The official WPIAL Championship Brackets will be released at 7pm tonight (you can listen live exclusively on MSA Sports). We know the 64 teams that have qualified for the postseason in the last year of the four classification era. I did a brief profile on each of the playoff teams, including some of their playoff history. Also, for full detail on where everyone ended the season, check out my WPIAL Standings Page.
In AAAA and AAA, the top 2 teams from each conference along with 2 of the 3 third place teams earn home playoff games in the first round. In AA and A, the top 2 teams from each conference earn home playoff games. After the first round, all playoff games are played at a neutral site. Teams from the same conference are not permitted to play each other in the first round. The WPIAL will attempt to avoid rematches of regular season non-conference games in the first round of the playoffs, bu there is no guarantee that they will abide by that principle, especially in the upper classifications where there are only 3 conferences (see: Upper St Clair playing North Allegheny in the first round last year).
Over time, the WPIAL Steering Committee has developed three major trends in their bracketing. First is that the defending champion generally gets the benefit of the doubt for the #1 overall seed. This came into play last year in Class A when defending champions Cardinal Wuerl North Catholic was given the #1 overall seed even though Clairton had broken the WPIAL single-season scoring record. For this year, that means that South Fayette and Clairton will likely get the top seeds in AA and A. Another trend is to use “inverted seeding” to get the bracket to better reflect the “true seed” list. This generally comes into play in Class A where two Tri-County South teams have to be seeded in the top 8. In 2012, the WPIAL used the “inverted seeding” method to place Jefferson-Morgan (2nd place in TCS) as the #4 seed in Class A and put Neshannock (who finished in a 3-way tie atop the Big Seven Conference but was 3rd place based on tiebreakers) as the #13 seed. In the “true seed” list, Neshannock would have been the #4 overall seed and Jefferson-Morgan would have been the #13 overall seed but because of the requirements for Jefferson-Morgan to get a home game, these seeds were “inverted” in the actual bracket. The inverted seeding could come into play in Class A once again this year as the WPIAL tries to place the Tri-County South teams into the bracket with consideration that no TCS team has won a playoff game since 2010 and the conference went just 2-7 in head-to-head games with the Eastern Conference this year.
Finally, the WPIAL has shown a propensity for “clumping” teams in a 3-way tie together in the bracket. This is important this year because of the 3-way tie at the top of the Northern Eight Conference between Central Catholic, Pine-Richland and North Allegheny. in 2012, there were two 3-way ties and the WPIAL “clumped” in both instances. In AAA, there was a tie for first place between Central Valley, West Allegheny, and Montour. Despite most people believing that the Parkway Conference Champion would get the #2 seed, the WPIAL gave the #2 seed in 2012 to Greater Allegheny Conference Champion Mars (who was also 7-1 but their loss was to a 6-2 Knoch team). The three Parkway teams were “clumped” together with Central Valley as the 3-seed, West Allegheny the 4-seed and Montour the 5-seed. Also in 2012, the Class A Big Seven Conference had a 3-way tie for first between Sto-Rox, Rochester and Neshannock. Because of Class A’s rule that only the top 2 teams get playoff games, Neshannock had to make a road trip. Sto-Rox was given the #2 seed with Rochester the #3 seed and Neshannock the #13 seed based on “inverted seeding” which was really the #4 overall seed. In 2013, there was a 3-way tie in the Black Hills Conference with Monessen, Clairton and Fort Cherry tying for the Conference Title at 7-1. Like with the Neshannock situation, Fort Cherry lost out on tiebreakers and had to go on the road. Monessen was given the #3 seed, Clairton the #4 seed and Fort Cherry the #12 seed with “inverted seeding” coming into play (TCS 2nd place Carmichaels was given the #5 seed so Fort Cherry was really the “true” #5 seed).
Given these trends and the teams that made the playoffs, here are my best guesses at how the brackets will shake out. We’ll know for sure on Monday night.
AAAA
Projected Seedings
1. Woodland Hills (7-0, 9-0) – Southeastern Conference Champion, have reached Heinz Field in 4 of the last 6 seasons.
2. Penn-Trafford (8-0, 9-0) – Foothills Conference Champion, reached the semi-finals each of the last two years.
3. Central Catholic (7-1, 8-1) – Won 3-way tie atop Northern Eight Conference for the Conference Title.
4. Pine-Richland (7-1, 8-1) – Defending AAAA Champions, 2nd place in the Northern Eight based on the 3-way tie.
5. North Allegheny (7-1, 8-1) – There is some thought to splitting up the Northern Eight teams into different quadrants, but given the WPIAL’s history of “clumping” 3-way ties, the Tigers will probably land here.
6. McKeesport (7-1, 8-1) – The Tigers only loss was to Penn-Trafford, which was the only time this season they were held under 42 points. Seeding them 6th prevents a 2nd round rematch with Penn-Trafford.
7. Mt Lebanon (6-1, 8-1) – Their only loss was a 21-17 defeat by top-seeded Woodland Hills, which could be enough to get them seeded 6th if the Committee does not want to separate McKeesport and Penn-Trafford.
8. Bethel Park (5-2, 6-3) – There was some confusion on my part over whether Bethel Park or Kiski got the last home game. It is Bethel Park. They are a dangerous team that was competitive in their 3 losses to Central Catholic, Woodland Hills and Mt Lebanon.
9. Seneca Valley (4-3, 5-4) – Seneca Valley’s only loss by more than 10 points was to Central Catholic.
10. Kiski (5-3, 5-4) – It will be interesting to see how the Committee handles Kiski and Plum. Kiski won head-to-head and is the 3rd place team in the Foothills but Plum has a better overall record (6-3 to 5-4).
11. Upper St Clair (4-3, 5-4) – The Panthers can’t be the #10 seed because they can’t play Mt Lebanon in the first round. If Mt Lebanon is given the #6 seed, expect Upper St Clair to be the #10 seed, playing McKeesport either way. This also avoids a rematch with North Allegheny in the 5-12 matchup.
12. Plum (5-3, 6-3) – Plum lost the 3rd place tiebreaker to Kiski based on head-to-head and can’t be the #11 seed because they are in the same conference as McKeesport. This drops them all the way to the #12 seed.
13. Norwin (4-4, 5-4) – 5th place in Foothills Conference. Lost to Hempfield but beat Kiski and Seneca Valley in a non-conference game.
14. Penn Hills (3-4, 3-6) – Last year’s Southeastern Conference Champion fell on some hard times this year.
15. North Hills (3-4, 3-6) – Since North Hills can’t play another Northern Eight team, they fall all the way to the 15-seed.
16. Hempfield (3-5, 3-6) – Won Quad-A Wild Card thanks to Altoona losing to Connellsville. Lost to previously-winless Fox Chapel in Week 9.
Projected Bracket
1. Woodland Hills vs 16. Hempfield
8. Bethel Park vs 9. Seneca Valley
4. Pine-Richland vs 13. Norwin
5. North Allegheny vs 12. Plum
2. Penn-Trafford vs 15. North Hills
7. Mt Lebanon vs 10. Kiski
3. Central Catholic vs 14. Penn Hills
6. McKeesport vs 11. Upper St Clair
AAA
Projected Seedings
1. Belle Vernon (9-0, 9-0) – The only undefeated team in AAA gets the #1 overall seed.
2. Central Valley (7-1, 8-1) – The defending AAA Champions and Parkway Conference Champions have not lost since a 17-14 Week 1 defeat by Montour.
3. Mars (7-1, 8-1) – Greater Allegheny Conference Champions whose only loss was to Franklin Regional.
4. West Allegheny (7-1, 7-2) – The WPIAL will likely want to separate West A and Central Valley into opposite halves of the bracket since they have met in the last two AAA Championship Games, providing the opportunity for a rematch.
5. Ringgold (8-1, 8-1) – The Rams reached the semifinals last year and their only loss this year was a 13-12 defeat by Belle Vernon.
6. Thomas Jefferson (7-2, 7-2) – The 6-8 seeds could go in any order. TJ’s losses were both early in the season in one-score games (a 4th-quarter comeback by Ringgold where TJ blew a 20-7 lead and an OT loss to Belle Vernon).
7. Montour (6-2, 7-2) – Beat Central Valley in Week 1 but suffered a rash of injuries which cost them a game against Chartiers Valley. Got hammered by North Allegheny. Both of their losses were to playoff teams, which is something Franklin Regional can’t say.
8. Franklin Regional (6-2, 7-2) – Beat Mars but lost to Hollidaysburg by 4 and Gateway by 3. Their loss to a non-playoff team drops them to 8th but the Panthers are still a quality team.
9. West Mifflin (6-3, 6-3) – The Titans fall into place here because Franklin Regional can’t face another GAC team in the first round.
10. Hollidaysburg (5-3, 6-3) – The Golden Tigers are in their last year of WPIAL competition and won the 3-way tie for 3rd in the GAC. The WPIAL has tweaked matchups in the past based on travel and could opt to put Hollidaysburg against Thomas Jefferson to give them a shorter trip than to Montour.
11. Hampton (5-3, 6-3) – The Talbots were part of the 3-way tie in the GAC but could get flipped with Hollidaysburg here to give better travel matchups (Hampton to Montour, Hollidaysburg to TJ).
12. Ambridge (4-4, 5-4) – Won the 3-way tie with New Castle and Chartiers Valley for 4th place in the Parkway. Parkway teams can not be seeded 13 or 15 because of where Central Valley and West Allegheny are at the top of the bracket, so Ambridge bumps up to 12 as the Bridgers make their first playoff appearance since 2005.
13. Armstrong (5-3, 6-3) – The Riverhawks, in the first year of their school’s existence after the merger of Kittanning and Ford City, get the short end of the stick as they lose the 3-way tie for 3rd then get bumped down to 13 because of matchups.
14. New Castle (4-4, 5-4) – Lost games to Central Valley and Ambridge with a number of players suspended due to a fight against Central Valley.
15. Laurel Highlands (5-4, 5-4) – 5th place in Big Ten Conference. Rode early-season wins over Elizabeth Forward and Trinity to the playoffs.
16. Chartiers Valley (4-4, 4-5) – Won AAA Wild Card based on Tiebreaker Points over Gateway. Beat Montour early in the season. This is as close to “clumping” as the 3-way tie in the Parkway can get because a Parkway team can not be the 15-seed because Central Valley is the #2 seed. Plus, the Wild Card getting the 16-seed makes sense.
Projected Bracket
1. Belle Vernon vs 16. Chartiers Valley
8. Franklin Regional vs 9. West Mifflin
4. West Allegheny vs 13. Armstrong
5. Ringgold vs 12. Ambridge
2. Central Valley vs 15. Laurel Highlands
7. Montour vs 10. Hollidaysburg
3. Mars vs 14. New Castle
6. Thomas Jefferson vs 11. Hampton
AA
Projected Seedings
1. South Fayette (8-0, 9-0) – The two-time defending AA State Champions are the easy choice for the top seed.
2. Aliquippa (8-0, 9-0) – Aliquippa’s only losses since 2010 have been to South Fayette at Heinz Field. They are 71-3 against WPIAL opponents in that time.
3. Washington (8-0, 9-0) – The Interstate Conference Champions will once again be the #3 seed.
4. Beaver Falls (7-1, 8-1) – The Tigers entered Week 9 undefeated and played Aliquippa tight for 3 quarters. This team is loaded with talented juniors and runs a 2-QB offense.
5. Steel Valley (7-1, 8-1) – Their only loss was to South Fayette and they beat Freeport in a non-conference game.
6. Freeport (8-0, 8-1) – The Yellow Jackets won the Allegheny Conference. They are building a new stadium for next year so this will be the last game ever played within the Borough of Freeport.
7. Mt Pleasant (7-1, 7-2) – Their only losses were to Washington and Aliquippa.
8. Highlands (6-2, 7-2) – Lost to Freeport and to archrival Valley, losing control of the Tarentum Bridge.
9. Seton-La Salle (6-2, 7-2) – The Rebels nearly knocked off South Fayette in Week 8. Both of their losses were by under 7 points.
10. Apollo-Ridge (5-3, 6-3) – The Vikings battled through injuries to reach the playoffs. Junior RB Duane Brown is the hottest back in the WPIAL right now, having rushed for 719 yards and 14 TDs in the last two weeks.
11. Beaver (6-2, 7-2) – Bobcat QB Darius Wise was just the 4th player in WPIAL history to rush and pass for 1000 yards in a season.
12. McGuffey (5-3, 6-3) – Won 3-way tiebreaker with Burgettstown and Derry for 3rd place in the Interstate Conference, based on Tiebreaker Points. Their true seed might be lower but Keystone Oaks can’t play Steel Valley in the first round.
13. Keystone Oaks (5-3, 5-4) – The Golden Eagles lost close games to both Apollo-Ridge and Seton-La Salle.
14. New Brighton (5-3, 5-4) – The Lions can’t be the #15 seed because Aliquippa is the #2 seed so this lifts them to the 14th slot.
15. Deer Lakes (5-3, 6-3) – The Lancers are making their second playoff appearance in school history. RB Hunter Burns is the WPIAL’s 2nd-leading rusher with 1801 yards and has 50 more attempts than any other back in the WPIAL.
16. Burgettstown (5-3, 5-4) – I was the only one who predicted Burgettstown would make the playoffs this year (MSA and the Post-Gazette both picked them 8th in the conference). Now that they’re here, they get South Fayette.
Projected Bracket
1. South Fayette vs 16. Burgettstown
8. Highlands vs 9. Seton-La Salle
4. Beaver Falls vs 13. Keystone Oaks
5. Steel Valley vs 12. McGuffey
2. Aliquippa vs 15. Deer Lakes
7. Mt Pleasant vs 10. Apollo-Ridge
3. Washington vs 14. New Brighton
6. Freeport vs 11. Beaver
A
Projected Seedings
1. Clairton (8-0, 9-0) – The defending Champions are the easy choice for the #1 seed after dominating the opposition as the highest scoring team in the WPIAL.
2. Cardinal Wuerl North Catholic (7-0, 9-0) – The Trojans won their 4th straight Conference Title and defeated Big Seven Champion Shenango in Week 9.
3. Jeannette (7-1, 8-1) – With Shenango’s loss to CWNC, it makes sense for 1-loss Jeannette to be the #3 overall seed. Clairton was the only team to hold Jeannette under 30 points this year (and barely, at 29).
4. Shenango (7-0, 7-2) – The Wildcats won the Big Seven Conference, their first Conference Title since 2003. However, they lost non-conference games to Avonworth and CWNC.
5. Neshannock (6-1, 8-1) – The Lancers have made the semi-finals each of the last 3 seasons. Their only loss was to Shenango.
6. Frazier (8-0, 9-0) – The biggest question is if the WPIAL will use any “inverted seeding.” If they do, Beth-Center could get this spot against either GCC or Avonworth (as the “true” #6 seeds). Frazier was the TCS Champion and allowed just 31 points all season.
7. Bishop Canevin (5-2, 6-3) – The Crusaders finished 2nd in the Black Hills Conference thanks to a surprising victory over Avonworth. They lost only one game (to CWNC) after switching quarterbacks in Week 4.
8. Beth-Center (7-1, 7-2) – The Bulldogs beat Bentworth in Week 9 to secure 2nd place in the TCS. They could be subjected to “inverted seeding” if the Committee wants to move GCC or Avonworth up in the “true seed” list.
9. Avonworth (6-2, 7-2) – The Lopes made the Championship Game last season but lost to Bishop Canevin which dropped them to the bottom half of the bracket. They can’t be the 10-seed with Bishop Canevin as the 7 and have a head-to-head win over South Side Beaver.
10. GCC (6-2, 7-2) – GCC’s only losses were to Clairton and Jeannette and they beat Beth-Center in a non-conference game. Because they already played Beth-Center and Avonworth can’t be seeded here, GCC falls to 10th.
11. South Side Beaver (5-2, 6-3) – The Rams made the playoffs for the second straight season, finishing 3rd in the Big Seven Conference.
12. Springdale (4-4, 5-4) – The Dynamos beat Monessen to get in but surprisingly lost to rival Riverview in Week 9.
13. Bentworth (6-2, 6-3) – The Bearcats made the playoffs for the first time since 2005 (I called this one too). Their two conference losses were close games with Frazier and Beth-Center but they got creamed by Jeannette.
14. Chartiers-Houston (4-3, 5-4) – The Bucs get the 14-seed because Jeannette already played Springdale and Bentworth this season. They can’t be the 15-seed because CWNC is the 2-seed so this is the natural place for them.
15. Union (4-3, 5-4) – The Scotties beat Rochester in Week 1 and rode that victory to the playoffs.
16. Carmichaels (5-3, 5-4) – The Mighty Mikes won a Casket Match with Jefferson-Morgan in Week 9 to make the playoffs.
Projected Bracket
1. Clairton vs 16. Carmichaels
8. Beth-Center vs 9. Avonworth
4. Shenango vs 13. Bentworth
5. Neshannock vs 12. Springdale
2. Cardinal Wuerl North Catholic vs 15. Union
7. Bishop Canevin vs 10. GCC
3. Jeannette vs 14. Chartiers-Houston
6. Frazier vs 11. South Side Beaver
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