency or add through trade of its AHL depth at forward, likely ending up with roughly $4.5-$5 million dollars in cap room entering the season allowing Yzerman some flexibility moving forward. And if he could continue to push Ohlund to retire into a front office role, there would be even more flexibility.
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