Welcome to Football Friday, Apple Cup Style. After a long week of media coverage on every conceivable level, finally this game is just about a day away.
First, the usual business – don’t forget about the weekly pick’em. Once again, here’s the login info:
Group #1:
Go here.
Group: 14767
Password:gocougs
Group #2:
Go here.
Group: 16079
Password:wazzufbblog
Now, on to this week’s picks!
SUTRA SEZ:
Hello Followers. Hope your week has been great.
As for me, well, tomorrow marks the end of yet another season of clairvoyance regarding Cougar football games (Okay, not really).
As you know, outside of BH talking me into picking us to beat CAL, I’ve been perfect on picking the Cougs this year. So now, the heat is really on to figure out what is going to happen on Saturday.
And, after meditating on it for 1,000 cosmic hours, I am proud to announce the following:
I HAVE NO STINKING CLUE WHO IS GOING TO WIN THIS GAME!
I just keep on going back and forth and back and forth.
On one hand, I keep coming back to the burden of this long layoff. And because of the amount of time we’ve had off, I find myself being 100% convinced that that we’re going to come out flat.
And so, when I think of us coming out flat, I start to think that UW is going to kill us.
But then, when I think about us getting blown out early this Saturday, I keep on coming back to the fact that the UW has had only one good first quarter this year (Oregon State).
BUT then on the other hand, we have the issue of Washington’s bowl hopes. On one level, I think their bowl status will provide an additional level of motivation that will put them over the top. Then, on another level, I find myself thinking that as the game gets late (and if its close or we’re ahead) that they are going to get tight, tight, tight.
So, in the end, the game comes down to a few X factors for me:
1) Jermaine Kearse vs. Daniel Blackledge
A lot has been made this week about Chris Polk and Jake Locker. And for good reason. But ultimately, for the Dawgs to be successful, Locker is going to have to throw the ball. And if he throws it to Kearse a lot (and if he catches it!), then I think we’ll have a really hard time keeping them off the field.
Where the Cougs are concerned, everyone seems to want to talk about Jared Karstetter and Marquess Wilson. To be sure, we won’t win without a couple of BIG plays from those guys. But, in order for us to keep up, we’re going to need to be solid in the possession passing game, and that’s where Blackledge can be HUGE for us.
Moreover, when you factor in that Blackledge is playing his Senior Night, I actually have a bit of confidence that Danny B will be a difference maker.
2) The Crowd
When you look back at our past few performances at home—Oregon, Arizona, and CAL – we played tough, aggressive, and fast on defense. And that was when we were playing in front of 14,000 fans(?). IF there are 32,000 Cougars there on Saturday evening and IF those 32k stay for the entire game, I think there’s a good chance that we can replicate our effort against Oregon State. And we’ll need to.
Next, the “BIG” duh.
3) Jake Locker versus Jeff Tuel
This one should actually be called “Early Game” versus “Late Game.” Obviously, Jake is going to come out firing. And you can bet your bottom dollar that the Dawgs will put out everything in their offensive playbook to try to put us on our heels and take the crowd out of the game early. On top of that, Jake has obviously played the last two weeks which should enable him to have a huge edge on Tuel in setting the tempo early. Also, from what I’ve heard, Jake is kind of fast. And if we lose containment on him up the middle, he will KILL us.
On the flip side, my sense is that while Tuel may play tight early, the longer that this game stays close, the better he’ll play. And I’m not sure that I can say the same about Jake and those sore ribs.
In the end, the battle of Quarterbacks is going to be won in one category: TURNOVERS. Whoever throws the additional pick is going to be in the losing “locker”-room. And both have the tendency to throw high early in games.
4) Frozen ball versus Frozen ball
There’s been a lot of speculation this week about how the players will deal with snow and/or the cold. But what I haven’t heard much about is how that cold may affect the kicking game. Because Apple Cups are almost always close, whoever has the best experience kicking that frozen rock, may be the one carried off the field as time expires. So, here’s to hoping that Andrew Furney has been out in the middle of the night—every night—getting used to kicking that frozen boulder when its 21 degrees.
In the end, I think that we survive a tough opening quarter and run away with this one. While I believe that this game would be much different with a 100% healthy Jake Locker, I just am not convinced that he can bring all the intangibles associated with his A+ game with those ribs, the cold, and SO much at stake.
Moreover, when you look at how we’ve performed against defenses that just weren’t that great this season, we’ve moved the ball AND scored. And if you take at face value that, outside of Arizona State, we’ve held Arizona, CAL, and Oregon State to 24, 20, and 14 points respectively in our past three games.
So, I’m calling this one 31-20 Cougs. Could be the biggest homer pick of all time, but I’m banking that the Oregon State game was for real, and frankly, the team that won in Corvallis is better—especially at home—than what the Huskies have shown for the past 5-6 weeks.
Other games:
Arizona State 31 Arizona 29 (This was my pick before I realized that the game was coming on in five minutes—currently, it’s a 6-0 ASU lead in the third…..).
USC 24 UCLA 10. If UCLA had a passing game, this would be a tricky ricky classic upset.
Oregon 41 Oregon State 10. What’s better than going to the National Championship, knocking your rival out of bowl contention on THEIR field.
Enjoy the game (I know I won’t).
And go Cougs!
LUCAS COUG SEZ:
Good Friday to you Cougar fans. Well I guess this is the final Football Friday Post for us, and there are only three games on tap, as the Territorial Cup last night wasn’t part of the Yahoo Pick Em League. How about that finish in Tucson? Arizona hits the game tying touchdown inside of 30 seconds left in the game, and all they need to do is hit the PAT to clinch this thing. BLOCKED! Then in 2OT, another Arizona PAT was blocked and the Sun Devils are sending the Wildcats into a bowl game on a four game losing streak. Yikes.
Alright, here we go:
USC at UCLA: Man, how I wish the Cougars could play UCLA right now, instead of that close one we had back in early October. A smashing at the hands of Big Brother, and I would have to imagine there is some talk early next season of Neuheisel being on the hotseat. Then again, they are taking on a USC team that has lost two consecutive games. Somebody find me the last Trojans squad to lose three in a row. I think it was in 2001, which was Pete Carroll’s first season. Trojans 24 – Bruins 13.
The Civil War: No way, no how, does Oregon State win this game. After last week’s shellacking at Stanford, I don’t even see this thing being competitive. Forget the whole, well it’s a rivalry game. Well this is the same rivalry game that only 25 years or so back, ended in a 0-0 tie. Glad to see my Preseason Prediction of Oregon State finishing in the lower half come true. If the Ducks are up big going into the 3rd or 4th quarter, do you think Chip pulls his starters? Me neither. Oregon 49 – OSU 14.
The Apple Cup: Finally, not a Crapple Cup.
Washington comes into this one riding a two game winning streak, which is a foreign concept to football teams in our fair state. Neither of the last two teams the Huskies have played could muster anything on the offensive side of the ball, and it had nothing to do with the Huskies defense. Not trying to be a honk here, just the reality of the situation, that’s all.
So Jeff Tuel and Co. will be the first test for the UW defense in three weeks. I think a few things are important for the Cougs to win here.
First, is that they need to come out of the tunnel with the same intensity they did three weeks ago at Oregon State. If it takes a quarter to shake the rust on either side of the ball, we could be in trouble.
Second, contain Chris Polk and Jesse Callier. If we can do that early and often, it will force Jake to throw the ball, and the only coach in the league who probably dreads having to do that more is Jeff Tedford with Brock Mansion at the helm.
My final key to the game is our offensive and defensive line play. If we control the line of scrimmage like we did in Corvallis, then I think we win this game hands down.
This one tomorrow is for Jason Gesser in 2001 and 2002, Matt Kegel in 2003, and Alex Brink in 2006. Let’s rain on their parade boys! Cougs 34 – Huskies 28.
SEANHAWK SEZ:
Happy Friday Cougs. As my cohorts here at WSUFB have already weighed in, they make some excellent points on what’s up for this Saturday. But I have to agree with something Sutra said early on – this is a hard one to call, isn’t it? Let’s see what we have here:
1) A WSU team that has shown some real promise against Pac-10 competition this season (finally), with some tough losses where the margin of loss was considerably less than prior years under Paul Wulff. We saw good things vs. UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, Cal. The games were much, much closer than before. But still, they weren’t winning….until Corvallis.
But that’s the rub here, in asking a real question: Was that REALLY the big-time breakthrough the entire fan base has been holding out for, just the moment we’ve all be waiting for? Or was it a one-game mirage, where a shocked OSU team was coming off two “walk-off” losses, and oh yeah, staring down the idea that the hated U$C Trojans were coming to town the next week? Was it just total LETDOWN-CITY, where the Beavs hoped they could take a mental and physical break for a week, just roll out the uniforms and walk all over a last-place WSU team? A Beaver team missing one of their best talents in the program, James Rodgers, and also had some key losses on their defensive line, allowing Jeff Tuel to constantly break containment? Or was it really that the Cougs kicked down that proverbial door, and while the corner may not be turned just yet, they can finally at least see the road starting to curve just a bit??
I wish I knew the answer. But I don’t.
2) Next, we have a UW team that was left for dead at 3-6, but they have kinda/sorta circled the wagons the last two weeks. First they blacked out Montlake and beat a really uninteresting UCLA team down to some bad options at QB, and then beat a Cal team with a Berkeley Bear offense that might have set the sport back 50 years! Is it just me, or could the offenses UW has faced in UCLA and Cal be some of the worst Pac-10 offenses since, well….WSU circa 2008-2009!?!?
But credit should be given where credit is due, and UW today is 5-6 and one win from the postseason. Sarkisian showed some serious onions by going for the TD vs. Cal in a short-yardage situation, and now you have a team that also believes they have turned a corner of some kind, and that they have that signature moment. Now, Bob Condotta has them going to San Antonio with a victory, with a third place finish in the Pac-10 to boot!
Think about that for a moment – with a win, UW would finish only behind Oregon and Stanford in the Pac-10?? A UW team that was 3-6 just two weeks ago?? WTF is up with that??
Anyway, the Huskies are OH-SO-CLOSE to finally getting back to the postseason. And in what looks like a pretty miserable winter around the great NW, wouldn’t a trip to the sun be a wonderful thing to warm up the bones!?
But, uh….they still have to, you know, WIN on Saturday. So there’s that. If history can teach us anything, and I am sure our UW friends know this, but I would hold off making reservations until the final seconds have ticked off the scoreboard??
As far as the game goes, something struck me earlier this week when reading about rivalry games. A quote from Steve Sarkisian, no less, in talking about a USC loss to UCLA in ’06 when SC could have gone back to the BCS title game for the third year in a row, was interesting to say the least. He said that in that game, the worst thing for USC is that they did NOT START FAST ENOUGH. They kind of slogged through the early part of that game, as UCLA played inspired, emotional football as a big underdog, shut down USC’s running game, and just hung around for most of the game. Sarkisian said that the more that game stayed close, you could see the emotion and better yet, the confidence rise on the UCLA sideline. Sure enough, the Bruins ruined SC’s party, as the Trojans lost that day and had to settle for another Rose Bowl (ho-hum).
But just that quote about starting fast in a game like this has me believing that UW is going to throw every possible thing they can early in this game. They are going to go for the knockout, folks, with haymakers thrown from every direction in the first couple of rounds. They are going to go for a quick two-or-three score lead, and then will try to grind out the rest of the game behind Chris Polk, Jesse Callier and a big, fat offensive line that will like nothing more than to lean on a less-than-stout Coug D-line for the second half. And is there anything more effective than to go out early in a big road game and get a quick lead, taking the crowd out of it as fast as possible? So, you know what the strategy is going to be tomorrow. UW is going for it, and they are going for it early.
However, that said, if the Cougs are within a TD or less after the first quarter, we’re in a barnburner until the end. But if they get down by two scores or more after that first quarter, well…..it could be a long, tough day my friends.
I believe the Cougs will be within a score after that first quarter. I believe we will see a barn-burner. And I believe it will come down to the kicking game, late, that decides this thing.
And that’s where we’re going to come up a wee bit short.
UW’s kicking game is just better, and while Eric Folk has had a bit of a down year, he is experienced with the whole big-kick-at-the-end-of-games thing. He has beaten USC TWICE the last two years on last-second, pressure filled field goals, and I see no reason why he won’t be able to do that again this week. And that’s exactly what I think is going to happen.
While I’m taking the 6.5 points as a home underdog in a rivalry game (shouldn’t you always take the home underdog in rivalry games??), and WSU did cover as a home dog in ’08, they will cover again this year. But Locker will lead them on a drive late in the game, and Folk will overcome the ghost of Chuck Nelson and makes the game winner. UW goes bowling, 23-21.
BOO, I know. I hope I’m wrong, just as much as you do. I shouldn’t be picking UW to win, I’m a Coug and all that. But that’s just the honest way I see it, that’s all.
And don’t fret Cougs. Brighter days are ahead of us, and this should be the end of 2-win world for WSU. As coach Wulff has said repeatedly this week, WSU is a potential bowl team next year when you look at who is back in 2011. So it will get better, and it will get better as soon as next year.
Other games:
USC at UCLA: UCLA is awful right now, USC is in that muddling middle of the Pac-10. If Barkley is good to go, SC rolls, 31-13.
The Civil War: The Beavs are playing for bowl eligibility, but the Quacks are too close to blow it now….aren’t they?? While it’s a rivalry game and all that, and some teams have hung around with Oregon this year, can you really imagine this Oregon State team playing a complete four-quarter game against THIS Oregon team? It might be close for the first half, as Oregon has been in some tight ones the last several games up until the third quarter, but they will run away and hide in the second half. Ducks 38, Beavs 21.
All for now. We’ll be back tomorrow with the usual flag-spotting, plus we might have another video or two later today for your enjoyment from Apple Cup’s past (did YA SEE the 1994 Palouse Posse Apple Cup highlights from yesterday?? WOW!).
As always, GO COUGS!
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