Big week in the FIVB World League, as one pool wrapped up competition while the others neared it. The picture of which teams will be in the finals is, ever so slowly, getting clearer.
Ordinarily in these little recaps, I've started with the top and gone down, but since it's group C that concluded their action this week, ending with the exciting and richly satisfying (spoiler alert?) revelation of which team they'd sent to the finals in Argentina, let's start there this time.
Coming into this week, Canada and the Netherlands were the only two teams left alive with the possibility of making the final round. They were both 6-2 after eight matches, but due to the rules that value a win in five sets less than a win in three or four (and, accordingly, disvalue a loss in five less than a loss in three or four), the Dutch team had the upper hand, with 19 points to Canada's 18. The difference was the Netherlands' 3-2 loss to Portugal — both of Canada's losses were in 4 sets. If I'm not terribly mistaken, they also held the head-to-head tiebreaker with Canada (split in terms of wins and losses, as well as sets {both sides had a 3-1 win}, higher point ratio).
What it boiled down to it whoever lost this week likely wouldn't make it.
In truth, it wasn't quite that simple, because there were still scenarios where either team could lose and make it, but they were probably never too likely. So it was win-and-yer-in, with the scenario of both teams winning twice favouring the Dutch. Both teams were on the road this week, with the Dutch in Finland and the Canadians in Japan.
And it was the Dutch who took to the court first. Their first match with the Finns was pretty ridiculously evenly-matched, but it did result in a victory of the Dutch side, as they came out on top (23-25, 25-23, 25-23, 25-23). Niels Klapwijk led all scorers for the Dutch with an impressive 23 kills, while Mikko Oivanen led the way for the Finns with 16. The Dutch team enjoyed tiny advantages in blocking and serving, as the linescore might suggest.
So, it was up to the Canadians to match this performance against Japan, since they by definition couldn't surpass it (a sweep and a win in four sets count the same). And match it they did, triumphing (25-11, 25-21, 23-25, 25-20). Both teams in this match had similar attacking output, as Gord Perrin led the way for Canada with Dallas Soonias hot on his heels, while for Japan Tatsuya Fukuzawa and Yusukue Ishijima led the way. The big differences came in blocking and serving, as Canada had 18 scoring blocks to just 7 for the Japanese, and led on aces four to zero.
It all came down to night two.
The second Finland/Netherlands match was one that Canadian fans and media outlets (other than me…) were enthusiastically following. The Finns took the first two sets, but the Dutch took set three. Poising for a comeback? Nope. Finland closed it out in four for (25-19, 26-24, 20-25, 25-20) final. The same leading hitters showed up as did in night one, but the difference in night two was Konstantin Shumov and his 7 scoring blocks, as many as the Dutch team had altogether.
It was really a best case scenario for Canada and their fans, since it reduced night two against Japan to a simple win-and-you're-in.
The two sides traded 25-23 sets to begin the match, and then Japan won the third, to put Canada on the brink. Canada coach Glenn Hoag didn't really change his rotation, starting the same six in set four who had started the third (he made a change between sets two and three, turning to Justin Duff at middle blocker to replace Adam Simac). That was a good choice, as Canada won the fourth to set up a race to 15. A race to 15 to see who'd make the finals in Mar del Plata. Canada win, they're in. Japan win, and the Netherlands take the spot.
Canada kept the same rotation, and so did Japan (they actually started the same six in all five sets). Unfortunately for neutrals but very fortunately for Canadian fans, there wasn't a whole lot of suspense in it. Canada took a pretty easy win, finishing off a (25-23, 23-25, 25-27, 25-18, 15-7) match, qualifying for the World League finals for the first time ever.
I'm very thrilled for the team, and I'm happy I'll have a rooting interest in the finals. You did us proud, boys.
Group C's other fixture for the week was Korea against Portugal, and the Koreans won both in four sets — scoresheet for night one and scoresheet for night two. Even with these sweeps, and even finishing just fifth of six teams in the group, the Portuguese team still surpassed expectations in this tournament, and they will not have to play the qualifier next year. That'll be Cuba and Japan (Cuba won just once in the group stage, Japan three times, everyone else but Argentina at least four, and Argentina's host-nation exemption to the finals means they won't finish bottom-two).
Group A had the beginnings of their own little intrigue this week. Brazil played their two-fer with the Bulgarians, winning both in four sets (night one, night two). These performances officially qualified Brazil for the finals, as if that was ever really in any doubt.
The Americans lost two tough matches against the Poles. The first was especially tough, as the (25-22, 19-25, 13-25, 30-28, 18-16) final meant the USA lost despite scoring more points in the match, one of the occasionally amusing (but surely not for American supporters on that night) quirks of volleyball. Poland's victory on night two was slightly more convincing, final of (25-23, 17-25, 25-21, 25-23), but they still did not outscore the Poles, as both sides had 92 total points in this match. I'm taken to understand that the third setter the Americans have used in this tournament, converted opposite hitter Cody Caldwell, had lots of troubles this weekend. He was eventually replaced by Kawika Shoji, who had performed adequately earlier in the tournament (and if that sounds like damning with faint praise, it's really not — dude is 26 and has not had a great deal of international experience).
France rounded out Group A's week by winning two from Argentina, in five sets on night one and four sets on night two. Since they've already played all ten of their matches, it puts them in the bizarre position of currently occupying second place in the group — with no chance of making the finals. Seriously, there is no scenario this week that results in France making the finals in Mar del Plata. So all in all, not a bad tourney for them at all, but it's back to the drawing board for 2014.
So in Group A, Brazil are in, and it's down to Bulgaria, Poland, and USA to see who gets the final spot. Here's the scenarios.
BULGARIA – Advance with two wins over Poland, as long as both are not five-setters (or they can be, if USA lose at least once), or a split provided that their win is in less than 5 sets.
POLAND – Advance with two wins over Bulgaria, as long as both are not five-setters (or they can be, if USA lose at least once), or a split provided that they take Bulgaria to 5 sets before losing (while winning in less than 5 themselves).
USA – They do not have especially good odds. They need to sweep Brazil, in under 5 sets both nights, and then:
Either Poland or Bulgaria sweep, but are extended to a full 5 both nights
Poland and Bulgaria split, under the circumstances described below
USA can sweep and be extended to 5 one night, and still advance provided:
Poland and Bulgaria split (under any but the below circumstance)
The following scenario:
Poland and Bulgaria split, with Poland winning in less than 5 and Bulgaria in a full 5, with the USA winning both against Brazil — one in a full 5 and the other in less than 5
favours Poland, as they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Americans. Of course, if the above happens and the Americans win in less than 5 both nights against Brazil, the Americans will be in second place outright.
The bottom line is the Americans need to sweep and get help. Any loss eliminates them from contention, as does being extended to 5 both nights.
Then over in Group B, things pretty much settled the way you'd think they would. Russia and Germany split five-setters, the Russians winning on night one and the Germans on night two, while Iran became the first team ever to sweep a road trip in their first World League, doing so in Cuba. They won in five sets the first night and in four the second, ensuring that they won't have to play the 2014 qualifiers. And might I say, mission accomplished for them. That's a huge achievement their first year in the World League, and next year, maybe with a few less butterflies in the belly, and a greater sense that they really do belong here, they might make a little more noise. Italy actually split against the Serbs, falling in four sets a night after their five-set win on night one, but they've officially qualified for the finals with this performance.
The only fixture that remains is a two-fer between Germany and Iran, and it will decide the second and final place in Group B. The scenarios are much simpler than Group A:
GERMANY – Advance with two wins over Iran, both in less than 5 sets.
RUSSIA – Advance with any other Germany/Iran outcome. They hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Germans on aggregate points (since aggregate sets is a tie, 5-5).
I'm gonna see if I can't squeeze in some direct coverage, alongside my Gstaad Grand Slam coverage. Hopefully it'll be possible with only 3 fixtures being played this week. We'll see how it goes
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