Heading into the last set of games in the Group Stage of the World Cup, six teams have punched their tickets into the knockout stage. Five other teams have been mathematically eliminated, which leaves 21 teams battling over the remaining 10 spots in the knockout stage. Here is a look at where all eight groups stand and the relevant scenarios in play for each team heading into the final games. For reference, see the standings up in the blog header. In the last round, both games involving teams from a group are played at the same time.
Group A
Brazil vs Cameroon
Mexico vs Croatia
4:00pm, Monday June 23
- Brazil advances with a win or draw against Cameroon
- Brazil can advance if they lose to Cameroon and Mexico defeats Croatia
- Brazil is eliminated if they lose to Cameroon and Mexico-Croatia ends in a draw based on losing the Goal Differential tiebreaker to Croatia
- Brazil is eliminated if they lose to Cameroon and Croatia beats Mexico by a margin less than Brazil’s margin of defeat (so that Brazil loses the Goal Differential or subsequent tiebreaker to Mexico)
- Mexico advances with a win or draw against Croatia
- Mexico can advance if they lose to Croatia and Brazil loses to Cameroon by a margin greater than their margin of defeat to Croatia
- Mexico is eliminated if they lose to Croatia and Brazil wins or draws
- Croatia advances with a win over Mexico
- Croatia advances with a draw against Mexico and a Brazil loss to Cameroon
- Croatia is eliminated with a draw against Mexico and a win or draw by Brazil
- Croatia is eliminated with a loss to Mexico
- Cameroon can not advance to the knockout stage
Group B
Chile vs Netherlands
Spain vs Australia
noon, Monday June 23
- The Netherlands have secured a spot in the knockout stage
- The Netherlands will win Group B with a win or draw against Chile
- The Netherlands will finish second in Group B with a loss
- Chile has secured a spot in the knockout stage
- Chile wins Group B with a win over the Netherlands
- Chile finishes second in Group B with a draw or loss
- Spain and Australia can not advance to the knockout stage
Spain becomes the third defending Champion in 4 tournaments to fail to advance (France in 2002, Italy in 2010)
This is the biggest disaster for Spain since 1588.
Group C
Colombia vs Japan
Ivory Coast vs Greece
4:00pm, Tuesday June 24
- Colombia has secured a spot in the knockout stage
- Colombia wins the group with a win or draw against Japan or a loss or draw by Ivory Coast
- Ivory Coast advances with a win against Greece
- Ivory Coast advances with a draw against Greece and a Japan loss or draw
- If Ivory Coast and Greece draw and Japan wins by 1, the Total Goals Scored tiebreaker will be used first (Currently CIV 3, JPN 1). If Total Goals Scored is equal, Ivory Coast will advance based on head-to-head victory over Japan.
- If Ivory Coast and Greece draw and Japan wins by 2 or more, Ivory Coast is eliminated.
- Ivory Coast is eliminated with a loss.
- Japan advances with a win over Colombia and a loss by Ivory Coast by 1 or 2 goals
- Japan advances with a win over Colombia by 2 or more goals and a draw between Ivory Coast and Greece
- If Japan wins by 1 goal and Ivory Coast and Greece draw, the Total Goals Scored tiebreaker will be used first (Currently CIV 3, JPN 1). If Total Goals Scored is equal or if Ivory Coast has more, Japan is eliminated.
- If Japan defeats Colombia and Greece wins by 3 or more goals, the Goal Differential tiebreaker will be used first (Currently JPN -1, GRE -3). If Goal Differential is equal, Total Goals Scored is the next tiebreaker (Currently JPN 1, GRE 0). If Total Goals Scored is also equal, a drawing of lots will determine which team advances.
- Japan is eliminated with a loss or draw
- Greece advances with a win over Ivory Coast and a Japan loss or draw
- If Greece wins by 3 or more goals and Japan wins, the Goal Differential tiebreaker will be used first (Currently JPN -1, GRE -3). If Goal Differential is equal, Total Goals Scored is the next tiebreaker (Currently JPN 1, GRE 0). If Total Goals Scored is equal, a drawing of lots will determine which team advances.
- If Greece wins by less than 3 goals and Japan wins, Greece is eliminated
- Greece is eliminated with a loss or draw
Drawing of Lots Scenario
For those interested in how the drawing of lots scenario could come about, it would require a tie for second place between Greece and Japan with equal Goal Differential and Total Goals Scored. In order to tie for second, both teams have to win their final games. Japan currently has a -1 Goal Differential, so a 1-goal win would get them to 0. Greece would then need a 3-goal win to draw even on Goal Differential. Since Total Goals Scored is the second tiebreaker and we are assuming a 3-goal win for Greece (the easiest result being 3-0) then Japan would also need to finish with 3 goals, meaning a 2-1 result against Colombia. Therefore, in order for the Drawing of Lots Scenario to occur, the following two results (or their equivalents) would need to occur:
Japan 2, Colombia 1
Greece 3, Ivory Coast 0
Group D
The Group dubbed “The Group of Champions” will likely finish with….Costa Rica (!!) at the top. Complete and utter shock.
Costa Rica vs England
Italy vs Uruguay
noon, Tuesday June 24
- Costa Rica has secured a spot in the knockout stage
- Costa Rica wins the group with a win or draw against England or a draw between Italy and Uruguay
- Italy advances to the knockout stage with a win or draw over Uruguay
- Italy is eliminated with a loss
- Uruguay advances with a win over Italy
- Uruguay is eliminated with a draw or loss
- England can not advance to the knockout stage
Group E
France vs Ecuador
Switzerland vs Honduras
4:00pm, Wednesday June 25
- France advances to the knockout stage with a win or draw against Ecuador
- France advances to the knockout stage with a loss to Ecuador by less than 4 goals
- France advances to the knockout stage with a loss by more than 3 goals if Switzerland loses or draws
- France advances to the knockout stage with a loss by more than 3 goals if Switzerland wins by less than 5 goals
- France is eliminated if they lose to Ecuador by more than 3 goals and Switzerland wins by 5 or more.
- Ecuador advances to the knockout stage with a win or draw and a loss or draw by Switzerland
- Ecuador advances to the knockout stage with a win over France and a Switzerland win if they maintain their Goal Differential advantage over Switzerland (Currently ECU 0, SUI -2).
- If Ecuador loses and Honduras defeats Switzerland, Ecuador can advance if they maintain their Goal Differential advantage over Honduras (Currently ECU 0, HON -4).
- Ecuador is eliminated with a loss and a win or draw by Switzerland
- Switzerland advances to the knockout stage with a win over Honduras and a loss or draw by Ecuador
- Switzerland advances with a win over Honduras and an Ecuador win if they overcome their deficit in Goal Differential (Currently FRA +6, ECU 0, SUI -2)
- Switzerland advances with a draw and an Ecuador loss
- If Switzerland loses by 1 and Ecuador loses by 3, a 3-way tie between Switzerland, Ecuador and Honduras will occur that will be even on Goal Differential (at -3). Total Goals Scored will be the first tiebreaker (Currently SUI 4, ECU 3, HON 1).
- If Switzerland loses by 1 and Ecuador loses by less than 3, Switzerland is eliminated
- If both games draw, Switzerland is eliminated
- If Switzerland loses by 2 or more they are eliminated
- Honduras advances with a win by 2 or more goals and an Ecuador loss if they overcome the difference in Goal Differential with Ecuador (Currently ECU 0, HON -4)
- If Ecuador wins or draws, Honduras is eliminated
- Honduras is eliminated with a win by 1, a draw or a loss
Group F
Argentina vs Nigeria
Iran vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
noon, Wednesday June 25
- Argentina has secured a spot in the knockout stage
- Argentina wins Group F with a win or draw against Nigeria
- Nigeria advances with a win or draw against Argentina or a loss or draw by Iran
- If Nigeria loses by 1 and Iran wins by 1, Nigeria advances if they maintain an advantage in Total Goals Scored (Currently NGA 1, IRN 0)
- If Nigeria loses by 1 and Iran wins by 1 and the teams are tied on Total Goals Scored, a drawing of lots will determine which team advances
- Nigeria is eliminated with a loss by more than 1 and a win by Iran or if they fail to maintain their advantage in Total Goals Scored
- Iran advances with a win by 1 and a Nigeria loss by more than 1
- Iran advances with a win by more than 1 and a Nigeria loss
- Iran advances with a win by 1 and a Nigeria loss by 1 if they can overtake Nigeria in Total Goals Scored (Currently NGA 1, IRN 0)
- Iran is eliminated with a loss or draw
- Bosnia and Herzegovina can not advance to the knockout stage
Group G
Germany vs USA
Portugal vs Ghana
noon, Thursday June 26
- Germany advances with a win or draw
- Germany advances if Ghana and Portugal draw
- Germany advances with a loss if they maintain their lead in Goal Differential over the winner of the Portugal-Ghana game (Currently GER +4, GHA -1, POR -4).
- If Germany loses and the winner of Portugal-Ghana draws even on Goal Differential, the Total Goals Scored tiebreaker will be used (Currently GER 6, GHA 3, POR 2)
- A drawing of lots could occur if Germany loses and Ghana wins and the two finish tied in Goal Differential and Total Goals Scored.
- Germany is eliminated if they lose and fail to maintain one of the aforementioned tiebreakers over Ghana or Portugal
- The United States advances with a win or draw
- The US advances if Ghana and Portugal draw
- The US advances with a loss by 1 and a Ghana win by 1 if the US maintains an advantage or stays even in Total Goals Scored (Currently USA 4, GHA 3)
- The US advances with a loss and a Portugal win if the US maintains their advantage in Goal Differential (Currently USA +1, POR -4) or if that is tied, Total Goals Scored (Currently USA 4, POR 2). If both measures are tied, a drawing of lots will occur
- The US is eliminated with a loss and a Ghana win by more than 1
- The US is eliminated with a loss by 2 and a Ghana win
- The US is eliminated if they lose and fail to maintain one of the aforementioned tiebreakers over Ghana or Portugal
- Ghana advances with a win and a US loss by 2 or more
- Ghana advances with a win by 2 or more and a US loss
- Ghana advances with a win by 1 and a US loss by 1 if they surpass the US in Total Goals Scored (Currently USA 4, GHA 3)
- Ghana advances with a win and a Germany loss if they can overtake Germany in Goal Differential (Currently GER +4, GHA -1). The second tiebreaker is Total Goals Scored (Currently GER 6, GHA 3). A drawing of lots would occur if both Goal Differential and Total Goals Scored were equal.
- Ghana is eliminated if the US and Germany draw
- Ghana is eliminated with a loss or draw
- Portugal advances with a win if they overtake the loser of Germany-USA in Goal Differential (Currently GER +4, USA +1, POR -4). If Goal Differential between Portugal and the Germany-USA loser is equal, Total Goals Scored will be used (Currently GER 6, USA 4, POR 2).
- If the US loses to Germany and is tied with Portugal in Goal Differential and Goals Scored, a drawing of lots will occur
- If Germany loses to the US and is tied with Portugal in Goal Differential and Goals Scored, Portugal is eliminated
- Portugal is eliminated if the US and Germany draw
- Portugal is eliminated with a loss or draw
Group H
Belgium vs South Korea
Russia vs Algeria
4:00pm, Thursday June 26
- Belgium has secured a spot in the knockout stage
- Belgium wins the group with a win or draw or a loss or draw by Algeria
- Algeria advances to the knockout stage with a win over Russia
- Algeria advances with a draw if South Korea loses or draws
- Algeria advances with a draw if South Korea wins by less than 3
- Algeria advances with a draw and South Korea win by 3 if they maintain their advantage in Total Goals Scored (Currently ALG 5, KOR 3)
- Algeria is eliminated with a draw and a South Korea win by 4 or more
- Algeria is eliminated with a loss
- Russia advances with a win over Algeria and a loss or draw by South Korea
- If Russia and South Korea both win, the first tiebreaker is Goal Differential (Currently RUS -1, KOR -2). The second tiebreaker is Total Goals Scored (Currently KOR 3, RUS 1)
- Russia is eliminated with a loss or draw
- South Korea advances with a win over Belgium by 3 or more if Algeria and Russia draw
- If South Korea and Russia win, the first tiebreaker is Goal Differential (Currently RUS -1, KOR -2). The second tiebreaker is Total Goals Scored (Currently KOR 3, RUS 1)
- South Korea is eliminated if Algeria beats Russia
- South Korea is eliminated with a loss or draw
KNOCKOUT STAGE
The first goal of any team entering the World Cup is just to make it through the Group Stage, but what about what lies ahead? In the knockout stage, teams are “cross-seeded” so that the first place finishers face the second place finishers. Teams from each group are placed on opposite sides of the bracket. The shorthand notation is Group Letter and Finishing Place so “A1” is the 1st place team from Group A.
The left side of the bracket contains the following matchups: A1 vs B2, C1 vs D2, E1 vs F2, G1 vs H2
The right side of the bracket contains the following matchups: B1 vs A2, D1 vs C2, F1 vs E2, H1 vs G2
If the knockout stage began right now, the bracket would look like this:
Brazil vs Chile
Colombia vs Italy
France vs Nigeria
Germany vs Algeria
Netherlands vs Mexico
Costa Rica vs Ivory Coast
Argentina vs Ecuador
Belgium vs USA
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