Thanks to an exciting 1-0 win in Game 3 on Friday, the Indians took a 2-1 series lead over the Cubs in the 2016 World Series. The two teams will play Games 4 and 5 at Wrigley Field on Chicago’s north side this weekend. Games 6 and 7 will then be played at Progressive Field in Cleveland, if necessary.
Needless to say, Game 4 is a crucial game in the series. The Indians have a chance to take a commanding 3-1 series lead, while the Cubs need a win to even things up at 2-2, effectively making this a best-of-three series.
Corey Kluber
This is the biggest difference between the Cubs and Indians right now. The Cubs are healthy and deep, so much so that they can start a guy like Lackey in Game 4 of the postseason series. The Indians are without Carlos Carrasco (hand), and Danny Salazar (forearm) just returned this series as a reliever, forcing them to use Kluber on three days’ rest in Game 4. He’ll start Game 7 on short rest as well, if necessary.
A well-rested Kluber thoroughly dominated the Cubs in Game 1 earlier this week, striking out nine and holding them to four hits in six scoreless innings. He only threw 88 pitches, so there was plenty of gas in the tank to keep going, but Tito admitted he pulled Kluber earlier than usual to help him be as effective as possible on short rest in Game 4.
Even after Game 1, most players on the Cubs do not have much experience against Kluber. Veterans Ben Zobrist (16 plate appearances) and Dexter Fowler (11) are the only players on Chicago’s roster who have faced the 2014 AL Cy Young winner more than six times. Combined, Cubs’ hitters own a .113/.127/.177 batting line against Kluber in 65 plate appearances. That ain’t good.
Seeing Kluber in Game 1 figures to help the Cubs in Game 4 because they’re more familiar with him now. Also, the fact he’ll be on short rest works to their advantage too. Kluber will be at something less than full strength, in theory. Of course, Kluber is outrageously good, so having seen him in Game 1 might not matter. When he’s on, he can dominate any lineup.
John Lackey
One thing to keep an eye on will be how John Lackey approaches left-handed batters, particularly against Carlos Santana.
The 2015 season represented the worst of John Lackey‘s career in terms of facing left-handed batters. He rectified that split this year, which is probably just because the balls bounced differently. But it’s also notable that the Cubs’ Game 4 starter changed his approach against lefties this season. He’s mimicking a strategy he last used in 2011, the worst year of his career. Strangely, it’s working.
This lefty problem has always been a thing for Lackey — he’s just better against righties (.309 wOBA career) than lefties (.325) because of platoon splits and also because his best secondary weapon is his slider — but last year, the problem was worse than usual. He recorded a 4.84 FIP against lefties and a 2.69 FIP against righties in 2015. It was also the year he threw the most fastballs, the fewest curves and changeups.
This year saw better numbers against lefties, finally. Lackey had a virtually platoon-free 3.83 FIP vs righties and 3.79 vs lefties, which is meaningless in a global way, but interesting because it came with a change in arsenal.
This past season, Lackey used his changeup more than he has in any other year other, save 2011. After a few years of laying off the curveball against lefties, he also upped his curveball usage back to his 2011 levels. He didn’t forgo the cutter/slider at 2011 levels, but he did step off of the pitch a bit. In a lot of ways, 2016’s approach versus lefties was most similar to 2011’s.
He’s also changed his approach on the curve some. Instead of going for called strikes in the zone with back-door curveballs (left, 2015), he’s burying the curve this year below the zone, more middle-middle (right, 2016). That may be part of why his curve added 50% more whiffs against lefties between 2015 and 2016. It looks like a slider, which Lackey throws to the back foot against lefties, but then it’s bigger and out of the zone.
It’s that combo of changes that helped the ageless Lackey smooth out his platoon issues from 2015, while also putting up the best swinging-strike and strikeout rates of his career. And in some ways, it’s great that a return to the curve is at the center: when he came into the league 14 years ago, he was known for his curve, and barely threw a slider.
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