Yan Gomes: Mr. Clutch?

Stats accurate from prior to 9/15. Gomes added two more late and close hits last night as well in two at bats.

Probably the most disappointing player in 2015, Yan Gomes came into the year with lofty expectations only to have them shattered by a knee injury that kept him out of the game for two months early on. He didn’t even get enough time before it to establish himself this year before getting knocked out and once he returned, he didn’t look anything like his previous two seasons.

Month by month, Gomes hasn’t particularly improved either. Below are his slash lines for each month this season. The first two can largely be ignored as he played in just the first week of April and the last week of May.

After a fairly decent July, Gomes has seen both his average and on base percent drop each of the last two months. Of particular note, however, is that his slugging percent has risen to the highest point of the season in recent days. This was largely thanks to two home runs on September 1st as four of his seven hits have went for extra bases.

One thing this recent increase power rate has done is continued the perception that Gomes has been clutch. Clutch is often a term used to compliment a player who has otherwise done little to impress. Other than Gomes, the top three hitters in games that are late and close (with at least 30 AB) are Lonnie Chisenhall (.973 OPS), Francisco Lindor (.952) and Michael Brantley (.924). However, to simply label these players as “clutch” performers is unfair. Brantley has had an OPS of .888 in all situations and has the same .320 average in both clutch and unclutch situations. Lindor’s .813 OPS in all situations isn’t far off either and most of Chisenhall’s “clutch” success has come in his recent return to Cleveland since which point he holds a .850 OPS.

These players have been good hitters and deserve credit for being so. They shouldn’t have anything taken away by the idea that they only come through when it matters. They are all talented hitters and, while they have been slightly better in these situations and that is a good thing, they are always talented. When someone succeeds only in clutch situations, it’s largely more to do with the amount of situations provided and the luck to have their few hits fall in at those times.

In late and close situations, Gomes is batting an unbelievable .500/.535/.825 in 40 at bats. Of the Indians 15 home runs in these situations this year, Gomes has four and no other player has more than two. During one stretch this year, from August 7th through 13th, Gomes knocked in runs in five straight games for eight total. For comparison, Nick Swisher knocked in eight runs total in 30 games this season.

While he hit .381 over that short span, expanding it out a little wider includes even more “clutch play,” but much less consistency. From July 29th through August 19th, he batted .250, but slugged .484 and knocked in 16 with four home runs and three doubles. Most important to note, the Indians went 9-7 during that span and outscored their opponents 89-57. While his 22 runs created (RBI+R-HR) were considerable, he had a ton of opportunities as the entire team was playing well.

It may seem callous to dismiss Gomes’ incredible play in these most pivotal of times as luck and just an odd distribution of hits, but the Indians have seen plenty of extended abnormal play in recent years. Look no further than the first four starts from Cody Anderson, where he outpitched Corey Kluber as a talented, but not that good, rookie or any random sampling of a few months of Chisenhall.

The only way it could be anything else is if Gomes has a distinctly different plan at the plate in those clutch situations. If that is the case, the answer to solving his problems in general would just be to use that outlook in all his at bats and if he is not doing that already, one has to greatly question Gomes, manager Terry Francona and hitting coach Ty Van Burkleo. Proof that this is not the case can be seen as easily as comparing those incredible “clutch” stats listed before to his numbers with general runners in scoring position .165/.253/.354. If he has this switch to turn on late in games when it matters, why wouldn’t he flip it earlier on when he is in situations that could ultimately lead to an easier win?

If we can admit that Gomes has been incredibly lucky in these situations (he holds a BABIP of more than .500), we can look at how unlucky he has been in other situations. On the season, Gomes has a .263 BABIP overall, a far drop from his career mark of .308 and his numbers as a starter with the Indians which has been over .325 both years. While this could be expected based on a few factors, Gomes doesn’t have any of those. He continues to hit balls hard in about 30% of his at bats, has pulled balls at a similar rate (38.2% compared to 42.2% in his career) and actually been hitting more line drives than usual (26.8% compared to 22.4% career).

In short, Gomes has been hitting the ball as hard as ever and in the same places he usually does, but has been getting different results. His slight decrease in bat speed is likely due to his early struggles when returning from injury as he appears to be hitting balls as hard as he ever has right now. They simply are just not falling in.

Unfortunately, there’s no real way to tell how long this is going to last. The good news is that Gomes is doing all the right things (or at least as right as he did them in 2013 and 2014) and as long as he continues working, things should turn around. Just as no one should over accentuate his success in 40 “clutch” at bats, too much woe shouldn’t be placed on his struggles in other situations. Chances are, things will balance out as the season ends (as things already have in bases loaded situations for the team) and by next year, we should be able to talk about 2015 as an aberration in a generally great career.